- 1 Valencia vs Athletic Bilbao: Aguirre’s rebuild meets an Athletic side without Nico Williams and Sancet
- 2 Valencia: three straight home defeats and a coach still deciding on his shape
- 3 Athletic Bilbao: unbeaten since August, but the creative core is in the treatment room
- 4 Free Football Prediction: Valencia vs Athletic Bilbao
- 5 About our free predictions
- 6 No commitment from us
- 7 Information changes
- 8 Your responsibility
- 9 Responsible gambling
- 10 Legal age
- 11 About visuals
Valencia vs Athletic Bilbao: Aguirre’s rebuild meets an Athletic side without Nico Williams and Sancet 
Five points from eight games. Valencia are 19th in La Liga, and Saturday night’s visit of Athletic Bilbao to Mestalla, kick-off 21:00 Paris time, arrives with Javier Aguirre only one game into his spell as head coach.
The season so far doesn’t bear close inspection. One win, two draws, five defeats. A single point from the first five matches. The slight lift since, four points from the last three, has at least given Aguirre something to build on rather than a full demolition job.
Athletic are tenth on eight points, and they’ve only played six league games. Their trip to Rayo Vallecano last weekend was abandoned after 13 minutes when home fans threw paper planes and rubber balls onto the pitch in protest against the Rayo owner. So the Lions arrive fresh, but also short of rhythm.
This is a fixture with real history. In 200 meetings, Valencia have won 77, Athletic 74, and 49 have been drawn. Valencia won the last one 1-0 in May 2026, and they’ve taken two of the last three.
The market leans towards Athletic. That makes sense on paper. But both squads are missing important attacking pieces, and that’s where the analysis really starts. Who creates the chances on Saturday?
Valencia: three straight home defeats and a coach still deciding on his shape 
Mestalla hasn’t been a refuge. Valencia have lost their last three home games, including a 5-0 hammering by Barcelona and a 3-2 defeat to Real Sociedad. Their only league win came on the road, 1-0 at Alaves on 15 September.
Aguirre’s first match was the draw at Racing de Santander on 11 October. Early signs point to a more intense, more physical Valencia, and he’s reportedly willing to switch between a back four and a back five. That’s a coach whose first job is to stop the bleeding.
The injury list doesn’t help. Sergi Canos, Diego Lopez and Umar Sadiq are all out, while Luis Rioja and Dimitri Foulquier are fitness doubts. That removes width and a physical striker in one go. Dani Raba and Hugo Duro should carry the attack, with David Otorbi offering pace from wide.
In midfield, Guido Rodriguez and Javi Guerra are expected to form the double pivot, and Guerra was one of the better performers at Racing. Pepelu, who played in central defence last time out, could step back into midfield.
None of that screams goals. It reads like a side that’s going to try to keep the game tight and nick something. For a team in 19th, that’s probably the right call.
no renewal
Free for 2 weeks.
Athletic Bilbao: unbeaten since August, but the creative core is in the treatment room 
Athletic haven’t lost a league game since a 2-0 defeat at Barcelona at the end of August. Two wins, two draws and two defeats from six matches, including a 3-0 home win over Atletico Madrid. Edin Terzic’s side can clearly beat good teams when it clicks.
It just isn’t clicking often. Their last completed league game was a goalless draw at home to Alaves on 19 September, and the Rayo game was abandoned at 0-0. Since mid-September, then, Athletic’s league football has produced no goals at all. That’s a stat that makes for uncomfortable reading.
And the absences are heavy. Nico Williams, Oihan Sancet and Unai Egiluz are all out injured. Sancet is the side’s main creator between the lines, Williams the main threat from wide. Without both, Peio Canales is expected to play as the number ten, with Alex Berenguer coming in on the flank and Inaki Williams through the middle.
Aymeric Laporte missed out through illness and faces a late fitness test. Inigo Ruiz de Galarreta and Mikel Gerenabarrena should start in midfield, and Unai Simon has been in good form in goal.
The Lions finished 12th last season. This squad is better than that on its day. Without its two sharpest attacking players, though, it’s hard to see them running away with a game against a side that’s going to sit in.
Probable lineup Valencia: Dimitrievski; Maffeo, Diakhaby, Haas, Gaya; Pepelu, Rodriguez; Otorbi, Guerra, Raba; Duro
Probable lineup Athletic Bilbao: Simon; Areso, Alvarez, Laporte, Berchiche; Ruiz de Galarreta, Gerenabarrena; Navarro, Canales, Berenguer; I. Williams
Free Football Prediction: Valencia vs Athletic Bilbao
Our prediction: Under 2.5 goals
Athletic’s league football since mid-September has produced no goals: a 0-0 with Alaves and an abandoned 0-0 at Rayo. They now travel without Nico Williams and Sancet, their two main sources of chances. Valencia are missing Sadiq, Canos and Diego Lopez, and their new coach is building from the back first.
Aguirre’s approach is clear: more intensity, possibly a back five, a midfield anchored by Guido Rodriguez. That’s a setup designed to make games ugly, and a relegation-threatened side at home has every reason to accept a point. Athletic, rusty after the Rayo abandonment, won’t find it easy to open that up.
A tight, low-scoring night is the most logical reading. We’re backing fewer than three goals at Mestalla.
in your pocket.
Real-time notifications & alerts
_________
About our free predictions
- What we publish on MathOdds are analyses, nothing more. We share a view, a reading of the moment, but never a guarantee. Sport remains what it is: unpredictable. A red card, an injury, a last-minute goal, and the script changes completely.
- Let’s be clear: there is no such thing as a risk-free bet. Even when it looks “obvious”, nothing ever is. And yes, that means you can lose. It’s even inevitable at some point.
- The smartest approach is to stay reasonable. Bet small, set a budget and stick to it. Never use money you need to live on. And above all: don’t chase your losses, that rarely ends well.
- A bet should remain a game, not a job or a source of income. If it starts taking up too much space in your daily life, causes stress or frustration, take a break. And if needed, talk to a support organisation: that’s what they’re there for.
- Ultimately, responsibility lies with you. Reading our content means accepting that risk exists and will never disappear, no matter how good the analysis.
- Essential reminder: gambling is prohibited for minors and must comply with the laws of your country. Need help? Visit begambleaware.org.
No commitment from us
Our predictions carry no contractual value. They have no legal standing. In short: you cannot rely on them to claim anything if a bet doesn’t come through.
Information changes
A prediction is always based on what we know at the time of writing. But between publication and kick-off, a lineup can change, a player picks up an injury, the weather turns, and the analysis can quickly be outdated. We cannot be held responsible for that.
Your responsibility
Before placing a bet, simply check that gambling is legal in your country. If it isn’t, that’s your responsibility, not ours.
Responsible gambling
We can’t say it enough: gamble responsibly. If you’re struggling to stay in control, don’t wait to seek help.
Legal age
MathOdds content is intended for adults only. By browsing here, you confirm you meet the legal age requirement for gambling in your jurisdiction.
About visuals
The images and logos of Valencia and Athletic Bilbao on MathOdds are used solely to illustrate our articles. They do not imply any official affiliation with a federation or sports organisation, and we claim no rights over them. Those rights belong to their original owners. If any visual raises a concern, contact us and it will be removed without delay.
Leave a Reply