- 1 Burton Albion vs Notts County: Burton need a win, Notts are already through
- 2 Burton Albion: one league win in six, but four goals in the FA Cup
- 3 Notts County: two from two in the group and unbeaten in four
- 4 Free Football Prediction: Burton Albion vs Notts County
- 5 About our free predictions
- 6 No commitment from us
- 7 Information changes
- 8 Your responsibility
- 9 Responsible gambling
- 10 Legal age
- 11 About visuals
Burton Albion vs Notts County: Burton need a win, Notts are already through
Notts County have taken six points from six in this EFL Trophy group and are already in the knockout rounds. Burton Albion have three points from two games, both of them draws settled on penalties, and a win at the Pirelli Stadium on Tuesday 10 November, kick-off 19:00 UK time, would guarantee them a place alongside their visitors.
That gap in what each side needs from the night is where we start. Burton’s group record reads 1-1 against Nottingham Forest Under-21s, lost on penalties, and 0-0 at Grimsby Town, won on penalties. Notts beat Grimsby 2-1 and put five past the same Forest Under-21 side, winning 5-1.
The history goes the other way. Notts County have never lost to Burton in any competition, and the two most recent meetings both finished 2-1 to Notts. The latest was in League One on 29 August at Meadow Lane, where Finn Delap gave Burton a 22nd-minute lead before Luka Smyth scored twice, in the 78th and 84th minutes. Curtis Tilt was sent off for Burton in the 83rd minute, between the two goals.
The previous meeting was also in this competition, at this ground. On 24 September 2024, in front of 1,199 people at the Pirelli Stadium, Notts led 2-0 through goals in the 29th and 54th minutes before Burton pulled one back three minutes from time.
League One form gives little to separate them. Burton are 15th with 17 points from 14 games. Notts are 17th on 14 points but have played two games fewer, so the table flatters Burton slightly. With the league the priority for both clubs, we’d expect the team sheets on Tuesday to tell us more about intent than anything said beforehand.
Burton Albion: one league win in six, but four goals in the FA Cup 
Gary Bowyer’s side have won one of their last six League One matches. The recent run includes a 1-0 defeat at Doncaster Rovers, a 2-2 draw at Peterborough United, a goalless home draw with Bradford City, a 2-1 home win over Leyton Orient and a 2-0 loss at Wycombe Wanderers.
Saturday’s FA Cup tie was a break from that pattern. Burton beat AFC Rushden and Diamonds 4-0, with Will Collar, Raphael Borges Rodrigues, Charlie Webster and Zac Scutt all scoring. It came against non-league opposition, so we wouldn’t lean on it too hard, but it was Burton’s biggest winning margin of the run.
Scutt is the selection question. He came off the bench to score against Rushden and is expected to start up front alongside Webster, with O’Mahony ahead of them. That would be an attacking shape for a home side who need three points rather than one.
Defensively the numbers are better than the results. Burton kept clean sheets against Bradford, Grimsby and Rushden, and the 0-0 at Blundell Park came against a Grimsby side that Notts only beat by a single goal. Tilt, Lewis and Sibbick are expected to form the back three again.
No injuries or suspensions have been reported for Burton ahead of Tuesday. Tilt’s red card at Meadow Lane in August came in the league, and he’s expected to start here. Bowyer has a full squad to pick from for a game his side can’t afford to draw.
no renewal
Free for 2 weeks.
Notts County: two from two in the group and unbeaten in four 
Martin Paterson’s side arrive unbeaten in four games in all competitions. In the league they’ve beaten Sheffield Wednesday 2-0 at home, won 2-0 at Mansfield Town and drawn 1-1 with Stockport County, with the last defeat a 2-0 loss at Wycombe.
The FA Cup weekend was harder work. Notts drew 2-2 at Altrincham, with Jacob Bedeau and Callum Roberts scoring for them and Lucas Weaver and Lewis Banks replying for the hosts, before going through on penalties. A trip to a non-league ground that went to spot-kicks isn’t the kind of weekend that leaves a squad fresh for a Tuesday night.
