- 1 Real Madrid vs Sevilla: a 15-game hoodoo meets a Bernabeu side without Vinicius
- 2 Real Madrid: 12 points from 12 at home and a squad that refuses to stay down
- 3 Sevilla: scoring every week, but the back line keeps leaking
- 4 Free Football Prediction: Real Madrid vs Sevilla
- 5 About our free predictions
- 6 No commitment from us
- 7 Information changes
- 8 Your responsibility
- 9 Responsible gambling
- 10 Legal age
- 11 About visuals
Real Madrid vs Sevilla: a 15-game hoodoo meets a Bernabeu side without Vinicius 
Sevilla haven’t beaten Real Madrid in 15 attempts. Thirteen of those games ended in defeat. That’s the backdrop to Sunday night at the Santiago Bernabeu, kick-off 21:00 Paris time, in round nine of La Liga.
The last time Sevilla won a league game at Real Madrid’s ground was December 2008. Read that again. Nearly 18 years of trips to the capital, and nothing to show for it.
The table makes this look closer than the history does. Real Madrid sit fourth on 18 points from eight games, six behind a Barcelona side that hasn’t dropped a point. Sevilla are fifth on 14, four points back. Two sides in the top five, then, but only one of them has the habit of winning this fixture.
There’s a wrinkle for Jose Mourinho. Vinicius Junior is suspended for four league matches after his red card against Villarreal, and the treatment room is busy: Eder Militao, Rodrygo, Ferland Mendy and Raul Asencio are all unavailable. That’s a lot of quality to lose in one week.
Context matters too. Real Madrid played in Rome on Wednesday, Sevilla haven’t played since Monday. Real host RB Leipzig in the Champions League on 21 October and then go to Camp Nou for El Clasico. Is there a risk Mourinho’s side look past this one? The data suggests they rarely do against this opponent.
Real Madrid: 12 points from 12 at home and a squad that refuses to stay down 
Three goals down to one in Rome, and Real Madrid still left with the points. They won 4-3 at Roma on Wednesday after trailing 3-1, with Endrick and Carlos Espi both scoring off the bench. That’s not a side that panics.
The league numbers back up the resilience. Six wins and two defeats from eight games, 19 goals scored and eight conceded, a goal difference of +11. At the Bernabeu they’re perfect: four home games, 12 points. Nobody has taken anything off them in Madrid yet.
The two defeats are worth a look, though. A 1-0 loss at Real Betis and a 2-1 loss at Atletico Madrid before the international break. Both away from home. Both against sides who could sit deep and wait. Sevilla aren’t built to do that for 90 minutes at the Bernabeu, and that matters here.
Without Vinicius, the shape changes. Yan Diomande, who scored the winner in the 1-0 win over Villarreal on 62 minutes, is expected to move across to the left, with Arda Guler on the right and Jude Bellingham behind Kylian Mbappe. Dean Huijsen should return to the middle of the defence alongside Ibrahima Konate.
The missing names hurt. They don’t cripple. This squad scored four in Rome with half its first-choice attack either suspended or on the bench, and the bench options are clearly hungry.
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Sevilla: scoring every week, but the back line keeps leaking 
Luis Garcia Plaza deserves credit. Four wins, two draws and two defeats from eight league games is a decent return for a club that finished 17th in 2024-25 and came close to relegation. Fifth place in mid-October is more than most expected.
Goals haven’t been the issue. Sevilla have scored in each of their last six league matches, and Monday’s 3-3 draw at Levante showed how dangerous they can be going forward: Robbie Ure on 13 minutes, Felix Correia on 54, Isaac Romero deep into stoppage time. Ure, 22, got off the mark for his new club that night.
The trouble is at the other end. Twelve conceded in eight games, a goal difference of just +1. And when the opponent steps up a level, the gap shows. Barcelona won 3-1 in Seville. Atletico Madrid won 3-1 in Seville. That doesn’t bear close inspection ahead of a trip to the Bernabeu.
The squad is stretched as well. Marcao, Jon Guridi and Miguel Sierra are injured, and Romero is suspended after his red card at Levante. That takes away the man who rescued a point on Monday. Youssouf Fofana, one of the side’s standout performers this season, will start in midfield.
Away from home, Sevilla have eight points from four games, with 1-0 wins at Deportivo and a 1-1 draw at Espanyol among them. Respectable. But none of those grounds is the Bernabeu, and none of those opponents had Mbappe.
Probable lineup Real Madrid: Courtois; Dumfries, Konate, Huijsen, Cucurella; Valverde, Tchouameni; Guler, Bellingham, Diomande; Mbappe
Probable lineup Sevilla: Vlachodimos; Iglesias, Castrin, Salas, Suazo; Agoume; Ejuke, Kochorashvili, Fofana, Correia; Ure
Free Football Prediction: Real Madrid vs Sevilla
Our prediction: Real Madrid to win and Over 2.5 goals
Real Madrid’s home record is perfect, their attack has 19 league goals in eight games, and their history against this opponent tells you everything you need to know: 15 meetings without a Sevilla win. The absences are real, but the replacements have already shown they can deliver on a big night.
The goals angle is just as strong. Sevilla score almost every week, six league games in a row now, and they concede at a rate of 1.5 per game. Against the two strongest sides they’ve faced, they let in three each time. Put that next to a Madrid attack built around Mbappe and Bellingham, and a low-scoring night looks unlikely.
So the pick combines both readings: a home win, with at least three goals in the game. Sevilla can make it uncomfortable for spells. They haven’t shown they can stop Real Madrid scoring enough to matter.
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