- 1 Tampa Bay Buccaneers vs Green Bay Packers: an undrafted rookie takes the keys in Tampa
- 2 Tampa Bay Buccaneers Analysis
- 3 Green Bay Packers Analysis
- 4 Free NFL Prediction: Tampa Bay Buccaneers vs Green Bay Packers
- 5 About our free predictions
- 6 No commitment from us
- 7 Information changes
- 8 Your responsibility
- 9 Responsible gambling
- 10 Legal age
- 11 About visuals
Tampa Bay Buccaneers vs Green Bay Packers: an undrafted rookie takes the keys in Tampa 
The Tampa Bay Buccaneers host the Green Bay Packers on Sunday 4 October at Raymond James Stadium, in Week 4 of the NFL season. Kick-off is set for 19:00 Paris time (1:00 p.m. ET), with FOX carrying the game in the United States.
The two records frame the analysis. Tampa Bay are 0-3, while Green Bay are 1-2 after a 35-14 home defeat to Atlanta on Thursday Night Football in Week 3.
The central variable sits under centre for the hosts. Baker Mayfield dislocated his right thumb in the Week 3 loss to Minnesota, and head coach Todd Bowles said he is set to miss three weeks, according to Sports Illustrated.
That hands the start to Jalon Daniels, an undrafted rookie making his first NFL appearance as a starter. ESPN notes that the last undrafted rookie quarterback to start this early in a season was Tyson Bagent, in Week 7 of 2023.
The market has reacted accordingly. DraftKings lists Green Bay at -3.5 (1.87) with a moneyline of 1.51, against 2.64 for Tampa Bay, and a total of 39.5 points.
The context also matters for the visitors. Green Bay had 10 days to prepare after their Thursday game, as Covers points out, while Tampa Bay are dealing with a quarterback change on a normal week of practice.
Both teams are 0-3 against the spread so far this season. That shared figure tells us the market has overrated each of them, which is precisely why the choice of market in this game deserves care.
Tampa Bay Buccaneers Analysis 
The data on Tampa Bay’s offense is the starting point. Sports Illustrated ranks the Buccaneers last in the league in EPA per play through three weeks, and that was with Mayfield at the controls.
The scoring output confirms the efficiency numbers. The Bucs have been held under 20 points in back-to-back games, which leaves very little margin when the starting quarterback is removed from the equation.
Daniels has almost no NFL tape. StatSalt records that he went 0-for-3 with an interception when he came on in relief last week, a small sample but not an encouraging one.
The defense is the counterweight. Tampa Bay rank sixth in EPA per play allowed, 12th in EPA per pass and eighth in yards per play allowed, according to Sports Illustrated.
That unit can keep this game within reach for a while. Without an offense able to sustain drives, though, it will spend long periods on the field, and that tends to erode a defense in the second half.
The injury report adds further uncertainty. Jalen McMillan, Rueben Bain Jr. and Josiah Trotter are all listed as questionable, which affects both the receiving corps and the front seven.
Tampa Bay are still only one game out of first place in the NFC South, per SI. That is the one structural reason for optimism, but an 0-4 start would make the climb considerably steeper.
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Green Bay Packers Analysis 
Green Bay’s problems are real, and they start with the ground game. Without Josh Jacobs, who sits on the Commissioner’s Exempt List, the Packers average a league-worst 3.0 yards per carry and rank last in EPA per rush.
The wider offensive picture is only slightly better. SI places Green Bay 25th in EPA per play and 28th in success rate, with scoring outputs of 22, 20 and 14 points across the first three weeks.
Jordan Love carries the weight of that offense. He has thrown for 844 yards, six touchdowns and two interceptions, but his completion rate sits at 52.4 percent, a figure well below his usual standard.
The defensive side has also been exposed. Covers reports the Packers are allowing 30.3 points per game, with Minnesota and Atlanta both passing 30 against them in the two defeats.
The Atlanta loss was the low point. Green Bay led early before the Falcons took over, and the 35-14 final at Lambeau pushed the Packers into a difficult spot in an NFC North where Minnesota are already 3-0.
The questionable list is long: Edgerrin Cooper, Jayden Reed, Jacob Monk, Warren Brinson, Aaron Banks and Anthony Campbell. Final statuses on Banks along the offensive line and Cooper at linebacker will shape how comfortable this afternoon becomes.
The gap between the two quarterback situations remains the decisive factor. Covers sums it up directly: with Mayfield out, Love gives Green Bay a clear edge under centre against a winless opponent.
Probable lineup Tampa Bay Buccaneers: QB Jalon Daniels (first career start). Full lineup not announced at time of publication.
Probable lineup Green Bay Packers: QB Jordan Love. Full lineup not announced at time of publication.
Free NFL Prediction: Tampa Bay Buccaneers vs Green Bay Packers
Our prediction: Green Bay Packers to win (moneyline) at 1.51
The spread is not the cleanest route here, since Green Bay have failed to cover in all three games and SI also lists them 0-2 against the spread on the road. The moneyline removes that problem and keeps us on the side with the stronger quarterback, the extra rest and the more experienced roster.
Tampa Bay’s defense is good enough to keep the score low, but the worst offense in the league by EPA per play is now led by an undrafted rookie with an interception on his only NFL pass attempts. StatSalt, Covers and Squawka all side with Green Bay, the latter projecting a 23-20 Packers win.
We expect a tight, defensive contest in which Love does just enough and Tampa Bay struggle to finish drives. Green Bay to win, at 1.51.
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