- 1 FC Porto vs PSV Eindhoven: perfect at home in Portugal, pointless in Europe
- 2 FC Porto: 24 points from 24, but six games in a row without a clean sheet
- 3 PSV Eindhoven: two defeats in four days and seven players unavailable
- 4 Free Champions League Prediction: FC Porto vs PSV Eindhoven
- 5 About our free predictions
- 6 No commitment from us
- 7 Information changes
- 8 Your responsibility
- 9 Responsible gambling
- 10 Legal age
- 11 About visuals
FC Porto vs PSV Eindhoven: perfect at home in Portugal, pointless in Europe 
Porto have won all eight of their Liga Portugal matches this season and lead the table on 24 points, five ahead of Benfica. In the Champions League they’ve taken nothing: a 2-0 home defeat to Manchester City on matchday one and a 3-2 loss at Real Betis last Wednesday.
PSV are 26th with a single point, from a 1-1 draw with Shakhtar Donetsk at the Philips Stadion, after Peter Bosz’s side lost 1-0 at RB Leipzig on matchday two. Porto sit four places lower in 30th, with a goal difference of minus three.
The Dutch champions travel after a damaging weekend. They lost 2-1 at ADO Den Haag on Saturday, and Mijnans, who had given them the lead in the 21st minute, was sent off two minutes before half-time. The defeat leaves PSV third in the Eredivisie on 19 points from nine games.
Francesco Farioli’s Porto had no league fixture this weekend, so they come into Tuesday’s game, 20:00 UK time at the Estádio do Dragão, with a full week of preparation. PSV will have had three days.
The clubs have met four times in Europe, with Porto winning two, PSV one and one draw. PSV won 5-0 in the 1988-89 European Cup before Porto replied with a 2-0 win, and the 1992-93 group stage finished 2-2 in Porto and 1-0 to the Portuguese side in Eindhoven. We expect the home side to add a third win to that list.
FC Porto: 24 points from 24, but six games in a row without a clean sheet 
Farioli’s side beat Benfica 3-1 at the Dragão on 20 September, won 4-1 at Casa Pia and came from Madeira with a 2-1 win at Marítimo on 10 October. Their Supertaça win over Torreense in August means they’ve won every competitive domestic match they’ve played.
Porto’s defensive record is far less convincing than their results. They’ve conceded in six straight games, including five goals across their two Champions League fixtures, and they’ve managed two European goals from an expected-goals total of 1.1. Against City they didn’t score at all, and their two goals in Seville weren’t enough to earn a point.
Jan Bednarek returns after a two-match UEFA ban, carried over from his red card against Nottingham Forest in last season’s Europa League quarter-final. He’s expected to partner Jakub Kiwior in central defence, which lets Pablo Rosario move back into midfield.
Gabri Veiga is the main threat from midfield, with four league goals plus two goals and an assist in the Champions League. Borja Sainz and André Silva have three league goals each. Santiago Giménez, signed in the summer, adds another option up front.
William Gomes is out until around 20 November and Samu’s minutes are still being managed after a long injury layoff. At home, Porto have averaged 1.62 goals scored and 0.50 conceded per game this season.
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PSV Eindhoven: two defeats in four days and seven players unavailable 
Bosz has lost three of PSV’s last five matches in all competitions: 3-2 at Twente on 20 September, 1-0 at Leipzig and 2-1 at ADO Den Haag. The wins in that run came against Sparta (4-1) and Heerenveen (2-0), both at home.
Alassane Pléa is out until around January, Sildillia until December and Wanner until the end of October with a foot problem, and Nagalo, Schouten (knee), Ouaissa (hamstring) and Lammers are also missing. Ricardo Pepi, scorer of three league goals, is a doubt.
That shortage of forwards may push Mijnans into a false nine role. His dismissal at ADO came in a domestic fixture, so he’s expected to be available in Europe, and he shares the club’s league scoring lead with Guus Til on five goals.
Away from Eindhoven, PSV have averaged 2.25 goals scored and 1.50 conceded per game. Their Champions League attack has produced one goal from 1.9 expected goals, Sano’s goal against Shakhtar.
Ivan Perišić is set to start in an attacking line that also features Til and Bajraktarević, with Ruben van Bommel listed through the middle in the predicted line-up.
Probable lineup FC Porto: Diogo Costa; Alberto Costa, Bednarek, Kiwior, Francisco Moura; Froholdt, Rosario, Gabri Veiga; Borja Sainz, André Silva, Pepê.
Probable lineup PSV Eindhoven: Kovář; Dest, Flamingo, Obispo, Mauro Júnior; Sano, Mijnans; Perišić, Til, Bajraktarević; Ruben van Bommel.
Free Champions League Prediction: FC Porto vs PSV Eindhoven
Our prediction: FC Porto to win at 1.78
Porto have won every domestic game this season and had the weekend off. PSV lost on Saturday, had a player sent off and arrive with seven absentees and a doubt over Pepi. We give heavy weight to that gap in freshness and squad depth.
The case against is Porto’s defending: six games in a row with a goal conceded and five let in across two European fixtures. PSV score 2.25 per game on the road, and a goal for the visitors wouldn’t surprise us. But Bednarek is available in the Champions League for the first time this season, and his return lets Rosario go back into midfield.
The home win is priced between 1.69 and 1.82, with 1.78 widely available. Both sides need points after poor starts to the league phase, and we’d expect Porto’s home numbers, 1.62 goals scored and 0.50 conceded per game, to carry them through.
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