- 1 San Jose Sharks vs Pittsburgh Penguins: a 1-6 slide against a 1-6-1 road team
- 2 San Jose Sharks: 2.44 goals a game and one win since 22 October
- 3 Pittsburgh Penguins: eight losses in 10 and a 17.8% power play
- 4 Free NHL Prediction: San Jose Sharks vs Pittsburgh Penguins
- 5 About our free predictions
- 6 No commitment from us
- 7 Information changes
- 8 Your responsibility
- 9 Responsible gambling
- 10 Legal age
- 11 About visuals
San Jose Sharks vs Pittsburgh Penguins: a 1-6 slide against a 1-6-1 road team 
Sidney Crosby didn’t register a point in Thursday’s 6-2 home loss to Boston, so he’s still tied with Marcel Dionne on 1,771 career points, sixth on the NHL’s all-time list. Pittsburgh’s three-game West Coast trip gives him three chances to pass Dionne, and the last of them is Wednesday 11 November at SAP Center, puck drop 10:00pm ET.
The trip starts with the Penguins in poor shape. That Boston game was their fourth straight defeat and their eighth in 10, and the Bruins scored twice on 2-on-1s and once on a partial breakaway after a bad line change. Erik Karlsson finished minus-4, and Arturs Silovs made 18 saves.
San Jose is in a deeper hole. The Sharks lost 4-1 in Minnesota on Friday, two nights after a 7-2 defeat in Los Angeles, and they’re 1-6-0 in their last seven games. Their 44 goals in 18 games work out to 2.44 a night, the third-lowest scoring rate in the league.
Neither team has a venue record worth leaning on. Pittsburgh has won once in eight road games, 7-0 in Philadelphia on opening night, and has gone 0-6-1 away from home since. San Jose is 3-5-0 at SAP Center, and two of those three wins came in overtime in the first week of the season.
The calendar gives the Penguins a small edge. They play in Los Angeles on Saturday and Anaheim on Sunday, then get two days off before this game. The Sharks play in Dallas on Saturday and host the Islanders on Monday, so they’ll have one day between games.
I’d take the team with Crosby, Evgeni Malkin and Karlsson against the league’s 30th-ranked attack, even with that road record.
San Jose Sharks: 2.44 goals a game and one win since 22 October 
The Sharks are 7-10-1 and fifth in the Pacific. Their last win was a 3-2 home result against Vancouver at the end of October, and since then they’ve lost to Ottawa 5-1, Calgary 2-1, Los Angeles 7-2 and Minnesota 4-1.
Macklin Celebrini carries most of the scoring. He has seven goals and 11 assists in 16 games, and he scored in both the Los Angeles and Minnesota losses. Will Smith has six goals, and Ivar Stenberg and Tyler Toffoli have three power-play goals each.
San Jose takes 27.2 shots a game and allows 30.1. Its power play converts at 21.9% and the penalty kill sits at 79.4%, both middle-of-the-pack numbers, so the goal shortfall comes from even strength.
Yaroslav Askarov has made 12 of the 18 starts and he’s 4-8-0 with an .885 save percentage and a 3.35 goals-against average. Alex Nedeljkovic has the better line, 3-2-1 with an .899 in six starts. Askarov made 20 saves in Los Angeles and 25 in Minnesota.
The injury list includes Igor Chernyshov (upper body, projected back around 14 November), Quentin Musty (upper body, around 1 December) and goaltender Kyle Keyser. Alexander Wennberg’s upper-body injury carried a projected return of 7 November.
Five of San Jose’s seven wins needed overtime or a shootout, against Florida, Los Angeles, St. Louis, Nashville and Montreal. In regulation the Sharks have won twice all season, 6-2 in Ottawa and 3-2 against Vancouver.
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Pittsburgh Penguins: eight losses in 10 and a 17.8% power play 
Pittsburgh is 5-9-2 and seventh in the Metropolitan. The power play has scored eight times in 16 games, a 17.8% rate, and Karlsson leads the team in points with three goals and 13 assists from the back end.
The forward group is thinner than usual. Bryan Rust is on injured reserve with a lower-body injury and isn’t projected back before early December, Ryan Graves (knee) is out until late November, and Elmer Soderblom’s upper-body injury has a projected return around 14 November.
Tommy Novak has five goals and seven assists and scored in the third-period comeback against Vegas on Tuesday, a game Pittsburgh lost 3-2 when Tomas Hertl tipped in the winner with 32 seconds left. Malkin has six goals and five assists in 14 games, Crosby four goals and six assists, and Rickard Rakell five goals.
Silovs has started 11 games, gone 5-5-1 and posted an .876 save percentage with two shutouts: 7-0 in Philadelphia and 4-0 against Florida. Sergei Murashov is 0-4-1 with an .871 in five starts, so the drop-off between the two is small but real.
The Penguins allow 3.56 goals a game, 29th in the league, while shots for and against are level at 27.4. The penalty kill works at 82.5%, though the Vegas game turned on two power-play goals from Hertl.
Justin Brazeau gave them a small lift on Thursday. He scored his first goal of the season in his second game back from a training camp injury.
Probable lineup San Jose Sharks: Not announced at time of publication
Probable lineup Pittsburgh Penguins: Not announced at time of publication
Free NHL Prediction: San Jose Sharks vs Pittsburgh Penguins
Our prediction: Pittsburgh Penguins to win (overtime included)
San Jose has scored one goal or fewer in four of its last eight games, and it’s 1-6-0 over its last seven. The Sharks will also be on their third game in five nights, while Pittsburgh gets two days of rest after Anaheim. Against an attack scoring 2.44 a game, a Penguins team with Karlsson, Malkin and Crosby should find enough.
The case against is Pittsburgh’s road form, one win in eight. I’m not ignoring it, but those road defeats include trips to Colorado, Vegas and Washington, and the Sharks have lost at home to Ottawa, Calgary and Buffalo in the last three weeks.
No price was available at the time of writing, so check that the Penguins sit at 1.45 or above before backing them. If the market makes Pittsburgh a heavy favorite, I’d still stick with the side but not chase a short price.
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