- 1 Toronto Raptors vs Orlando Magic: no Banchero, maybe no Kawhi, and a Magic team giving the ball away 17 times a night
- 2 Toronto Raptors: 13.7 steals a game, and a 0-for-12 from Scottie Barnes to forget
- 3 Orlando Magic: a win at the Garden, but 116.3 points allowed and 17 turnovers a game
- 4 Free NBA Prediction: Toronto Raptors vs Orlando Magic
- 5 About our free predictions
- 6 No commitment from us
- 7 Information changes
- 8 Your responsibility
- 9 Responsible gambling
- 10 Legal age
- 11 About visuals
Toronto Raptors vs Orlando Magic: no Banchero, maybe no Kawhi, and a Magic team giving the ball away 17 times a night 
Kawhi Leonard was added to Toronto’s injury report about an hour before tip-off in Minneapolis on Sunday, with swelling in his left knee. He’ll undergo further tests, and Darko Rajakovic described his availability for Wednesday as “up in the air”. Without him, the Raptors lost 117-94 to the Timberwolves, their first defeat of the season.
Orlando’s absence is longer and already confirmed. Paolo Banchero sprained his right ankle on Friday and is expected to miss at least four weeks. The Magic then went to Madison Square Garden without him on Sunday and beat the Knicks 111-102, their first win after two home defeats.
So the two teams meet at Scotiabank Arena on Wednesday 28 October, tip-off 7:30pm ET, at 2-1 and 1-2. It’s the first of two meetings in three days, with the same matchup scheduled again on Friday at the same time.
The prediction markets have Toronto around -230, roughly 1.43 in decimal, with Orlando near 3.30. The sportsbooks hadn’t posted a spread at the time of writing, partly because nobody yet knows whether Leonard plays.
I’d still make Toronto a clear favourite without him, and the reason has less to do with stars than with possession. The Raptors force turnovers at a rate few teams can match, and the Magic, even with Banchero, have been giving the ball away more than almost anyone.
Toronto Raptors: 13.7 steals a game, and a 0-for-12 from Scottie Barnes to forget 
Toronto’s numbers after three games are built on defence. The Raptors allow 103.7 points per game and have a +10.0 point differential, and they average 13.7 steals and 6.0 blocks. They also average 46.0 rebounds a game, more than Orlando’s 43.7.
Sunday was the exception on both counts. Minnesota won the rebounding 49-34 and led by as many as 32, Anthony Edwards scored 26 in 27 minutes, and Toronto went 10 of 38 from three. Scottie Barnes missed all 12 of his field-goal attempts, which says more about one bad night than about his season.
The shooting is a genuine concern, though. Toronto are hitting 42.4% from the field and 26.2% from three across the three games, numbers that only work because the defence keeps creating extra possessions. A team that protects the ball would test that formula, and Orlando, at 17 turnovers a game, haven’t been protecting it.
Leonard’s status changes the shape of the rotation more than the result. He had 16 points, nine rebounds and three steals in 28 minutes in Friday’s win over Washington and averaged 19.5 points over the first two games. Ja’Kobe Walter started in his place on Sunday and scored 22 on 7 of 12 shooting, the best performance in a bad night.
Elsewhere, RJ Barrett scored 20 and Immanuel Quickley 19 in Minneapolis, and Allen Graves, in only his third NBA game, went 5 of 7 from the field. Jakob Poeltl anchors the middle. Leonard is 35 and missed multiple games with a bruise on the same knee in January, so caution on Wednesday wouldn’t be a surprise.
no renewal
Free for 2 weeks.
Orlando Magic: a win at the Garden, but 116.3 points allowed and 17 turnovers a game 
The win in New York was a good result by any standard. The Knicks are the defending champions, and Orlando beat them by nine on their own floor less than 48 hours after losing Banchero. Anthony Black, listed as questionable with his own ankle sprain, played and scored nine points in the first quarter.
The wider numbers are less flattering. Orlando have allowed 116.3 points per game and carry a -6.7 point differential, and they’ve turned the ball over 17.0 times a game while averaging 7.7 steals themselves. Against a Toronto defence collecting 13.7 steals a night, that gap is where this game is likely to be decided.
