UE Tavernes vs Valencia – Free Football Prediction – Nov 10

UE Tavernes vs Valencia: a sixth-tier home tie that will be played at Mestalla

UE Tavernes are the home side on Tuesday night, but they won’t play in Tavernes de la Valldigna. The RFEF didn’t approve their municipal ground for a tie of this size, so the Copa del Rey first-round match has moved to Mestalla, the stadium of the club they’re playing.

Kick-off is Tuesday 10 November at 21:00 in Spain, 20:00 UK time. The game was originally set for Wednesday 28 October, until the RFEF suspended 24 Copa matches that day after the fatal train collision in Toledo province. Tickets sold for the first date stay valid, and almost 30,000 had already gone, with around 30 buses booked from Tavernes.

The gap between the two clubs is wide. Tavernes play in the Lliga Comunitat, the sixth tier of Spanish football, and have won two of their nine league games this season. They also changed coach on 19 October: Carlos Sapiña, who took them through the preliminary round, was sacked, and former Tavernes player Edu Palomares “Tomaca” returned to the bench. It’s a single match, with extra time and penalties if the scores are level after 90 minutes.

Valencia, though, arrive in a worse state than their name suggests. They’re 19th in LaLiga with nine points from 12 games, and their eight goals are the fewest in the division. On Saturday they lost 3-0 at home to Real Madrid, which means Mestalla still hasn’t seen a Valencia league win this season.

That last detail shapes this preview more than the four divisions between the sides. Before the postponement, Tavernes were priced at 67.00 to win, so the result itself isn’t really the debate. What I want to work out is how many goals a Valencia team that struggles to score, and that is likely to rotate, can put past a side that loses most of its games by one goal.

UE Tavernes: seven league defeats, five of them by a single goal

Tavernes opened the season with a 2-0 defeat at Santa Pola on 6 September, then lost 1-2 at home to UD Alzira a week later. Their first win came on 20 September, 2-1 at CD Thader, and was followed three days later by another 1-2 home defeat, this time to Calpe.

October explains the team better than any single result. They lost 0-1 at home to Benigànim, 1-0 at Redován and 0-1 at home to Jávea, three one-goal defeats in which they didn’t score once. The side kept those games close without finding a way to turn them.

The coaching change came in the middle of that run for Tavernes. Sapiña had led the cup campaign, including the preliminary-round win on penalties over UD Maracena, but he was dismissed on 19 October. Tomaca’s first game back was a 3-2 win at Independiente Alicante on 25 October, still the only time this season Tavernes have scored more than twice. A week later they lost 0-2 at home to CF Gandía.

Across nine league games, eight have produced three goals or fewer. Their match against Rayo Ibense has been moved to 25 November, so Tuesday’s tie gets their full attention. For the original date, the expected side was Javier Pelegrí in goal behind Pepe Peris, Artur Hayrapetyan, Jordi Meló and Joan Brines, with Edu Alberola, Toni Santandreu, Sergio Bono and Marc Talens in midfield and Joan Talens alongside Javi Llario up front.

The club has described this as the biggest match in its history, and it has never met Valencia in an official game. Ximo Enguix, who was born in Tavernes, has played at Mestalla before. I’d expect Tomaca to set the team up deep and narrow, because that’s how they’ve kept most of their defeats to a single goal against sides from their own level.

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Valencia: the lowest-scoring side in LaLiga, with Aguirre ready to rotate

Javier Aguirre replaced Carlos Corberán on 23 September, and the league record since the start of the season reads two wins, three draws and seven defeats. Valencia have scored eight and conceded 20, and they sit one place above Málaga, who are bottom on five points.

The last month has been mixed rather than disastrous. They drew 2-2 at Racing Santander, drew 0-0 at home to Athletic Club and lost 1-2 to Villarreal at Mestalla, with Georges Mikautadze scoring the winner in the 96th minute. Sadiq then scored the only goal in a 1-0 win at Elche.

Saturday’s defeat to Real Madrid was clear-cut. Federico Valverde opened the scoring on 28 minutes, Arda Güler added a second on 36 and Kylian Mbappé made it 3-0 on 75, in front of 47,914. José Gayà was sent off with a straight red card on 79 minutes for a foul on Mbappé, a ban that applies in the league; it hasn’t been confirmed whether he can play in the Copa.

The injury list matters for Tuesday. Diego López has ruptured his ACL and Otorbi is out with a hamstring problem. Sergi Canós is back in partial training after his own ACL injury but isn’t ready, Foulquier is still carrying discomfort, and Sadiq is being managed after a recent muscle issue. With the next league game not until Saturday 21 November at Rayo Vallecano, there’s no fixture pressure, but there’s also little reason to risk anyone.

Before the original date, Aguirre promised “the best possible team” while also planning to bring four or five players from the B team into the squad. The academy names mentioned were Mayol, Aimar Blázquez, Iker Córdoba, Panach, Gamón and Jaume Durá. Summer signings such as Harvey Elliott, on loan from Liverpool since around 1 September, Ryunosuke Sato, who joined from FC Tokyo in July, and Arnau Martínez, signed from Girona in late August, are the likeliest senior players to get minutes. Last season Valencia’s Copa run ended in the quarter-finals with a 1-2 home defeat to Athletic on 4 February 2026, after an earlier round against the same UD Maracena that Tavernes knocked out this year.

Probable lineup UE Tavernes: Pelegrí; Pepe Peris, Hayrapetyan, Meló, Brines; Alberola, Santandreu, Bono, Marc Talens; Joan Talens, Llario (expected XI for the original 28 October date)
Probable lineup Valencia: Not announced at time of publication

Free Football Prediction: UE Tavernes vs Valencia

Our prediction: Under 6.5 goals (1.94)

Valencia will go through, and the 1.01 on offer before the postponement says as much. The goals line is where there’s an argument to make. Before the original date, the market set the total at 6.5, which assumes Valencia will score at a rate they haven’t come near all season: eight goals in 12 league games, the lowest return in LaLiga.

Tavernes give that line more resistance than their league position suggests. Five of their seven league defeats were by a single goal, eight of their nine games finished with three goals or fewer, and Tomaca’s side has every reason to defend in numbers at Mestalla. Valencia, meanwhile, will field a rotated team with academy players, without López, Otorbi or Canós, and with Sadiq unlikely to be pushed. A four- or five-goal win is the realistic ceiling.

The risk is an early goal that breaks the dam and a tired sixth-tier side conceding late, as lower-division teams often do in this round. I still don’t see Valencia producing seven goals in one night when they’ve managed eight in three months. Under 6.5 goals at 1.94, priced before the postponement, is the pick; check the current line before kick-off.

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