- 1 Wales vs Japan: Rees-Zammit starts, and 43-0 still hangs over Cardiff
- 2 Wales: 39 against Fiji, nil against South Africa and three uncapped names in the squad
- 3 Japan: 27-10 over Italy, but home defeats to France and Ireland
- 4 Free Rugby Prediction: Wales vs Japan
- 5 About our free predictions
- 6 No commitment from us
- 7 Information changes
- 8 Your responsibility
- 9 Responsible gambling
- 10 Legal age
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Wales vs Japan: Rees-Zammit starts, and 43-0 still hangs over Cardiff
Rees-Zammit is named on the wing for Wales, and Dewi Lake leads the side from hooker. South Africa beat Wales 43-0 in July, and that’s the result Steve Tandy’s team has to put right at the Principality Stadium.
Japan are the visitors on Saturday 7 November, 16:40 UK time, in round four of the Nations Championship. Wales have five points and a points difference of minus 42, Japan four and minus 26, and only Fiji and Italy are below them in the competition’s table.
Wales have won seven of their nine meetings with Japan. They also came from behind twice to win against them in last year’s friendly series, so there’s little in the record that should trouble them on home soil.
New Zealand come to Cardiff on 14 November and Australia on 21 November. That makes this the Wales game with the clearest chance of a win in this window, and it’s the one I’d expect them to chase hard.
I’ve got the win down as likely. The more useful question is the margin, and Wales’ 39-24 against Fiji in July is the best guide to how far they can go.
Wales: 39 against Fiji, nil against South Africa and three uncapped names in the squad 
July brought three very different results. Wales beat Fiji 39-24 with a bonus point, lost 35-21 to Argentina and then lost 43-0 to South Africa.
The bonus point against Fiji is why they’re ahead of Japan in the table. Their points difference of minus 42 is mostly the Springbok game, and they only narrowly missed a losing bonus against Argentina.
Tandy has named a 39-man squad for November with Rhys Barratt, Aneurin Owen and Che Hope uncapped. Taine Basham, Seb Davies and Rio Dyer have been recalled.
Dafydd Jenkins is back in the second row after missing July with a shoulder injury, and he packs down alongside Carter, with Mann and Morgan in the back row.
The half-backs are Tomos Williams and Costelow, with Wainwright listed at eight. Llewellyn and James are the centres, and Murray, Rees-Zammit and Adams make up the back three.
The Six Nations brought a win over Italy and two narrow defeats, to Scotland and Ireland. Wales have shown they can stay close to good sides at home, and Japan aren’t at that level on this year’s results.
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Japan: 27-10 over Italy, but home defeats to France and Ireland 
Japan beat Italy 27-10 in this competition, and lost at home to Ireland and to France, who won 42-15 in Tokyo.
That’s why the minus 26 looks like the fairer number to judge them on. Italy have no points after three rounds, and that was the only one of the three games Japan won.
Japan’s most useful recent comparison is a 34-28 defeat by Fiji in a friendly a few weeks ago, and that’s a side Wales beat by 15.
They’ve had good moments in 2026. Pacific Nations Cup wins over the USA and Fiji, plus a clear home win over Canada, show a team that can score at home against sides of a similar level.
Against top opposition the picture changes. They lost twice to Australia in the summer, and they’ve been beaten by France and Ireland since.
Their team for Cardiff hadn’t been named at the time of writing. They sit second-bottom of their group on four points.
Probable lineup Wales: Murray; Rees-Zammit, James, Llewellyn, Adams; Costelow, Tomos Williams; Wainwright, Morgan, Mann; Carter, Jenkins; Griffin, Lake (c), Smith
Probable lineup Japan: Not announced at time of publication
Free Rugby Prediction: Wales vs Japan
Our prediction: Wales to win by 15 points or more at odds of 1.72
I’d take Wales by 15 or more at 1.72. They beat Fiji by exactly that margin in July, and Japan lost to the same Fijian side in a friendly a few weeks ago.
The 43-0 in South Africa is the honest concern, because it shows how badly this side can fall away. That came against the side level on top of the southern group, and this is a home game in Cardiff against a team on four points.
Seven wins from nine in this fixture and a stronger pack with Jenkins back point the same way. I’d expect something around 35-17.
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