- 1 Roma vs Genoa: De Rossi’s homecoming against a defence that’s barely been breached
- 2 Roma: unbeaten in 13 league games, but missing Malen and the midfield core
- 3 Genoa: one away goal in their last five trips and a coach with a point to prove
- 4 Free Serie A Prediction: Roma vs Genoa
- 5 About our free predictions
- 6 No commitment from us
- 7 Information changes
- 8 Your responsibility
- 9 Responsible gambling
- 10 Legal age
- 11 About visuals
Roma vs Genoa: De Rossi’s homecoming against a defence that’s barely been breached 
Three goals conceded in six Serie A games. That’s the number Genoa have to wrestle with on Saturday night at the Stadio Olimpico, kick-off 20:45 Paris time.
Roma come into this one carrying some scar tissue. They were on course for a memorable Champions League win over Real Madrid on Wednesday, then conceded three times in the last ten minutes and lost 4-3, with Antonio Rudiger scoring the decider against his old club. It leaves Gian Piero Gasperini’s side 25th in the Champions League table with a single point.
The league is a different story. Roma are third with 14 points, two behind joint leaders Inter and Lazio, and they’re still unbeaten after four wins and two draws.
The subplot is hard to miss. Daniele De Rossi made 616 appearances for Roma as a player, second only to Francesco Totti’s 786, and he managed the club between January and September 2024. On Saturday he walks out at the Olimpico as Genoa coach, fresh from his first league win of the season.
That win over Fiorentina bought De Rossi some breathing space. Is it enough to change the picture in Rome? History says no: Genoa have lost 33 of their last 40 league meetings in the capital, and their last top-flight away win against Roma came back in 1990.
Roma: unbeaten in 13 league games, but missing Malen and the midfield core 
Thirteen Serie A games without defeat, four clean sheets already this season and not a single league goal conceded in the first half. Those numbers tell you everything you need to know about how Gasperini has organised this side.
They also haven’t lost a league game at home in more than ten months. The Olimpico has become a hard place to visit.
The early-season form backs that up. Roma opened with four straight wins, putting four past Fiorentina at home and four more at Lecce, before beating Atalanta 2-1 and winning 2-0 in Turin. Draws against Inter (2-2) and Como (0-0) followed, and there’s no shame in either result given who they were against.
The problem is availability. Donyell Malen, the club’s top scorer with six league goals and two more against Madrid on Wednesday, is suspended after his red card at Como for a mistimed challenge. Santiago Castro is expected to lead the line in his place. Mile Svilar is also out, so Pier Luigi Gollini keeps the gloves, and the usual midfield pairing could be missing too: Bryan Cristante hasn’t recovered from the knee problem that ruled him out of Italy duty, and Manu Kone is a doubt with a thigh injury.
Paulo Dybala went off at half-time on Wednesday with a muscle strain, but he could recover in time. Even without him, this squad has enough to grind a result out. The bigger question is the mental side. Can they shake off that collapse against Madrid in three days? With a home game against Slovan Bratislava coming on Tuesday, Gasperini can ill afford a hangover.
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Genoa: one away goal in their last five trips and a coach with a point to prove 
Genoa’s record on the road doesn’t bear close inspection. Across their last five away games they’ve drawn two, lost three and scored just once. That’s the core issue heading into the Olimpico.
Their league position reflects it. Four points from six games has them 17th, and before last weekend they’d gone ten Serie A matches without a win, a run stretching back into last season. Defeats to Lazio (1-0), Como (4-1) and Parma (2-1) were sandwiched around a 1-1 draw with Frosinone.
Then came Fiorentina. Genoa struck twice inside the opening 15 minutes and hung on for a 2-1 win, the kind of result that settles a dressing room. Credit where it’s due: they defended that lead with real commitment.
Milutin Osmajic is the main threat. The Montenegrin has scored three goals in five Serie A appearances and should lead the attack again. Junior Messias also found the net last weekend, and he scored in Genoa’s 2-1 home win over Roma back in March, which is the most recent meeting between the sides.
The absences hurt, though. Lorenzo Colombo, Djibril Sow, Elias Havel, Ethan Meichtry and Lorenzo Venturino are all still sidelined, while Alex Amorim has returned to full training and could feature. That leaves De Rossi with a thin squad for a tough night. Not ideal.
Probable lineup Roma: Gollini; Mancini, Balerdi, Hermoso; Rensch, De Roon, Pisilli, Wesley; Soule, Mora; Castro
Probable lineup Genoa: Bijlow; Otoa, Ostigard, Vasquez; Ehizibue, Frendrup, Traore, Ellertsson; Messias, El Shaarawy; Osmajic
Free Serie A Prediction: Roma vs Genoa
Our prediction: Both teams to score – No (odds 1.85)
Roma are clear favourites here, but a straight home win is priced too short to be worth it. The better angle is the defensive one. Roma have conceded three league goals in six games and kept four clean sheets, and they haven’t let one in before half-time all season.
Genoa, for their part, have managed one goal across their last five away matches. Put those two numbers together and the case builds quickly for one side failing to find the net, and it’s far more likely to be the visitors.
Roma’s absences up front mean this might not be a rout, but that doesn’t matter for this pick. A Roma win to nil or a tight, low-scoring night both land it. We’re backing both teams not to score at 1.85.
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