- 1 Scotland vs New Zealand: no Scottish win yet, and 93 All Black points in October
- 2 Scotland: 47 in Argentina, 42 conceded in South Africa and Tuipulotu’s side back together
- 3 New Zealand: 93 points in two Tests against Australia after three defeats in South Africa
- 4 Free Rugby Prediction: Scotland vs New Zealand
- 5 About our free predictions
- 6 No commitment from us
- 7 Information changes
- 8 Your responsibility
- 9 Responsible gambling
- 10 Legal age
- 11 About visuals
Scotland vs New Zealand: no Scottish win yet, and 93 All Black points in October
Scotland have never beaten New Zealand. The closest they’ve come is the 25-25 draw at Murrayfield in November 1983, and the last five meetings have all gone to the All Blacks, by eight, eight, five, eight and 29 points.
That record comes back to Scottish Gas Murrayfield on Saturday 7 November, 14:10 UK time, and the ground is sold out. It’s round four of the Nations Championship, with Scotland on 11 points and New Zealand on 15.
Four of those five margins were eight points or fewer. Scotland lost 25-17 here last November, which is the reason I’d be careful with any big handicap.
New Zealand arrive after two heavy wins over Australia: 50-19 on 10 October and 43-21 on 17 October. Before that they’d lost three Tests in a row in South Africa, 33-26, 29-24 and 43-28.
The world rankings have them second and Scotland ninth. I’d say that gap is fair.
Scotland: 47 in Argentina, 42 conceded in South Africa and Tuipulotu’s side back together 
Scotland took two wins from three in July. They beat Argentina 47-38 and Fiji 33-17, and lost 42-28 to South Africa in between, which leaves a points difference of plus 11.
That’s plenty of points, and also plenty conceded. Eighty conceded in the first two of those Tests tells me this attack can score against anyone and this defence can’t yet stop the best sides.
Gregor Townsend delayed naming his squad so players could prove form in the URC. Graham, Ritchie and van der Merwe all return from injury, while Kinghorn and Huw Jones have recently recovered from knocks.
Grant Gilchrist misses out after his own return from injury, and Ollie Leatherbarrow of Newcastle is the only new call-up in the 37. Sione Tuipulotu is captain, and Finn Russell is in the squad.
The Six Nations gave them something to hold on to. They beat France 50-40 at home on 7 March.
A week later they lost 43-21 in Dublin. Those two results sum up where Scotland have been all year, and neither says much about how they’ll start on Saturday.
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New Zealand: 93 points in two Tests against Australia after three defeats in South Africa 
The All Blacks have the second-best points difference in the competition at plus 51, behind South Africa’s plus 81. All three of their July wins came with bonus points, over Italy, Ireland and France.
The South Africa tour matters more than it looks. They beat all four franchises in friendlies, won the first Test and then lost the next three, conceding 105 points across those defeats.
Australia then conceded 93 to them in two October Tests. New Zealand scored 50 and 43, and that’s the form they bring to Edinburgh after three weeks without a Test.
They’ve scored 25, 31 and 22 in the last three visits to Scotland. They’ve also won those three games by eight, eight and five, and I’d want more than a good October before pricing them much higher.
Their matchday team hasn’t been confirmed at the time of writing, and it’s expected closer to kick-off.
A trip to Wales follows on 14 November, so there’s no reason to hold anything back here. New Zealand are level on points with South Africa at the top of the southern group.
Probable lineup Scotland: Not announced at time of publication
Probable lineup New Zealand: Not announced at time of publication
Free Rugby Prediction: Scotland vs New Zealand
Our prediction: New Zealand half-time/full-time at odds of 1.52
I’d back New Zealand to lead at half-time and win the match, at 1.52. They’ve never lost to Scotland and they’ve scored 93 points in their last two Tests.
Scotland’s 25-17 last November and the 50-40 over France are the case for a closer game, and that’s why I’d stay away from a big handicap. A lead at the break doesn’t need a big margin, and it’s what the All Blacks’ October form points to.
I’d expect a final score around 30-20, with New Zealand ahead from the first half onwards.
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