Without Banchero, the shot creation falls on Franz Wagner, Desmond Bane and Jalen Suggs. Wagner had 18 points, six rebounds and five assists in Friday’s home defeat to Minnesota, and Wendell Carter Jr. added 20 points and nine rebounds in the same game.
The frontcourt is thin behind Carter. Jonathan Isaac is out with a left knee problem, Noah Penda has a partially torn right hamstring and Izaiyah Nelson is still recovering from a left ankle injury. That leaves Orlando short of size against a Toronto team averaging 46.0 rebounds a game.
The recent history between the two teams leans Toronto’s way. The Raptors have won 14 of the last 21 meetings, including a 139-87 rout on 29 March, although Orlando won 130-120 in January and the December game finished 107-106.
Probable lineup Toronto Raptors: Immanuel Quickley, Ja’Kobe Walter, RJ Barrett, Scottie Barnes, Jakob Poeltl (Kawhi Leonard questionable, left knee).
Probable lineup Orlando Magic: Jalen Suggs, Desmond Bane, Franz Wagner, Wendell Carter Jr., fifth starter not announced at time of publication (Paolo Banchero, Jonathan Isaac, Noah Penda and Izaiyah Nelson out).
Free NBA Prediction: Toronto Raptors vs Orlando Magic
Our prediction: Toronto Raptors on the handicap at -5.5 or shorter (spread not posted at time of writing)
Toronto’s moneyline around 1.43 is too short to back, so I’d rather take the Raptors on the handicap once the books post a number. The main argument is possession: Orlando give the ball away 17 times a game, Toronto take it away almost 14 times a game, and without Banchero there’s one fewer Magic player who can be trusted to handle pressure.
What could go wrong is Toronto’s shooting. A team hitting 26.2% from three can’t afford long cold spells, and Sunday showed what happens when the extra possessions dry up. That’s why I’d stop at -5.5 rather than chase a bigger number if Leonard is ruled out.
At home, rested after two days off, against a Magic team that has allowed 116.3 points a night and is missing its best player, Toronto should win this by six or more. If Leonard is confirmed and the line moves past -7, I’d still play the Raptors, but at smaller stakes.
in your pocket.
Real-time notifications & alerts
_________
About our free predictions
- What we publish on MathOdds are analyses, nothing more. We share a view, a reading of the moment, but never a guarantee. Sport remains what it is: unpredictable. A red card, an injury, a last-minute goal, and the script changes completely.
- Let’s be clear: there is no such thing as a risk-free bet. Even when it looks “obvious”, nothing ever is. And yes, that means you can lose. It’s even inevitable at some point.
- The smartest approach is to stay reasonable. Bet small, set a budget and stick to it. Never use money you need to live on. And above all: don’t chase your losses: that rarely ends well.
- A bet should remain a game, not a job or a source of income. If it starts taking up too much space in your daily life, causes stress or frustration, take a break. And if needed, talk to a support organisation: that’s what they’re there for.
- Ultimately, responsibility lies with you. Reading our content means accepting that risk exists and will never disappear, no matter how good the analysis.
- Essential reminder: gambling is prohibited for minors and must comply with the laws of your country. Need help? Visit begambleaware.org.
No commitment from us
Our predictions carry no contractual value. They have no legal standing. In short: you cannot rely on them to claim anything if a bet doesn’t come through.
Information changes
A prediction is always based on what we know at the time of writing. But between publication and kick-off, a lineup can change, a player picks up an injury, the weather turns, and the analysis can quickly be outdated. We cannot be held responsible for that.
Your responsibility
Before placing a bet, simply check that gambling is legal in your country. If it isn’t, that’s your responsibility, not ours.
Responsible gambling
We can’t say it enough: gamble responsibly. If you’re struggling to stay in control, don’t wait to seek help.
Legal age
MathOdds content is intended for adults only. By browsing here, you confirm you meet the legal age requirement for gambling in your jurisdiction.
About visuals
The images and logos of Toronto Raptors and Orlando Magic on MathOdds are used solely to illustrate our articles. They do not imply any official affiliation with a federation or sports organisation, and we claim no rights over them. Those rights belong to their original owners. If any visual raises a concern, contact us and it will be removed without delay.
Leave a Reply