- 1 Udinese vs Lecce: four defeats in a row, but three of them came against the top five
- 2 Udinese: Ekkelenkamp keeps scoring, and the home record has to turn
- 3 Lecce: goalless on the road outside Venice, and three forwards still waiting
- 4 Free Serie A Prediction: Udinese vs Lecce
- 5 About our free predictions
- 6 No commitment from us
- 7 Information changes
- 8 Your responsibility
- 9 Responsible gambling
- 10 Legal age
- 11 About visuals
Udinese vs Lecce: four defeats in a row, but three of them came against the top five 
Udinese have lost four Serie A games running: 2-1 to Lazio, 1-0 to Cagliari, 5-3 at Inter and 2-1 at Torino last Monday. It’s the second-worst run of Kosta Runjaic’s two-plus years in charge, and it leaves them 15th on four points.
Lecce come to the Bluenergy Stadium on Sunday morning, kick-off 11:30 UK time, two points and two places better off. Eusebio Di Francesco’s side are 13th with six points, which is their best return at this stage of a season since 2023.
The context of Udinese’s slide matters more than the length of it. Inter and Lazio sit joint top on 16 points, and Cagliari are fifth on 13. Three of the four defeats came against sides in the top five, and two of them were away from home.
Lecce’s six points came from a 2-0 win at Venezia and a 3-2 home win over Monza. Against everybody else they’ve struggled: 4-0 at home to Roma, 1-0 at Cagliari, 3-0 at AC Milan and 2-1 at home to Bologna last weekend.
The history between them leans to Udine. Across 15 meetings in all competitions, Udinese have won nine and Lecce four. Lecce’s 2-1 win at the Via del Mare in February ended a run of four straight Udinese wins, and Udinese have failed to score in a home Serie A game against Lecce only once, back in 2001.
The prices: Udinese 1.85, the draw 3.30, Lecce 4.00. I’m not put off by the losing run, because the schedule explains most of it.
Udinese: Ekkelenkamp keeps scoring, and the home record has to turn 
The problem for Runjaic is at the back. Udinese have conceded 13 league goals in six games, which equals their worst total after six rounds since 1961. The 5-3 at San Siro accounts for a big share of it, but they also let in two at home to Lazio and two in Turin.
Jurgen Ekkelenkamp is the bright spot. He’s been involved in 11 Serie A goals this calendar year, more than anyone else at the club, and he’s scored in five consecutive away games. He plays just behind Keinan Davis in the shape Runjaic is expected to use.
The home numbers are less kind. Udinese have won one of their last eight top-flight home games and failed to score in five of them. They drew 1-1 with Como on the opening night, then lost to Lazio and Cagliari at the Bluenergy Stadium, so the run has carried over into this season.
The treatment room is busy. James Abankwah, Nicolo Zaniolo, Vakoun Bayo and Idrissa Gueye are out, and neither Alessandro Zanoli nor Jakub Piotrowski is expected to play despite both returning to training. Davis has a muscle problem and will be assessed.
One more number stands out. Udinese have scored fewer second-half goals than any side in the division, which suggests a team that fades rather than one that can’t create. Karlstrom and Ekkelenkamp have started the last four meetings with Lecce, and Karlstrom should anchor the midfield again alongside Miller.
David Alaba should start in a back three alongside Solet and Bertola, with Okoye behind them in goal.
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Lecce: goalless on the road outside Venice, and three forwards still waiting 
Lecce are traditionally slow starters, and six points from six is the club’s best tally at this stage since 2023. The way the points arrived needs a closer look, though.
Lecce have scored six league goals, and five of them came in two games: three against Monza and two at Venezia. In their other four matches they’ve scored once, a consolation in the 2-1 home defeat to Bologna.
On the road, apart from that afternoon in Venice, they’ve failed to score at Cagliari and at San Siro. They also lost to Palermo in the Coppa Italia in August.
The forward line hasn’t helped. William Geubbels, Nikola Stulic and Paco Esteban are all still waiting for a first league goal of the season. Stulic’s fitness has been a doubt this week, while Ivan Ilic has a muscle injury and Medon Berisha a thigh problem.
Falcone remains the most reliable part of the side. He and Gallo have started each of Lecce’s last six recorded meetings with Udinese, and the defence in front of Falcone has shipped 12 goals in six games.
A side that concedes two a game and scores one has to keep things tight away from home. Lecce managed it once, in Venice. They didn’t manage it at Cagliari or Milan.
Probable lineup Udinese: Okoye; Bertola, Solet, Alaba; Vojvoda, Karlstrom, Miller, Kamara; Gomez, Ekkelenkamp; Davis
Probable lineup Lecce: Falcone; Veiga, Gabriel, Siebert, Gallo; Coulibaly, Ngom, Maleh; Pierotti, Geubbels, Fatah
Free Serie A Prediction: Udinese vs Lecce
Our prediction: Udinese to win @ 1.85
Udinese’s four straight defeats came against Lazio, Cagliari, Inter and Torino. Lecce’s only two wins came against Venezia and Monza. Take the opponents into account and the gap between these two sides is wider than two points suggests.
The home record is the honest argument against the pick: one win in eight top-flight games at the Bluenergy Stadium. But Lecce’s attack has scored once in four games against anyone other than Monza and Venezia, and Ekkelenkamp has scored in five consecutive away games while being involved in 11 league goals this calendar year.
I’d back Udinese at 1.85. They’ve beaten Lecce in nine of 15 meetings, and Lecce have failed to score in two of their three away league games.
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