Roberts has scored in each of the last two games and is likely to play behind the front two. Smyth, who scored both goals against Burton in August, and Kanu are expected to lead the line. Belshaw should be in goal behind a back three of Bedeau, Ness and McDonald.
The group results show what this side can do when it plays at full tempo. Five goals against Forest’s Under-21s and a 2-1 win over Grimsby took Notts through with a game to spare, and they’ve scored seven times in two group matches against Burton’s one.
How many of those players start on Tuesday is still unknown. Notts sit three points behind Burton in League One with two games in hand, and qualification is already secured. Paterson hasn’t said he’ll rotate, and no injuries or suspensions have been reported, but the incentive to protect players for Saturday is greater at Meadow Lane than it is at the Pirelli.
Probable lineup Burton Albion: Addai; Tilt, Lewis, Sibbick; Rodrigues, Chauke, Collar, Adiele; Webster, Scutt; O’Mahony
Probable lineup Notts County: Belshaw; Bedeau, Ness, McDonald; Tsaroulla, Robertson, Finneran, Samuels-Smith; Roberts; Kanu, Smyth
Free Football Prediction: Burton Albion vs Notts County
Our prediction: Burton Albion to win
We’re going against the head-to-head here. Notts have the better recent form and the history, and Smyth’s two goals in August came against a Burton side that had led for most of the game. That record would usually decide it for us.
What changes the picture is the table. Burton need a win to be certain of the knockout rounds, they’re at home, and they’ve kept clean sheets against Bradford, Grimsby and Rushden. Notts have nothing left to play for in this group and a league position, 17th with games in hand, that matters far more to them than first place in it.
We’d take the Burton win at a price of 1.45 or above. We couldn’t find a bookmaker price at the time of writing, so check the market before kick-off, and check the Notts team sheet too: if Paterson names a full-strength side, we’d step back from this one.
in your pocket.
Real-time notifications & alerts
_________
About our free predictions
- What we publish on MathOdds are analyses, nothing more. We share a view, a reading of the moment, but never a guarantee. Sport remains what it is: unpredictable. A red card, an injury, a last-minute goal, and the script changes completely.
- Let’s be clear: there is no such thing as a risk-free bet. Even when it looks “obvious”, nothing ever is. And yes, that means you can lose. It’s even inevitable at some point.
- The smartest approach is to stay reasonable. Bet small, set a budget and stick to it. Never use money you need to live on. And above all: don’t chase your losses: that rarely ends well.
- A bet should remain a game, not a job or a source of income. If it starts taking up too much space in your daily life, causes stress or frustration, take a break. And if needed, talk to a support organisation: that’s what they’re there for.
- Ultimately, responsibility lies with you. Reading our content means accepting that risk exists and will never disappear, no matter how good the analysis.
- Essential reminder: gambling is prohibited for minors and must comply with the laws of your country. Need help? Visit begambleaware.org.
No commitment from us
Our predictions carry no contractual value. They have no legal standing. In short: you cannot rely on them to claim anything if a bet doesn’t come through.
Information changes
A prediction is always based on what we know at the time of writing. But between publication and kick-off, a lineup can change, a player picks up an injury, the weather turns, and the analysis can quickly be outdated. We cannot be held responsible for that.
Your responsibility
Before placing a bet, simply check that gambling is legal in your country. If it isn’t, that’s your responsibility, not ours.
Responsible gambling
We can’t say it enough: gamble responsibly. If you’re struggling to stay in control, don’t wait to seek help.
Legal age
MathOdds content is intended for adults only. By browsing here, you confirm you meet the legal age requirement for gambling in your jurisdiction.
About visuals
The images and logos of Burton Albion and Notts County on MathOdds are used solely to illustrate our articles. They do not imply any official affiliation with a federation or sports organisation, and we claim no rights over them. Those rights belong to their original owners. If any visual raises a concern, contact us and it will be removed without delay.
Leave a Reply