Anaheim Ducks vs Nashville Predators – Free NHL Prediction – Nov 11

Anaheim Ducks vs Nashville Predators: seven straight five-goal nights meet a 90% penalty kill

Anaheim has scored at least five goals in seven consecutive games. No NHL team had done that since the 1991-92 Pittsburgh Penguins, and the latest one came on Friday night in Calgary, a 5-3 win that Cutter Gauthier settled by one-timing a Mikael Granlund pass with 1:34 left on the clock.

That run brings the Ducks to Wednesday 11 November at Honda Center, puck drop 10:00pm ET, against a Nashville team that wins the other way. The Predators allow 2.94 goals a game and kill 90.0% of their penalties, the third-best rate in the league going into the weekend.

Anaheim’s power play converts at 36.1%, second in the NHL, with 22 goals in 17 games. Gauthier has nine of his 12 goals on the man advantage, and Leo Carlsson tied Friday’s game 55 seconds into the third period after Matt Coronato was sent off for delay of game.

The schedule leans toward the home side. Nashville plays in Los Angeles at 10:00pm ET on Tuesday, so the trip down the freeway to Anaheim is the second night of a back-to-back. The Ducks host Pittsburgh on Sunday and then get two full days off before the Predators arrive.

What Anaheim can’t do is stop the puck. The team save percentage sits at .864, the Ducks give up 3.76 goals a game, and Lukas Dostal was pulled on Friday after allowing three goals on 11 shots in the first period. Ville Husso stopped all 10 shots he faced in relief.

Put those pieces together and the last seven Anaheim games average a little under ten goals each: 37 scored, 31 allowed. I don’t see a Nashville team on no rest dragging that pace down by much.

Anaheim Ducks: 7-3-0 on the road, 2-4-1 at Honda Center

The Ducks are 9-7-1 and third in the Pacific Division, and almost all of that record was built away from home. They’re 7-3-0 on the road and 2-4-1 at Honda Center, where their only wins have come against Florida in overtime in the first week of the season and Ottawa, 6-3, at the start of this month.

Three of the four wins in the current streak came on the road: 5-4 in Vancouver, 5-4 in Edmonton and 5-3 in Calgary. The home results in late October were the opposite story, a 6-5 overtime loss to Vancouver and a 7-6 loss to Buffalo two nights later.

Carlsson leads the team with 26 points, six goals and 20 assists. Beckett Sennecke has 10 goals and 11 assists and had two helpers on Friday. Gauthier has scored 10 of his 12 goals during a five-game goal streak, and Jackson LaCombe’s assist in Calgary stretched his point streak to nine games, the longest by a defenseman in franchise history.

None of the three goalies has a save percentage above .870. Dostal is 4-4-1 with an .866 in 10 starts, Husso is 2-3-0 with an .868, and Laurent Brossoit has won all three of his starts with an .849. Anaheim allows 26.9 shots a game, which is a normal workload, so the leak sits in the crease.

Troy Terry (hip) and Ian Moore (lower body) were on injured reserve with projected returns around Sunday’s game against Pittsburgh. A.J. Greer’s upper-body injury carries a return date of 11 November, while Ryan Poehling isn’t expected back before late November.

The Ducks also take a lot of penalties. They’ve piled up 232 penalty minutes in 17 games, more than double Nashville’s 114, and their penalty kill works at 73.5%.

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Nashville Predators: seven of 16 games past regulation and a back-to-back in Southern California

Nashville went into Saturday’s home game against St. Louis at 7-4-5 and fifth in the Central. Seven of its 16 games have gone past 60 minutes, and the Predators are 2-5 in those, which explains why five of their losses still came with a point attached.

They’d won three straight before facing the Blues: 5-4 in a shootout against Tampa Bay, 4-1 over Carolina and 3-2 in overtime in Denver on Thursday. Steven Stamkos won that one on a power play 2:18 into the extra period. It was his 247th power-play goal, which ties him with Luc Robitaille for fifth in NHL history.

Stamkos has nine goals, five of them on the power play. Filip Forsberg leads the team with 19 points, Ryan O’Reilly has seven goals and 10 assists, and Roman Josi has 16 assists from the blue line. Nashville’s power play runs at 29.6%, fifth in the league, so it has a way to answer Anaheim’s.

The goaltending split matters with games on consecutive nights. Juuse Saros has started 11 games with a .908 save percentage and a 2.77 goals-against average, and he made 29 saves in the 4-1 win over Carolina. Justus Annunen stopped 31 of 33 in Denver but sits at .874 over his four starts.

The Predators score 3.00 goals a game, 21st in the NHL, and they allow 29.2 shots a night while taking 25.8. Jonathan Marchessault was listed day to day with a lower-body injury going into the weekend.

The penalty kill has been the steadiest part of the team. Colorado went 0 for 3 against it on Thursday, and Nashville blocked 25 shots that night.

Probable lineup Anaheim Ducks: Not announced at time of publication
Probable lineup Nashville Predators: Not announced at time of publication

Free NHL Prediction: Anaheim Ducks vs Nashville Predators

Our prediction: Over 6.5 goals

Anaheim’s last seven games finished with 9, 11, 13, 9, 9, 9 and 8 goals. The Ducks score 3.76 a game and concede 3.76 a game, and their three goalies are all under .870. Nashville arrives on the second night of a back-to-back, and whichever goalie starts has to deal with a power play converting at 36.1%.

The case against is Nashville’s penalty kill at 90.0% and a Predators side that has played plenty of low-scoring, tight games: three of its last six went past regulation. I’d still back the Ducks’ run of form over that, because Anaheim’s own defense and goaltending keep giving opponents three or four goals a night, and Nashville has a top-five power play of its own to cash in on Anaheim’s 232 penalty minutes.

Lines weren’t posted at the time of writing, so check the price before playing it. Seven goals is the bar, and Anaheim’s games have cleared it seven times in a row.

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