- 1 San Marino vs Belarus: 11 goals to nil across three meetings
- 2 San Marino: one goal in four games and nine players from Tropical Coriano
- 3 Belarus: three clean sheets in a row and a title race still open
- 4 Free Football Prediction: San Marino vs Belarus
- 5 About our free predictions
- 6 No commitment from us
- 7 Information changes
- 8 Your responsibility
- 9 Responsible gambling
- 10 Legal age
- 11 About visuals
San Marino vs Belarus: 11 goals to nil across three meetings 
San Marino have played Belarus three times and haven’t scored once. Belarus won 5-0 in Minsk in September 2018, 2-0 in Serravalle two months later and 4-0 in Budapest on 3 October this year, an aggregate of 11-0.
The fourth meeting is on Thursday 12 November at the San Marino Stadium in Serravalle, kick-off 20:45 local time and 19:45 UK time. It’s matchday five of League C, Group 1 in the Nations League, and the other game in the group, Albania against Finland, is played the same evening.
The table explains why Belarus can’t treat this as a formality. Albania lead on nine points, Finland and Belarus have seven each, and San Marino are bottom with none. Belarus are second on head-to-head after beating Finland 1-0 in October, so a win in Serravalle keeps them within touching distance of first place, whatever happens in Tirana.
San Marino’s campaign has followed the usual pattern. Four games, four defeats, one goal scored and 16 conceded. Their last win of any kind came on 18 November 2024, 3-1 away to Liechtenstein, and the only goal they’ve managed this autumn was Lorenzo Lazzari’s in a 2-1 defeat in Albania.
So the question is less about the winner than about the margin and the clean sheet. Belarus have kept three in a row in this competition, and I think the way they’ve played since September makes a fourth the likeliest outcome on Thursday night.
San Marino: one goal in four games and nine players from Tropical Coriano 
The campaign began with a 0-7 home defeat to Finland on 26 September, with Pohjanpalo scoring a hat-trick in front of 1,148 spectators. Three days later Albania won 3-0 in Serravalle, and on 3 October San Marino lost 4-0 to Belarus in Budapest, a match played behind closed doors.
The best performance came last. In Tirana on 6 October they trailed to an 11th-minute goal from Asllani, levelled through Lazzari on 66 minutes and held on until Asllani’s penalty in stoppage time. That 2-1 defeat is the closest they’ve come to a point this autumn.
Roberto Cevoli named 26 players on 6 November, and the list shows the scale of the gap. Nine of them, including Lazzari, Capicchioni and Pasolini, play for Tropical Coriano, and the rest are spread across clubs such as Folgore, Virtus, Lucchese and Rimini. Nicola Nanni, with 58 caps and five international goals, and Marcello Mularoni, with 59 caps, are the most experienced players in the group.
One change from October stands out: defender Michele Cevoli, who started against Belarus, isn’t in the squad, and no reason has been given. Goalkeeper Edoardo Colombo of Gzira United, with 27 caps, started that game and is likely to keep his place. In October the coach used a 4-3-1-2 and switched to a 4-4-2 in Albania.
The fixture list doesn’t help either. San Marino travel to Helsinki on Sunday 15 November for their final group game against Finland, the side that put seven past them. Cevoli has to get two matches out of a squad that has conceded four goals a game on average.
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Belarus: three clean sheets in a row and a title race still open 
Belarus started the group badly. They lost 2-0 in Albania on 26 September and drew 0-0 in Finland three days later, two away games in which they didn’t score. The turnaround came when they returned to their temporary home in Budapest, where UEFA requires them to play behind closed doors.
On 3 October they beat San Marino 4-0 at the Illovszky Rudolf Stadion. Kontsevoy scored on 46 and 88 minutes, Shumanskiy added one on 65 and Ebong another on 68, with Pechenin providing two assists. Three days later Shumanskiy scored in the first minute against Finland, and Belarus defended that lead for the rest of the game to win 1-0.
Those results mean three straight clean sheets, with five goals scored and two conceded across the four matches. The form goes back further: in 2026 friendlies in Minsk they beat Cyprus 1-0, Armenia 2-1 and Syria 4-1 before a 2-2 draw with Burkina Faso in June. Viktor Goncharenko, appointed this year, has a side that doesn’t give much away.
The squad for November has one notable absence. Yevgeny Yablonsky, captain as of March and a starter against San Marino in October, isn’t on the list, and no explanation has been given. Kontsevoy, Gromyko and Bocherov from ML Vitebsk are in, as are Ebong of CSKA Sofia, Shumansky of Akron, Melnichenko of Porto and Lisakovich of Tobol, who has seven goals in 28 caps.
Belarus face Albania on Sunday 15 November, a game that could decide the group. That gives Goncharenko a reason to win comfortably in Serravalle without burning his first-choice players. In October’s 4-0 win over San Marino he used a back four of Pechenin, Gomanov, Volkov and Begunov in front of Pavlyuchenko, and all five are in the November squad.
Probable lineup San Marino: Not announced at time of publication
Probable lineup Belarus: Not announced at time of publication
Free Football Prediction: San Marino vs Belarus
Our prediction: Belarus to win to nil
Belarus are 1.10 to win, too short to back on its own, so the pick combines the result with the clean sheet. The case rests on two records: Belarus haven’t conceded in three Nations League games, and San Marino have never scored against them in three attempts.
San Marino’s only goal of the campaign came in their fourth game, and they’ve failed to score in three of four. Against a Belarus defence that has allowed two goals in four matches, and that kept Finland out over 90 minutes in October, a San Marino goal would need a set-piece or a mistake. Their squad changes since October don’t add anything going forward.
The doubt is rotation. Goncharenko may hold some players back for Albania on Sunday, and a weaker Belarus side might ease off once ahead, as they did after leading 1-0 against Finland. That still points to a narrow win rather than a San Marino goal. Belarus to win to nil is our pick; the price for that market hadn’t been published at the time of writing, so check it before kick-off.
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