- 1 San Jose Sharks vs Buffalo Sabres: eight of their combined last ten games went past six goals
- 2 San Jose Sharks: Celebrini’s 15 points, and a lineup that keeps losing forwards
- 3 Buffalo Sabres: fewest shots allowed in the matchup, but a 70% penalty kill and a .866 goalie
- 4 Free NHL Prediction: San Jose Sharks vs Buffalo Sabres
- 5 About our free predictions
- 6 No commitment from us
- 7 Information changes
- 8 Your responsibility
- 9 Responsible gambling
- 10 Legal age
- 11 About visuals
San Jose Sharks vs Buffalo Sabres: eight of their combined last ten games went past six goals 
San Jose have spent the last ten days on the road in the Eastern Conference. The trip started with a 4-3 shootout loss in Detroit on 17 October, went through Toronto, Montreal and Ottawa, and finished with a 6-4 defeat in Boston on Saturday. Five games, two wins, and a point from the shootout.
Tuesday is the first home game since then. The Sharks host the Buffalo Sabres at SAP Center, puck drop 10:30pm ET on Tuesday 27 October, and they do it at 6-5-1 with 13 points, fourth in the Pacific Division.
Buffalo arrive with a worse record and a stranger one. The Sabres are 4-4-3, level on 11 points with Detroit in the Atlantic, and they’ve lost three of their last five games after regulation. Their only win in that run came in overtime in Toronto, 5-4 on 15 October.
The pricing makes this close to a coin toss. The prediction markets have Buffalo at about 55% and San Jose at about 46%, and one projection model has the Sabres at 52.3%. Neither team has given a strong reason to separate them.
I’m not going to try. The more useful question is how many goals these two teams allow, and the answer, across both of their last five games, is a lot. Ten games, eight of them with seven goals or more.
San Jose Sharks: Celebrini’s 15 points, and a lineup that keeps losing forwards 
Macklin Celebrini has 15 points, five goals and ten assists, and the Sharks’ offence runs through him. San Jose average 3.0 goals and 28.1 shots per game, and their power play has converted in the mid-20s percent range early in the season.
The road trip showed both sides of this team. The Sharks scored four in a 4-3 overtime win in Montreal on 20 October and six in a 6-2 win in Ottawa two nights later. Then they conceded six in Boston, which took their goals-against average to 3.5 per game.
That defensive number comes partly from volume. San Jose are allowing a little more than 30 shots a game, which puts a lot of work on the goaltending. Alex Nedeljkovic is sitting on a .903 save percentage, respectable without being the kind of number that steals games.
The injury list is long and it’s mostly forwards. Alexander Wennberg (upper body) isn’t expected back until around 8 November, Chernyshov until mid-November and Musty until the end of the month. In goal, Keyser is also out with an upper-body injury until late November, which thins the depth behind Nedeljkovic.
Coming home after a ten-day trip can cut either way. The Sharks get their own building and two days off between Saturday’s game and this one, but the body clock is still three time zones away, and they’ve conceded 18 goals across the five road games.
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Buffalo Sabres: fewest shots allowed in the matchup, but a 70% penalty kill and a .866 goalie 
Buffalo’s best defensive habit is limiting volume. The Sabres keep opponents to about 27 shots a game, three fewer than San Jose allow, and that’s the main reason the moneyline leans their way.
What happens to those shots is another matter. Buffalo’s goals-against average is 3.6, the higher of the two teams, and Ukko-Pekka Luukkonen’s save percentage of .866 explains most of it. Backup Alex Lyon is on the injury list with an upper-body problem and isn’t expected back until around 30 October.
Special teams make it worse. Buffalo’s penalty kill is running near 70%, and San Jose’s power play is in the mid-20s. If the Sabres take three minors on Tuesday, the Sharks are likely to score at least once with the extra man.
The attack is modest. Buffalo score 2.8 goals and take 26.4 shots per game, the lower figure in both columns. Jack Quinn leads the team with six goals and 11 points, and Owen Power has seven assists from the blue line. Kulich is out with a facial injury until the end of the month.
The recent results all look alike. Buffalo lost 3-1 to Philadelphia on 21 October, then lost 4-3 in overtime in Washington on Saturday. Before that came a 4-3 defeat to Montreal, the 5-4 overtime win in Toronto and a 4-3 shootout loss to Montreal. Four of those five games finished with seven goals or more.
Probable lineup San Jose Sharks: Not announced at time of publication (Wennberg, Chernyshov, Musty and Keyser out).
Probable lineup Buffalo Sabres: Not announced at time of publication (Lyon and Kulich out).
Free NHL Prediction: San Jose Sharks vs Buffalo Sabres
Our prediction: Over 6.5 goals (odds around 1.75)
Add goals scored to goals conceded and both teams sit at 6.4 or 6.5 per game, so this line is set almost exactly at the season average. I’m still on the Over, because the inputs point higher than the averages. Luukkonen is at .866, Nedeljkovic at .903, and the Sharks are without one of their goalies for another month.
The recent games back that up. San Jose’s last five went 7, 4, 7, 8 and 10 goals. Buffalo’s went 7, 9, 7, 4 and 7. Only two of those ten games stayed under seven, and both were games where one team scored a single goal.
Add a 70% penalty kill against a power play converting in the mid-20s, and a Sharks team playing its first home game after ten days on the road, and I’d expect this to land at 4-3 or higher. The Over is available around 1.75, and I’d play it down to 1.65.
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