- 1 Wales vs Denmark: a first win of 2026 against an 18-year unbeaten run
- 2 Wales Analysis
- 3 Denmark Analysis
- 4 Free Football Prediction: Wales vs Denmark
- 5 About our free predictions
- 6 No commitment from us
- 7 Information changes
- 8 Your responsibility
- 9 Responsible gambling
- 10 Legal age
- 11 About visuals
Wales vs Denmark: a first win of 2026 against an 18-year unbeaten run 
Wales have not beaten Denmark since a 1-0 friendly win in November 2008. That run, highlighted by Sports Mole, is the starting point for Sunday’s meeting at the Cardiff City Stadium, kick-off at 20:45 Paris time, on matchday four of the Nations League.
The group table adds pressure on both sides. Wales, Denmark and Norway are all level on three points behind Portugal, so this match can separate the chasing pack before the November games.
The two teams met seven days ago in Copenhagen. Denmark won 2-0, with a Ben Davies own goal soon after the restart and a second from Gustav Isaksen, according to Bet Experts.
Thursday’s results then pulled the two sides in opposite directions. Wales came from behind to beat Norway 2-1 in Cardiff, while Denmark lost 4-2 at home to Portugal.
The context of that Welsh win needs to be read correctly. Norway played a full half with ten men after Torbjorn Heggem was sent off straight after the restart, and the Welsh winner came from the free-kick that followed.
The bookmakers still trust the visitors. RueDesJoueurs lists Denmark at 1.89, the draw at 3.80 and Wales at 3.70, with Bet Experts showing a best price of 1.96 for the away win.
The question is whether one result against ten men changes the balance between these two squads. The head-to-head, the scoring data and the team news all suggest it does not.
Denmark’s experience at this level also matters. Sports Mole counts 13 wins, five draws and nine defeats in 27 Nations League matches, and this is their fourth straight campaign in League A.
The previews do not fully agree. Sports Mole expects a 2-2 draw, while RueDesJoueurs and Bet Experts both back the away win, a split that comes down to how much credit Wales deserve for Thursday.
The goals markets reflect that uncertainty. Bet Experts lists over 2.5 goals at 1.77 and both teams to score at 1.70, prices that point to an open game.
Wales Analysis 
Craig Bellamy’s side opened the campaign with two defeats. They lost 1-0 in Lisbon to a Joao Felix goal on 22 minutes, then 2-0 in Copenhagen three days later.
Thursday changed the mood. Oscar Bobb put Norway ahead after 11 minutes, Daniel James equalised from a Sorba Thomas cross on 38, and Neco Williams scored the winner from a free-kick on 48.
The broader numbers remain weak. Bet Experts notes that the Norway game was Wales’ first win of 2026, and that they had gone eight top-tier Nations League matches without a win before it.
Scoring is the main problem. Wales have two goals in three group games, both on Thursday and the second after the red card, which limits how much weight that result can carry.
The absence list is long. Sports Mole lists Harry Wilson, Nathan Broadhead, Karl Darlow, Joe Rodon, Dylan Lawlor, Rubin Colwill and Isaak Davies as unavailable through injury.
Bellamy is expected to keep the side that beat Norway. Daniel James should continue on the left, with Lewis Koumas leading the line through the middle.
The historical record is heavy. Sports Mole counts four wins and eight defeats in 12 meetings with Denmark, including four straight losses, among them the 4-0 at Euro 2020 and last week’s 2-0.
no renewal
Free for 2 weeks.
Denmark Analysis 
Brian Riemer’s side have a clear profile in this campaign. They have scored twice in all three group games, and they have also conceded seven goals, per Bet Experts.
The opener in Oslo ended 3-2 to Norway, with Erling Haaland scoring the winner on 74 minutes after Denmark had recovered from two goals down. The 2-0 win over Wales followed, built largely on Mikkel Damsgaard, who created both goals and hit a post.
Thursday’s 4-2 defeat to Portugal at Parken was more competitive than the score suggests. Damsgaard levelled on 23 minutes, Rasmus Hojlund made it 2-2 on 53, before Vitinha and Felix settled it late.
Hojlund is in form. Sports Mole notes he has scored twice in three matches this window, and he is expected to lead the line again.
The squad is in good shape overall. No injuries were reported after the Portugal match and nobody is suspended, although Patrick Dorgu withdrew from the squad earlier through injury.
Morten Hjulmand and Hojbjerg should anchor midfield. That pairing gives Denmark a level of control that Wales have struggled to match in recent meetings.
There is one scar from this year to keep in mind. RueDesJoueurs and Bet Experts both recall that Denmark missed the World Cup after losing the play-off final to the Czech Republic on penalties on 31 March.
Probable lineup Wales: Ward; Williams, Cabango, Davies, Dasilva; Ampadu, J. James; D. James, Cullen, Thomas; Koumas
Probable lineup Denmark: Hermansen; Kristensen, Andersen, Provstgaard, Maehle; Hjulmand, Hojbjerg; Daghim, Damsgaard, Daramy; Hojlund
Free Football Prediction: Wales vs Denmark
Our prediction: Denmark to win at 1.89
Denmark have scored twice in every group game and beat Wales 2-0 only seven days ago. Their defeat on Thursday came against Portugal, a level of opponent Wales do not represent.
Wales’ win over Norway rests on a single half played against ten men. Without Wilson, Rodon, Broadhead and several others, the hosts have produced two goals in three matches, which is not enough to trouble a side that scores this consistently.
The head-to-head has gone Denmark’s way since 2008, and the current team news reinforces that trend. Denmark to win at 1.89 is the logical conclusion of the data.
in your pocket.
Real-time notifications & alerts
_________
About our free predictions
- What we publish on MathOdds are analyses, nothing more. We share a view, a reading of the moment, but never a guarantee. Sport remains what it is: unpredictable. A red card, an injury, a last-minute goal, and the script changes completely.
- Let’s be clear: there is no such thing as a risk-free bet. Even when it looks “obvious”, nothing ever is. And yes, that means you can lose. It’s even inevitable at some point.
- The smartest approach is to stay reasonable. Bet small, set a budget and stick to it. Never use money you need to live on. And above all: don’t chase your losses, that rarely ends well.
- A bet should remain a game, not a job or a source of income. If it starts taking up too much space in your daily life, causes stress or frustration, take a break. And if needed, talk to a support organisation: that’s what they’re there for.
- Ultimately, responsibility lies with you. Reading our content means accepting that risk exists and will never disappear, no matter how good the analysis.
- Essential reminder: gambling is prohibited for minors and must comply with the laws of your country. Need help? Visit begambleaware.org.
No commitment from us
Our predictions carry no contractual value. They have no legal standing. In short: you cannot rely on them to claim anything if a bet doesn’t come through.
Information changes
A prediction is always based on what we know at the time of writing. But between publication and kick-off, a lineup can change, a player picks up an injury, the weather turns, and the analysis can quickly be outdated. We cannot be held responsible for that.
Your responsibility
Before placing a bet, simply check that gambling is legal in your country. If it isn’t, that’s your responsibility, not ours.
Responsible gambling
We can’t say it enough: gamble responsibly. If you’re struggling to stay in control, don’t wait to seek help.
Legal age
MathOdds content is intended for adults only. By browsing here, you confirm you meet the legal age requirement for gambling in your jurisdiction.
About visuals
The images and logos of Wales and Denmark on MathOdds are used solely to illustrate our articles. They do not imply any official affiliation with a federation or sports organisation, and we claim no rights over them. Those rights belong to their original owners. If any visual raises a concern, contact us and it will be removed without delay.
Leave a Reply