- 1 Uzbekistan vs Iran: three defeats against three draws at the World Cup, two records miles apart
- 2 Uzbekistan: 11 goals conceded in three World Cup matches
- 3 Iran: unbeaten at the World Cup and driven by the competition’s top scorer
- 4 Football prediction Uzbekistan vs Iran
- 5 First, a quick word on our free picks
- 6 No commitment from us
- 7 Information changes
- 8 Your responsibility
- 9 Responsible gambling first
- 10 Legal age
- 11 About the visuals…
Uzbekistan vs Iran: three defeats against three draws at the World Cup, two records miles apart 
Uzbekistan lost all three of its group-stage matches at the 2026 World Cup. Iran, in the same section, did not lose once, and that gap in form sets up Thursday’s 16:00 Paris-time clash.
The game takes place at Istiqlol Stadium in Fergana, far from Tashkent. It is an international friendly, with nothing on the line, but one squeezed into a packed window for both federations.
Uzbekistan’s numbers are brutal. A 3-1 loss to Colombia on 18 June, a 5-0 hammering by Portugal on 23 June, then a 3-1 defeat to DR Congo on 27 June: 11 goals conceded in three games, two scored.
Iran put together the mirror image with similarly limited firepower. A 2-2 draw with New Zealand on 16 June, a 0-0 draw with Belgium on 21 June, a 1-1 draw with Egypt on 27 June: three goals scored, three conceded.
The 0-0 draw with Belgium remains the clearest marker of Iran’s run. Holding a side of that calibre for 90 minutes takes an organised block and collective discipline Uzbekistan simply haven’t shown this summer.
The warm-up friendlies had already split the two teams. Iran hit Costa Rica for five on 31 March and Mali for two on 4 June, while Uzbekistan lost 2-0 in Canada on 2 June.
Fergana adds another wrinkle. Istiqlol Stadium is not Uzbekistan’s usual home ground, which slightly reduces the home edge in a match with no table pressure at all.
Uzbekistan: 11 goals conceded in three World Cup matches 
Uzbekistan’s first World Cup appearance ended in three defeats. The total of 11 goals shipped in three matches is the hardest number to talk down.
The 5-0 loss to Portugal on 23 June was the low point. The team held out for one half before folding after the break.
The other two outings followed the same pattern. Behind, then back level against Colombia and DR Congo, the side scored in both games but never managed to build any momentum.
The build-up had at least offered a few decent signs. A 3-1 win over Gabon on 27 March and a 0-0 draw with Venezuela three days later hinted at a defensive balance the tournament ruthlessly exposed as false.
The trip to the Netherlands tells the real story. Beaten 2-1 in Amsterdam on 8 June, the side did manage to score against a top European defence, which remains its best attacking argument of the year.
Eldor Shomurodov is still the main man up front, with one goal in the latest recorded appearances. Urozov and Sergeev add to that output, which shows an attack leaning on several sources rather than one dominant finisher.
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Iran: unbeaten at the World Cup and driven by the competition’s top scorer 
Iran left the 2026 World Cup without losing a group match. Three draws against New Zealand, Belgium and Egypt were enough to build a record few Asian sides can match.
The other side of the story is just as clear. Three goals in three matches show a failure to turn pressure into wins, and it cost them progression despite the strength of their back line.
Mehdi Taremi still carries most of the load. With four goals in his last four recorded appearances for the national team, he is miles ahead of Iran’s internal scoring chart.
The spring friendlies showed this attack can cut loose. The 5-0 win over Costa Rica on 31 March remains Iran’s biggest victory of the calendar year.
The only recent defeat came against Nigeria, 2-1 on 27 March. Since then, the results have been positive, including a 2-0 win over Mali on 4 June and a 0-0 draw with Gambia on 29 May.
Mohebbi and Rezaeian look like the most reliable support acts around Taremi. That spread of attacking responsibility gives Iran more ways to unlock a tight game than Uzbekistan.
Likely Uzbekistan line-up: Not announced at time of publication.
Likely Iran line-up: Not announced at time of publication.
Football prediction Uzbekistan vs Iran
Our pick: Iran to win
Iran have not lost since 27 March and that 2-1 defeat to Nigeria. Over the same stretch, Uzbekistan have lost five of their last six matches, including all three at the World Cup.
The defensive gap says it all. Eleven goals conceded in three World Cup matches for the hosts, three for Iran in the same number of games against opponents of a similar level.
Calling this a friendly does not flatten the difference between the two sides. Iran should edge it in Fergana, with Taremi leading the line and a block that neither Belgium nor Egypt managed to break more than once this summer.
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