- 1 Stuttgart vs Atletico Madrid: a perfect European start meets six straight wins
- 2 Stuttgart: six points from two in Europe, six points from six in the Bundesliga
- 3 Atletico Madrid: eight goals conceded in nine league games and a winner in the 89th minute on Saturday
- 4 Free Champions League Prediction: Stuttgart vs Atletico Madrid
- 5 About our free predictions
- 6 No commitment from us
- 7 Information changes
- 8 Your responsibility
- 9 Responsible gambling
- 10 Legal age
- 11 About visuals
Stuttgart vs Atletico Madrid: a perfect European start meets six straight wins 
Stuttgart had 24 shots and 66% of the ball at Hamburger SV on Saturday and lost 1-0, beaten by an 88th-minute strike from distance by Muheim. Only five of those shots were on target, and it was their fourth defeat in six Bundesliga games, leaving them on six points.
Europe has been a separate season for Sebastian Hoeneß’s side. They beat Viking 3-1 on matchday one and won 3-0 in Bratislava last Wednesday, and those six points and a 6-1 goal difference have them fourth in the league phase.
Atlético Madrid arrive on a run of six straight wins in all competitions. Álex Baena settled the latest one with an 89th-minute goal at Espanyol on Saturday, set up by Julián Álvarez, and Diego Simeone’s side are second in La Liga on 22 points, five behind Barcelona.
The two clubs have never met in a competitive match. Their only previous game was a friendly in Stuttgart in August 2018 that ended 1-1. Both sides return to league action at the weekend, Stuttgart at home to Borussia Mönchengladbach on Friday and Atlético at home to Deportivo La Coruña on Saturday.
Kick-off at the MHPArena is 20:00 UK time on Tuesday 20 October. The market makes Atlético favourites at around 2.25 to 2.32, with Stuttgart between 2.90 and 3.01. We agree with that order, and we’d want some cover against a draw.
Stuttgart: six points from two in Europe, six points from six in the Bundesliga 
The league results make for a short list of positives. Stuttgart lost to Hoffenheim on 12 September and 1-0 at home to Borussia Dortmund a week later, before Chabot and Führich scored in a 2-0 win at Paderborn on 10 October, their first away win of the league season and only their second win in it.
Ermedin Demirović has carried the European campaign so far. He scored a hat-trick against Viking and headed in late in Bratislava, and his four goals make him joint top scorer in the competition.
Deniz Undav, the captain, finally got off the mark in Europe against Slovan. He has one goal and two assists this season after scoring 25 and adding 14 assists last term.
Stuttgart have won four of their last five Champions League games. Before that run, they had won four of their previous 22 matches in European competition.
Nikolas Nartey and Tiago Tomás both missed the trip to Slovakia through injury and are doubts again. Luca Jaquez’s involvement is still to be confirmed, while the club has given the all-clear on Jeff Chabot.
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Atletico Madrid: eight goals conceded in nine league games and a winner in the 89th minute on Saturday 
Simeone’s side lost 2-1 at Liverpool on the opening night and haven’t lost since. The run reads 3-0 at Real Sociedad, 4-0 against Osasuna, 2-1 against Real Madrid, 2-1 at Alavés, 2-0 against Manchester United and 1-0 at Espanyol.
Atlético have conceded eight goals in nine La Liga matches and two in two in Europe, and Espanyol managed only two shots on target against them on Saturday, with an expected-goals total of 0.53 against Atlético’s 1.34.
Baena leads the scoring with five league goals and two assists. Álvarez is still waiting for his first league goal of the season but set up Baena’s winner on Saturday.
The summer recruitment brought in Cuti Romero, Alejandro Grimaldo, Morten Hjulmand and Kang-In Lee, and Jonathan David joined on loan from Juventus on 1 September. Giuliano Simeone and Ademola Lookman both started at Espanyol. Barrios and Lookman scored against United, Barrios inside the first minute, and the second goal arrived after Leny Yoro was sent off for a foul on David.
Koke is out for personal reasons and with a muscle problem, and Johnny Cardoso missed the weekend through illness. Pablo Barrios was taken off after 55 minutes on Saturday and Romero asked to come off after 67, though both changes were described as precautions.
Probable lineup Stuttgart: Bredlow; Mittelstädt, Chabot, Jeltsch; Stiller, Prömel; Führich, El Khannouss, Undav, Leweling; Demirović.
Probable lineup Atletico Madrid: Oblak; Grimaldo, Hancko, Romero, Llorente; Baena, Cardoso, Barrios, Giuliano Simeone; Álvarez, Kang-In Lee.
Free Champions League Prediction: Stuttgart vs Atletico Madrid
Our prediction: Atletico Madrid draw no bet at 1.67
We’re siding with the form across all competitions. Atlético have won six in a row and conceded two goals in their last five, and Simeone’s side have limited opponents to very few chances, as the two shots on target at Espanyol showed.
Stuttgart’s European results deserve respect, and they took 24 shots at Hamburg. But they’ve scored twice in their last three Bundesliga games, their wins in Europe came against Viking and Slovan Bratislava, and Nartey and Tiago Tomás are both doubts.
The fitness of Barrios and Romero is the main risk to the pick, and a draw is a realistic outcome against a side as organised as Hoeneß’s. Draw no bet on Atlético at 1.67 returns the stake in that case. For a bigger price, the straight away win is available at around 2.25 to 2.32. We’d avoid the goals markets here: both teams to score is priced at 1.44, below what we’d take, and Atlético haven’t conceded in their last two matches.
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