- 1 Green Bay Packers vs Carolina Panthers: the worst run game in the league meets the worst run defence
- 2 Green Bay Packers: fifth in EPA per play, undone by the kicking game
- 3 Carolina Panthers: 29.2 points a game, but five sacks and four turnovers in Week 7
- 4 Free NFL Prediction: Green Bay Packers vs Carolina Panthers
- 5 About our free predictions
- 6 No commitment from us
- 7 Information changes
- 8 Your responsibility
- 9 Responsible gambling
- 10 Legal age
- 11 About visuals
Green Bay Packers vs Carolina Panthers: the worst run game in the league meets the worst run defence 
Green Bay lost at Detroit on Sunday because of two kicks that should have been routine. Trey Smack missed a pair of short field goals, the Lions got the ball back, and Jake Bates won it 20-17 with a 22-yarder as time expired. That result ended a three-game winning streak and left the Packers 4-3 and fourth in the NFC North.
Carolina’s Sunday was worse, and in a different way. Tampa Bay led 33-6 at halftime in Charlotte, ran for 258 yards and won 43-13, forcing four turnovers along the way. The Panthers are 3-3 and still sit top of the NFC South, which says more about the division than about them.
Both teams now turn round on a short week for Thursday Night Football at Lambeau Field, kick-off 8:15pm ET on Thursday 29 October. The Panthers also have the travel from Charlotte to absorb, and they’ll do it without their starting right tackle.
The market has settled on Green Bay by 3.5 points, with the Packers around 1.52 on the moneyline and Carolina at 2.60. The line opened at three and has drifted half a point towards the home side, while the total has climbed from 45.5 to 47.5.
I think the half-point move is the right one. The matchup that decides this game isn’t the one most people will be watching, which is Bryce Young against the Packers secondary. It’s Carolina’s battered offensive line trying to keep a quarterback upright after he was sacked five times last week, and a Green Bay offence that can’t run the ball facing a defence that can’t stop the run.
Green Bay Packers: fifth in EPA per play, undone by the kicking game 
The underlying numbers are kinder to Green Bay than the standings. The Packers rank fifth in the league in EPA per play and allow 4.6 yards per play, and over seven games they’ve conceded 20.8 points and 307.7 yards a game. Detroit managed only 20 against them on Sunday, a figure most teams would happily take in that building.
Scoring has been harder. Green Bay average 21.2 points and 329.2 yards per game, and a large part of the gap between the efficiency and the scoreboard comes from the ground game. The Packers went into Week 7 ranked last in the NFL in both rushing yards and yards per carry, at 2.9, and they average just 59.8 rushing yards a game. Josh Jacobs had 36 yards on 11 carries in Detroit, although he also caught a 25-yard touchdown.
That puts the weight on Jordan Love. He’s completing 60% of his passes, which isn’t spectacular, but he threw two touchdowns and one interception at Ford Field and put up 367 yards in the home win over Chicago. With Christian Watson stretching the field and Tucker Kraft working the middle, Love has the targets to punish a Carolina pass defence that has been below average all season.
The worry for Thursday is in the middle of the line. Centre Sean Rhyan left Sunday’s game with an ankle injury and his backup, Jacob Monk, went off with a quad problem. Matt LaFleur reportedly expects both to miss this game, which leaves John Williams as the emergency option to snap the ball on a short week.
The defence is also thinner than it was in August. Micah Parsons remains on the PUP list, and Edgerrin Cooper, Javon Hargrave, Jayden Reed and Chris Brooks are all on injured reserve. Even so, Green Bay are 2-1 against the spread at home and the Under has landed in five of their seven games.
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Carolina Panthers: 29.2 points a game, but five sacks and four turnovers in Week 7 
Carolina’s season totals look like those of a good offence. The Panthers average 29.2 points and 404.4 yards per game, gain 5.9 yards per play and score touchdowns on two thirds of their red-zone trips. Bryce Young went into Week 7 leading the league in passing yards per game.
Sunday showed what happens when the protection goes. Young finished 14 of 27 for 163 yards with one touchdown and two interceptions, was sacked five times and lost a fumble that Calijah Kancey returned for a Tampa Bay score. Darren Waller’s 50-yard touchdown was the only big play Carolina produced all afternoon.
The protection is about to get weaker. Right tackle Taylor Moton fractured his fibula against the Buccaneers and is expected to be out for some time, and Ikem Ekwonu is still on the PUP list. A line that couldn’t hold up at home against Tampa Bay now goes to Lambeau with two of its regular tackles missing, on three days of preparation.
Defensively, Carolina allow 24.6 points and 354.2 yards per game, and their run defence has been the worst in the league by yards per carry, conceding 132.2 rushing yards a game. Bucky Irving’s 106 yards and two touchdowns on Sunday were the latest example. Jaelan Phillips is questionable, and Jaycee Horn, Xavier Legette and Jonathon Brooks are on injured reserve.
Overall, the Panthers rank 20th in EPA per play. They’re 3-3 against the spread and 2-1 against it on the road, and their Overs and Unders are split three apiece, so there’s no strong betting pattern to lean on either way.
Probable lineup Green Bay Packers: QB Jordan Love, RB Josh Jacobs, WR Christian Watson, TE Tucker Kraft, C John Williams (if Rhyan and Monk are ruled out). Full depth chart not announced at time of publication.
Probable lineup Carolina Panthers: QB Bryce Young, RB Chuba Hubbard, WR Tetairoa McMillan, WR Jalen Coker, TE Darren Waller. Taylor Moton out. Full depth chart not announced at time of publication.
Free NFL Prediction: Green Bay Packers vs Carolina Panthers
Our prediction: Green Bay Packers -3.5 (odds 1.91)
The case for Green Bay rests on the trenches rather than the quarterbacks. Carolina’s offence depends on Young having time, and he’s just been sacked five times by a line that still had Moton on it. Without him, and with Ekwonu also missing, the Packers can create pressure even without Parsons, and Green Bay’s defence already allows only 4.6 yards per play.
The obvious objection is the Packers’ own running game, which is the worst in the league. Carolina’s run defence is the worst in the league too, though, so this is the one week where Jacobs should find some room and keep Love out of long-yardage situations. Green Bay also lost two short field goals’ worth of points in Detroit. Over a full season that sort of miss evens out, and a team that ranks fifth in EPA per play should be scoring more than 21.2 a game.
Both sides are on a short week, but only one has to travel, and only one is coming off a 30-point home defeat. I’d take Green Bay to win by four or more at 1.91, and I’d still play it if the line moved to -4.
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