- 1 Fiorentina vs Como: a Franchi without a league win against Serie A’s travelling specialists
- 2 Fiorentina: Vanoli’s bounce has already faded
- 3 Como: seven points from four away games and a striker who loves the road
- 4 Free Football Prediction: Fiorentina vs Como
- 5 About our free predictions
- 6 No commitment from us
- 7 Information changes
- 8 Your responsibility
- 9 Responsible gambling
- 10 Legal age
- 11 About visuals
Fiorentina vs Como: a Franchi without a league win against Serie A’s travelling specialists 
Fourteen goals conceded in six Serie A games. That’s Fiorentina’s defensive record going into Sunday’s meeting with Como at the Stadio Artemio Franchi, kick-off 15:00 Paris time. It’s the number that frames everything else.
The Viola have four points. Only Venezia, still without a point, sit below them. For the second season running, Fiorentina have started badly enough to change coach early: Fabio Grosso lasted four games before Paolo Vanoli, who kept them up as interim manager last term, came back through the door.
Como arrive from the other end of the conversation. Eleven points from six games, a win in Naples, a 4-1 thrashing of Genoa on the road, and a first-ever Champions League campaign already under way. Cesc Fabregas’s side are playing in a different competition, in more ways than one.
There’s history in the fixture too. Fiorentina lead the all-time head-to-head 18 wins to 14 across 39 official meetings, with seven draws. Recent history is a different story. Como have won the last three meetings in Florence, including a cup tie that knocked the Viola out.
The market has picked a side. Como are around 2.05 to win, Fiorentina around 3.50, with the draw at 3.60. For a club of Fiorentina’s size, playing at home, that’s quite a statement. Is it justified? The numbers say yes.
Fiorentina: Vanoli’s bounce has already faded 
For about a fortnight, Vanoli looked like the fix. A 4-2 win at Venezia, a 3-0 Coppa Italia win over Pisa, then a gritty 1-1 draw with Napoli. Seven goals in two wins. The mood lifted.
Then came Genoa. Two goals down inside 15 minutes, a 2-1 defeat against a fellow struggler, and the old problems were back on show. That’s a result that takes some explaining after a week to reset during the international break.
The home record makes for uncomfortable reading. Three league games at the Franchi this season: a 3-0 defeat to promoted Frosinone, a 2-1 defeat to Torino, and the draw with Napoli. No home league win yet. And across six games, Fiorentina have scored seven and conceded 14, with four of those against Roma on the opening day.
Franco Mastantuono had surgery on his left hand this week but is still expected to start. Fabiano Parisi is a long-term absentee and Arthur Atta remains a major doubt. Up front, top scorer Mateo Pellegrino is pushing Beto for a place, and that’s the one area where Vanoli has a genuine choice.
The bigger issue isn’t selection. It’s the back line. A defence that concedes more than twice a game can’t keep handing opponents a start and hoping the attack bails them out.
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Como: seven points from four away games and a striker who loves the road 
Here’s the stat that stands out: Tasos Douvikas’s last five Serie A goals have all come away from home. He scored at De Kuip in midweek as well. With Moise Kean still short of fitness, the Greek striker should lead the line in Florence.
Como’s away form is the strongest part of their game. A 1-1 draw at Udinese, a 2-1 win at Napoli, a 4-1 win at Genoa. The only blemish was a 2-0 defeat at Frosinone, which ended a 10-game unbeaten run before the break. Seven points from four trips. That’s a side that knows what it’s about.
The recent results are flatter. Last week’s 0-0 with Roma was Serie A’s first goalless game of the season, and Como couldn’t find a way through despite playing most of the second half against 10 men. On Wednesday they led at Feyenoord through Assane Diao and still lost 3-2.
Fatigue is a fair concern. Como face Fiorentina and then Manchester United at home in quick succession, and Fabregas could rotate. Jean Butez is likely to replace Robert Sanchez in goal, and Diao picked up a knock. Nico Paz, who has attempted more shots than anyone in Serie A this season, should still start.
Even a rotated Como side keeps the ball well and controls games. Against a Fiorentina team that’s already conceded 14, control should be enough.
Probable lineup Fiorentina: De Gea; Jimenez, Dragusin, Ranieri, Valdepenas; Ndour, Fagioli, Oulai; Mastantuono, Pellegrino, Njie
Probable lineup Como: Butez; Couto, Ramon, Chalobah, Valle; Perrone, Da Cunha; Rodriguez, Paz, Baturina; Douvikas
Free Football Prediction: Fiorentina vs Como
Our prediction: Como to win (odds around 2.05)
Fiorentina haven’t won a league game at home this season, they’ve conceded 14 in six, and they’ve lost their last three home meetings with Como. Those three facts all point the same way. Vanoli’s early bounce has stalled, and the defence hasn’t improved under him.
Como’s away record is the other half of the case: seven points from four, with wins at Napoli and Genoa. Douvikas scores on the road, Paz creates more shots than anyone in the league, and the visitors’ passing game is built to punish a side that falls behind early, which Fiorentina did at Genoa.
The fixture congestion is the only real risk, and it’s priced in at around 2.05. We’ll take the away win. The gap between these two clubs isn’t closing.
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