- 1 FC Twente vs FC Utrecht: Utrecht won here in March, and their games haven’t stopped producing goals since
- 2 FC Twente: 12 points from 12 at home, and Weghorst leading the line
- 3 FC Utrecht: 3-3, 1-6, 3-3, 2-1, 0-5, 3-1 and an injury list to match
- 4 Free Football Prediction: FC Twente vs FC Utrecht
- 5 About our free predictions
- 6 No commitment from us
- 7 Information changes
- 8 Your responsibility
- 9 Responsible gambling
- 10 Legal age
- 11 About visuals
FC Twente vs FC Utrecht: Utrecht won here in March, and their games haven’t stopped producing goals since 
Utrecht won 2-0 at De Grolsch Veste on 15 March. Two months earlier Twente had won 2-1 in Utrecht in the KNVB Beker, and the five meetings before Sunday have split two wins each with a draw.
The sides come into Gameweek 9 a long way apart. Twente are fourth on 17 points and unbeaten in all competitions since August, when they lost 1-0 at Heerenveen on the opening day. Utrecht are 13th on eight points, one place above the relegation play-off spot.
Kick-off is 19:00 UK time on Sunday in Enschede. Twente played on Thursday night, beating FC Thun 1-0 in the Conference League, so John van den Brom has had three days to turn the squad around.
Utrecht’s season is a run of wild scorelines. They’ve drawn 3-3 with Go Ahead Eagles and 3-3 at Sparta Rotterdam, lost 6-1 at home to PSV and 5-0 at Feyenoord, and won 2-1 at Excelsior and 3-1 against Willem II last weekend. Every one of their last five league games has had at least three goals.
Twente’s matches have been tighter. They’ve conceded three goals in their last five games in all competitions, but they’ve also won 3-2 against PSV and 4-1 at Cambuur.
The managers are in very different places. Van den Brom has a settled side, a European campaign and a team that has lost once in eight league games. Anthony Correia, who arrived from Telstar in the summer, is still searching for a defensive shape that holds up for 90 minutes, and his injury list is long.
The market has Twente at 1.35, the draw at 5.00 and Utrecht at 6.50. That home price is too short for me to back, so the angle here is goals.
FC Twente: 12 points from 12 at home, and Weghorst leading the line 
Van den Brom’s side have won all four home league games: 3-2 against PSV, 2-0 against ADO Den Haag, 1-0 against Telstar and 3-1 against PEC Zwolle. Away from home they’ve drawn 2-2 at Groningen and 1-1 at Fortuna Sittard and won 4-1 at Cambuur.
Wout Weghorst has four league goals and two assists. Younes Taha has two goals and two assists playing behind him, and Daouda Weidmann has chipped in with two goals from midfield. Sondre Orjasaeter adds a goal and two assists.
Three players are missing. Goalkeeper Lars Unnerstall, centre-back Max Bruns and Stav Lemkin are all unavailable, so Drommel keeps his place in goal and Propper and Nijstad continue together in the middle of defence.
Thursday’s European game is the variable. Twente have used a fairly settled side, keeping 82% of their starting XI across the last six matches, and some rotation is expected after the Thun game.
The defence has been the base of the season. Twente had the best record in the Eredivisie in September and have conceded three in their last five games in all competitions, although PSV did score twice here.
Twente’s only league defeat came on the opening day at Heerenveen. They’ve gone seven league games unbeaten since.
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FC Utrecht: 3-3, 1-6, 3-3, 2-1, 0-5, 3-1 and an injury list to match 
Correia replaced the retired Ron Jans in the summer, and his side have scored freely and defended badly. Across their last five league games Utrecht scored nine and conceded 16.
The win over Willem II came with a Yoann Cathline brace, and it was only their second league win of the season. Before that, the 5-0 defeat at Feyenoord was their last game before the international break.
The injury list is long. Artem Stepanov, their top scorer, is likely to miss out with an ankle problem. Noah Ohio and Victor Jensen have knee injuries, Alonzo Engwanda is out with a hamstring problem and Miliano Jonathans has a torn cruciate ligament. Kevin Paredes will be assessed after a knee problem, and Agougil is a doubt.
That leaves Cathline and Dani de Wit to carry the attack, with Broholm alongside them. De Wit has been their most consistent shooter, and Cathline’s two goals last weekend gave Correia a second option up front.
The back three of Panagiotou, Didden and Horemans is expected to start again. Utrecht have conceded at least three goals in four of their last six league games, and the run includes that 6-1 at home to PSV.
The away form is mixed rather than hopeless. Utrecht won 2-1 at Excelsior and drew 3-3 at Sparta Rotterdam, so they’ve scored at least twice on two of their recent trips. The defeat at Feyenoord was the only away game in that run where they didn’t score.
Both teams have scored in four of Utrecht’s last five games. The exception was the 5-0 at Feyenoord.
Probable lineup FC Twente: Drommel; Van Rooij, Propper, Nijstad, Adelgaard; Zerrouki, Weidmann; Rots, Taha, Pjaca; Weghorst
Probable lineup FC Utrecht: Barkas; Panagiotou, Didden, Horemans; Vesterlund, Van Overeem, Agougil, Zagre; Broholm, De Wit, Cathline
Free Football Prediction: FC Twente vs FC Utrecht
Our prediction: Over 2.5 goals
Twente at 1.35 is a fair reflection of the gap between fourth and 13th, but it’s too short to recommend. The better read is the goals line: Utrecht’s last five league games have all gone over 2.5, with 25 goals in total.
The argument against it is Twente’s defence, which has conceded three times in its last five games. But two of Twente’s four home league games have produced four or more goals, and Utrecht have scored in every one of their last five apart from the trip to Feyenoord.
I’d back over 2.5 goals. Twente have Weghorst, Taha and Weidmann all scoring, Utrecht have conceded at least three in four of their last six, and Thursday’s European game makes a tidy 1-0 home win less likely than it would be on a free week.
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