- 1 Le Havre vs Auxerre: bottom of Ligue 1 against the division’s leakiest defence
- 2 Le Havre: four fit defenders and one home goal all season
- 3 Auxerre: two home wins, three heavy away defeats under Will Still
- 4 Free Ligue 1 Prediction: Le Havre vs Auxerre
- 5 About our free predictions
- 6 No commitment from us
- 7 Information changes
- 8 Your responsibility
- 9 Responsible gambling
- 10 Legal age
- 11 About visuals
Le Havre vs Auxerre: bottom of Ligue 1 against the division’s leakiest defence 
Le Havre are the only side in Ligue 1 without a win. Six games, two points, bottom of the table, and four goals scored, which is the joint-lowest total in the division.
Auxerre arrive at the Stade Oceane on Sunday, kick-off 16:15 UK time, sitting 16th in the relegation play-off place on six points. They’ve conceded 16 league goals, three more than anyone else in France.
So the weakest attack in the league meets the weakest defence. One of those two numbers has to move, and the way each side has lost this season tells me which one.
Le Havre haven’t been beaten by more than a goal all season. Their four defeats were 1-0 to Monaco, 2-1 to Brest, 3-2 at Toulouse and 1-0 at Lille. Auxerre’s away defeats were 5-2 at Lens, 3-1 at Lyon and 4-1 at Rennes, with 12 goals against in three trips.
The fixture itself has gone Le Havre’s way for years. They’ve won 14 of 24 meetings in all competitions to Auxerre’s five, and Auxerre have won only one of the last nine. Last season Le Havre won 1-0 in Burgundy in October and the return in April finished 1-1.
Both managers need this one. Didier Digard has a squad short of defenders and a team still waiting for a first league win. Will Still has a side that has lost all three of its away games, and a trip to the bottom club is the most forgiving away fixture Auxerre have had so far.
The market has Le Havre at 2.30, the draw at 3.25 and Auxerre at 2.90. I’d make the home side shorter than that.
Le Havre: four fit defenders and one home goal all season 
Digard’s side have done their damage at the wrong end. Four goals in six games, and only one of them at the Stade Oceane, where they’ve lost to Monaco and Brest and drawn 0-0 with Angers.
The defence has held up better than the table suggests. Eight goals conceded is mid-table form, and the 1-1 draw at Lyon came at a ground where Auxerre lost 3-1.
The squad, though, is thin at the back. Ayumu Seko was sent off at Lille and is suspended. Stephan Zagadou and Abdoulaye Toure have long-term knee problems, Timothee Pembele and Elias Jelert are out, and goalkeeper Lionel Mpasi-Nzau is still recovering from an Achilles injury. Digard has four fit first-team defenders.
Felix Mambimbi is also missing, so the attack stays as it was: Josh Maja and Mbwana Samatta through the middle, with Nakamura alongside them. Neither striker has found a rhythm, and the supply from Ebonog and Richardson in midfield has been patchy.
Ahmed Touba is likely to play at centre-back next to Mwanga, with Ouziad and N’Diaye in the full-back spots. Gallon keeps his place in goal with Mpasi out.
History is on their side at this ground. Le Havre beat Auxerre 3-1 at the Stade Oceane in 2024-25, and they’ve won three of the last four meetings in all.
Le Havre’s draws at Lyon and against Angers show a side that can stay in games. What they’ve lacked is a fixture against a defence this generous.
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Auxerre: two home wins, three heavy away defeats under Will Still 
Still’s side have run in two directions this season. Auxerre beat Nice 1-0 and Brest 2-1 at the Abbe-Deschamps, then lost 4-1 at Rennes last weekend.
That Rennes defeat followed the same pattern as Lens and Lyon: three away games, three defeats by two goals or more. They’ve kept one clean sheet in six league games, against Nice.
The injury list makes the problem worse. Bryan Okoh and Assane Diousse are out with knee injuries, Sekou Fofana has a groin problem, and Remy Labeau Lascary will miss around a month after a knock. Raya Mandengue is also unavailable, while Telli Siwe, Clement Akpa and Marvin Saya are doubts.
Cameron Archer is the main outlet. He’s expected to start in the front line with Namaso and Zossou, and he scored against Brest in the second of those home wins.
Auxerre have conceded 15 goals in their four defeats. The back three of Makosso, Axel Tuanzebe and Diomande is expected to start again, with Sy and Oppegard as wing-backs.
Auxerre have taken six points from six games, and all six came at home. On the road, they’re pointless and conceding four a game.
Probable lineup Le Havre: Gallon; Ouziad, Mwanga, Touba, N’Diaye; Ndiaye, Ebonog, Richardson; Nakamura, Maja, Samatta
Probable lineup Auxerre: Diop; Makosso, Tuanzebe, Diomande; Sy, Piedfort, Danois, Oppegard; Namaso, Archer, Zossou
Free Ligue 1 Prediction: Le Havre vs Auxerre
Our prediction: Le Havre to win @ 2.30
Auxerre have lost all three of their league away games and conceded 12 goals doing it. Le Havre haven’t lost a single game by more than one goal. A side that keeps games tight at home against a side that collapses on the road is the sort of match-up I’ll back at better than 2.00.
Le Havre’s home attack is the risk. One goal in three games at the Stade Oceane is poor, and the defensive injuries mean Digard is picking from four fit defenders. But Auxerre’s defence has been opened up by Lens, Lyon and Rennes, and their three away games have produced four goals at the other end.
The head-to-head adds weight: one Auxerre win in the last nine meetings. I’d take Le Havre at 2.30 to get their first win of the season.
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