- 1 Osasuna vs Racing Santander: two strikers with 13 goals between them, and one side that can’t travel
- 2 Osasuna: Budimir’s six goals and a back line shipping five on the road
- 3 Racing Santander: eight points at El Sardinero, none anywhere else
- 4 Free La Liga Prediction: Osasuna vs Racing Santander
- 5 About our free predictions
- 6 No commitment from us
- 7 Information changes
- 8 Your responsibility
- 9 Responsible gambling
- 10 Legal age
- 11 About visuals
Osasuna vs Racing Santander: two strikers with 13 goals between them, and one side that can’t travel 
Yassir Zabiri has seven La Liga goals in eight appearances, and he’s 21. Ante Budimir has six in eight, and he’s 35. Sunday lunchtime at El Sadar, kick-off 13:00 UK time, puts the two of them on the same pitch for Gameweek 9.
The table has them side by side as well. Racing are 15th, Osasuna 16th, both on eight points from eight games with an identical record of two wins, two draws and four defeats. Only goal difference separates them.
Look a little closer and the two seasons split apart. Every one of Racing’s eight points has been won at El Sardinero, including a 3-2 win over Elche, a 2-1 win over Alaves and a 2-2 draw with Valencia last time out. Away from Santander they’ve played four, lost four, and conceded 16 while scoring four.
Osasuna haven’t been much better on the road. They lost 5-2 at Alaves, 4-0 at Atletico Madrid and 5-2 at Real Betis before the break. In Pamplona the picture is calmer: a 1-1 draw with Rayo Vallecano, and Espanyol’s 2-0 win remains the only home league defeat of the season.
These sides haven’t met since March 2015. Racing won both meetings that season 2-0, but the squads, the coaches and the division have all changed since. Across 75 meetings in total, Osasuna have won 25 and Racing 34.
The bookmakers have Osasuna at 1.95, the draw at 3.80 and Racing at 3.60. I think the home price is the fairer of the three, and the away record is the reason.
Osasuna: Budimir’s six goals and a back line shipping five on the road 
Jagoba Arrasate’s side opened the run of results that matters with a 1-0 win over Getafe. What followed was ugly: 5-2 at Alaves, 2-0 at home to Espanyol, 4-0 at Atletico, 1-1 with Rayo and then 5-2 at Betis on 11 October.
That’s 17 goals conceded in five league games. Fourteen of them came away from El Sadar, which says as much about where Osasuna played as about how they defended.
Budimir is still the reason they score at all. Six goals from eight appearances, at 35, makes him one of the most reliable finishers in the division. He leads the line alone in Arrasate’s shape, with Ruben Garcia and Gomez feeding him from wide.
The squad isn’t whole. Aimar Oroz, Jorge Herrando and Romain Del Castillo are all injured, and Kike Barja and Raul Moro are doubts. Losing Oroz takes away the player who links midfield to Budimir, so Lucas Torro and Jon Moncayola will have to carry the ball further themselves.
Alejandro Catena and Enzo Boyomo should pair up at centre-back again. Against Racing’s front line, that partnership will spend most of the afternoon tracking Zabiri, and it hasn’t kept a clean sheet since the Getafe game.
I’d still rather back this team at home than anywhere else. Their only home league defeat came against Espanyol on 12 September, and the three heaviest beatings of their season all came on the road.
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Racing Santander: eight points at El Sardinero, none anywhere else 
Racing’s away run reads 3-2 at Rayo Vallecano, 7-2 at Barcelona and 5-0 at Celta Vigo, plus a defeat at Getafe. That’s 16 goals against and four scored in four trips.
Jose Alberto’s side are a different team in Santander. They beat Elche 3-2 and Alaves 2-1 there, and drew 2-2 with Valencia on 11 October. Eight points from four home games, built on an attack that has scored in every one of them.
Zabiri is the headline. Seven goals in eight games puts him among the top scorers in Spain. Sergio Canales plays behind him and gives the side some calm in possession.
The squad is in decent shape. Simon Eriksson has a shoulder problem and needs a late check, but there are no other fresh absences. Garcia and Vicente should start either side of Canales, with Martin and Prati sitting deeper.
The worry is the same one that’s followed them all season. Racing have conceded 23 league goals in eight games, and on the road they’ve let in four a game on average. Even a reduced Osasuna attack can find space against that.
Racing came up as Segunda Division champions and are back in the top flight for the first time since 2011-12. They’ve yet to take a point away from home at this level, and El Sadar is their fifth attempt.
Probable lineup Osasuna: Fernandez; Arguibide, Catena, Boyomo, Bretones; Torro; Ruben Garcia, Moncayola, Munoz, Gomez; Budimir
Probable lineup Racing Santander: Agirrezabala; Mantilla, Ramon, Belocian, Salinas; Martin, Prati; Garcia, Canales, Vicente; Zabiri
Free La Liga Prediction: Osasuna vs Racing Santander
Our prediction: Osasuna to win @ 1.95
Racing have lost all four of their away league games and conceded 16 goals doing it. Osasuna have one home defeat this season. Those two records point the same way, and the price on the home side is close to even money.
Zabiri will probably score; he’s done it almost every week. But Racing need two or three to take anything away from home, given how often they concede, and Budimir has six goals of his own against a defence that’s let in 23. Osasuna’s leaks have mostly come at Alaves, Atletico and Betis, not in Pamplona.
I’d back Osasuna to win at 1.95. The absence of Oroz is a concern, but Racing’s away defending has been bad enough that Budimir and the wide players should get the chances they need.
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