- 1 Houston Texans vs Dallas Cowboys: a Texas derby where the defenses tell opposite stories
- 2 Houston Texans Analysis
- 3 Dallas Cowboys Analysis
- 4 Free NFL Prediction: Houston Texans vs Dallas Cowboys
- 5 About our free predictions
- 6 No commitment from us
- 7 Information changes
- 8 Your responsibility
- 9 Responsible gambling
- 10 Legal age
- 11 About visuals
Houston Texans vs Dallas Cowboys: a Texas derby where the defenses tell opposite stories 
The Houston Texans host the Dallas Cowboys on Sunday 4 October at NRG Stadium, in Week 4 of the NFL season. Kick-off is at 19:00 Paris time (1:00 p.m. ET), with FOX holding the regional broadcast.
The records are misleading in both directions. Houston are 0-3 despite a pass rush that has produced 11 sacks, while Dallas are 1-2 with one of the most productive offenses in the league.
The Texans’ three defeats came by five, 14 and two points, according to Squawka. The latest was a 19-17 loss at Indianapolis, the kind of narrow result that keeps a team close in every game without turning that closeness into wins.
Dallas arrive from Rio de Janeiro, where Baltimore beat them 34-31 with a 56-yard field goal as time expired. The Ravens ran for 192 yards that day, a figure that sums up the main issue in the Cowboys’ defense.
The market sees Houston as a narrow favourite at home. Odds sit at Texans -2.5 (1.85) and Cowboys +2.5 (1.98), with moneylines of 1.70 and 2.20 respectively.
The total is the number that stands out. It is set at 47.5 points, with the Over priced at 1.87, in a game where the Over is 3-0 across all Dallas games this season.
That trend is not a coincidence. It is the direct product of a Cowboys offense that scores freely and a Cowboys defense that concedes at the same rate, and that combination is the core of our analysis.
Squawka’s projection also points to points. Its preview lists a 27-24 Dallas win, and its editorial lean on the total is the Over 45.5, two points below the current line.
Dimers’ model lands closer to the number, with a projected 25-23 Houston win. Both projections put the combined score at or above 48 points, which is the reference figure for this analysis.
Houston Texans Analysis 
Houston’s defense is the strength of this roster. The Texans have recorded 11 sacks in three games, more than all but two teams, and Will Anderson Jr. accounts for four of them, including two and a half at Indianapolis.
The underlying numbers back up that reputation. Houston allow 3.5 yards per carry and opponents have converted only 42.9 percent of their red-zone trips against them, per Squawka.
The offense is where the 0-3 record comes from. The Texans have scored only six touchdowns in three games and have not passed 20 points since Week 1, when they lost 36-31 to Buffalo.
C.J. Stroud has been careful rather than dangerous. He has 794 passing yards, three touchdowns and no interceptions, but his 167 yards at Indianapolis were his lowest output of the season.
The ground game offers little support. Houston average 3.6 yards per carry and have run for only 254 yards in total, which limits their ability to exploit a weak Dallas run defense.
There is some positive news in the receiving corps. RotoWire reports that Nico Collins has been cleared to play, a significant boost with Tank Dell and Jayden Higgins both on injured reserve.
The defensive injury list is longer. Azeez Al-Shaair and M.J. Stewart are out, while Jadeveon Clowney, Logan Hall and Jake Hansen are questionable, which could thin out the front that has carried this team.
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Dallas Cowboys Analysis 
The Dallas offense is built on efficiency. The Cowboys convert 57.1 percent of their third downs and have scored 10 touchdowns in three games, an average of 3.3 per game.
Dak Prescott leads that production. He has completed 73 of 105 passes for 730 yards, seven touchdowns and one interception, with a 107.2 passer rating.
CeeDee Lamb remains the primary target. He caught seven passes for 112 yards against Baltimore and has 309 receiving yards on the season.
The protection has held up well. Dallas have conceded only one sack per game, a key figure against a Houston pass rush that thrives on pressure.
The defense is the opposite story. Dallas have allowed 539 rushing yards at 5.0 yards per carry, a 121.3 opponent passer rating and a 58.8 percent third-down conversion rate, according to Squawka.
Injuries do not help. Cobie Durant and DeMarvion Overshown are both out with hamstring problems, and Tyler Smith is on injured reserve on the offensive line.
Dallas are 2-1 against the spread this season, while Houston are 0-3. The Cowboys have been more competitive than their record suggests, but they have also been part of high-scoring games every week.
Probable lineup Houston Texans: QB C.J. Stroud, WR Nico Collins (cleared to play), DE Will Anderson Jr. Full lineup not announced at time of publication.
Probable lineup Dallas Cowboys: QB Dak Prescott, WR CeeDee Lamb. Full lineup not announced at time of publication.
Free NFL Prediction: Houston Texans vs Dallas Cowboys
Our prediction: Over 47.5 total points at 1.87
The side is close: StatSalt backs Houston -2.5, while Squawka projects a 27-24 Dallas win, a total of 51 points. The total gives us a cleaner angle, since the Over is 3-0 in Dallas games and the Cowboys both score and concede at a rate of more than three touchdowns per game.
Houston’s offense is the risk to this pick, but the matchup is favourable for them. Dallas concede 5.0 yards per carry, a 121.3 opponent rating and nearly 59 percent on third down, and Collins returns to give Stroud his best target back.
Prescott’s protection should hold against the Texans’ rush, which keeps the Dallas offense on schedule. We expect both teams to find the end zone regularly, and we back the Over 47.5 at 1.87.
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