- 1 Phoenix Mercury vs Dallas Wings: an instant rematch, 48 hours after a five-point gap
- 2 Phoenix Mercury: a grim record, but a team that is still showing up
- 3 Dallas Wings: the standings matter, but the margin has shrunk
- 4 WNBA prediction Phoenix Mercury vs Dallas Wings
- 5 First, a word on our free picks
- 6 No commitment from us
- 7 Information changes
- 8 Your role
- 9 Responsible gambling first
- 10 Legal age
- 11 About the images…
Phoenix Mercury vs Dallas Wings: an instant rematch, 48 hours after a five-point gap 
The two teams already met on Saturday at College Park Center in Arlington. Dallas came out on top 87-82, a five-point margin that fits pretty neatly with what should happen on Monday.
That result deserves a closer look. The Wings were laying 10.5 points on the handicap, and Phoenix wiped out that cushion without ever taking the lead.
But the sporting situations are heading in opposite directions. Mercury are mathematically out and were sitting 12th in a 15-team league when play resumed on 17 September.
Dallas, by contrast, are still fighting for their place in the final standings. The regular season ends on 24 September, the playoffs start on 27 September, and the first round is best-of-three with home-court advantage for the higher seed.
Even so, Phoenix come into this one with a weapon that gets overlooked at the back end of a season. On 17 September, Mercury went to Portland and won 94-91 thanks to 22 points from rookie Shay Ciezki.
The late-season schedule puts the same pressure on both teams. Both are playing their third game in five days after a two-week break linked to the FIBA World Cup.
That squeeze doesn’t carry the same cost for both benches. Dallas still have to keep the pace up until 24 September, while Phoenix can play out the final stretch with nothing on the line.
The game is at Mortgage Matchup Center in Phoenix, at 04:00 Paris time in the early hours of Monday into Tuesday, live on USA Network. The venue flips from Saturday.
Phoenix Mercury: a grim record, but a team that is still showing up 
Before Saturday’s trip to Arlington, Mercury were 15-26, including 9 wins from 21 away games. The defeat to the Wings pushed that record to 15-27.
That kind of record has long since ended Phoenix’s season. The franchise is out and has nothing left to protect before 24 September.
The actual performances tell a slightly different story. Holding Dallas to five points in a road game, after being marked as a double-digit underdog, says plenty about a team that still finishes what it starts.
The 94-91 win in Portland on 17 September points the same way. Shay Ciezki, undrafted out of Indiana, scored 22 points in 21 minutes in just her fifth game of the season.
Fifteen of those 22 came in a 3:52 burst. That kind of bench scoring changes the feel of a tight finish.
Phoenix’s main edge remains its home floor. The Mercury have only 9 wins in 21 road games, which tells you where most of their value has come from this season.
The problem is clear and it’s built in: a side with nothing left to play for rarely closes games like a team chasing position. That’s where gaps open up in September.
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Dallas Wings: the standings matter, but the margin has shrunk 
Dallas arrived on Saturday at 25-16, with a strong record in front of their own crowd. The 87-82 win over Phoenix took the Wings to 26 victories.
It still counts, obviously. But the way they got there raises questions. A team giving 10.5 points and winning by five against an out-of-contention opponent leaves room for scrutiny.
The schedule offers part of the answer. Back-to-back meetings against the same opponent in 48 hours, with a flight to Arizona in between, eats into rotations late in the regular season.
The repeat matchup also tends to help the team that lost the first one. Phoenix have had two days to work out what went wrong in Arlington.
Still, the pressure is all on Dallas. Every win from here to 24 September affects where the Wings land in the first round, and therefore how many games they get at home.
That naturally pushes Dallas toward shorter rotations and longer minutes for the starters. Against a team with nothing on the line, the intensity gap usually shows up in the final five minutes.
So the key question is whether the Wings can produce the same level away from home. Their season has been built on a much stronger return in Dallas than on the road.
WNBA prediction Phoenix Mercury vs Dallas Wings
Our prediction: Dallas Wings to win
Dallas won the first meeting 87-82 with a group still fighting for seeding, against a Mercury side with nothing left to chase. That difference in motivation usually tells late in a regular season.
The records point the same way: 26-16 for the Wings, 15-27 for Phoenix after Saturday’s game. An 11-win gap over 42 games is no fluke.
The only real counterpoint is home court, because Phoenix have done most of their damage in Arizona. It doesn’t erase the gap in records or the very clear difference in stakes.
The play is Dallas to win at Mortgage Matchup Center. The margin is likely to be tighter than the table suggests, but the Wings have too much to lose to let this one slip.
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