- 1 Venezia vs Napoli: a new coach, a winless promoted side and a wounded favourite
- 2 Venezia: 16 goals conceded in six games and a squad running on empty
- 3 Napoli: bruised in Europe, steadier in Serie A with De Bruyne finding his range
- 4 Free Serie A Prediction: Venezia vs Napoli
- 5 About our free predictions
- 6 No commitment from us
- 7 Information changes
- 8 Your responsibility
- 9 Responsible gambling
- 10 Legal age
- 11 About visuals
Venezia vs Napoli: a new coach, a winless promoted side and a wounded favourite 
Six Serie A games, six defeats. That’s where Venezia stand heading into Saturday afternoon at the Penzo, kick-off 15:00 Paris time, and it’s the context that frames everything about this one.
Napoli don’t arrive in perfect shape either. Max Allegri’s side lost 3-1 in Villarreal on Tuesday after taking an early lead through Amir Rrahmani, which leaves them pointless after two Champions League matches. The mood around the club isn’t great. Their league form tells a calmer story, though: seven points from the last nine, including a 3-0 win over Frosinone before the trip to Spain.
The home side have just changed course. Giovanni Stroppa was sacked after last week’s 3-1 defeat at Atalanta, a game in which Venezia were three goals down inside half an hour. Davide Nicola, a coach who’s built a career on rescuing sides in trouble, has stepped in with barely any time on the training ground.
Here’s the thing about new-manager bounces: they usually need a few sessions to take hold. Nicola has had days, not weeks.
History doesn’t help Venezia either. They’ve won just two of their 16 Serie A meetings with Napoli, and the most recent of those came in 1942, a 4-1 win at this very ground. They’re also one of only two sides across Europe’s top ten leagues still waiting for a first point this season. So does Saturday change anything? The numbers suggest it’s a big ask.
Venezia: 16 goals conceded in six games and a squad running on empty 
The defensive record is where it starts and, frankly, where it mostly ends. Venezia have shipped 16 goals in six league games, the worst defence in Serie A, and they’ve let in two or more in every single one of those matches. Lecce, Milan and Lazio all left with clean sheets. Fiorentina scored four at the Penzo.
The attack hasn’t covered for it. Five goals in six games, and two of those came in a 3-2 defeat at Frosinone. Not enough.
Akor Adams was supposed to change that. The club-record signing arrived from Sevilla this summer and has one league goal to his name, while his usual strike partner Yeboah also sits on one. Nicola’s first job will be getting more out of that pairing, because the supply is there: wing-back Antoine Hainaut has three goal involvements this season, scored last weekend and has delivered more open-play crosses than anyone in Serie A.
The absence list makes for uncomfortable reading. Marin Sverko, Bartol Franjic and captain Gianluca Busio are out, as is Andrea Adorante, the striker who scored 17 times in Serie B last season. Armel Bella-Kotchap, Thierry Correia and Pasquale Mazzocchi, who’s on loan from Napoli, are all doubts as well.
That’s a lot of the spine missing. Juan Jesus and Toma Basic bring experience, but they can’t paper over a back line that’s been this porous. Venezia sit four points adrift at the bottom already, and they’re also out of the Coppa Italia after a 2-1 loss at Udinese. It won’t get easier from here.
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Napoli: bruised in Europe, steadier in Serie A with De Bruyne finding his range 
Champions in 2025 and runners-up to Inter last season, Napoli went into this campaign with a new coach after Antonio Conte’s summer departure. Allegri’s start has been bumpy. Back-to-back league defeats to Como (2-1) and Inter (3-2) left them playing catch-up, and they’re eighth now, six points off the top.
Since then, though, they’ve steadied. A 1-0 win over Bologna, a 1-1 draw in Florence and that 3-0 against Frosinone have stopped the slide. Ten points from six isn’t title form, but it’s a platform.
Kevin De Bruyne is the one to watch. He scored twice against Frosinone, has three league goals and an assist so far, and he’s been involved in seven goals across his last ten games for club and country. If he scores here, it’ll be the first time he’s found the net in consecutive league appearances since October 2022. With Rasmus Hojlund up front on two league goals, the attacking pieces are there.
The worry is the road. Napoli have lost seven of their last eight European away games, and that soft edge away from the Maradona is a fair criticism. Still, there’s a big difference between Villarreal on a Champions League night and a winless Venezia side.
The injury list is longer than Allegri would like. David Neres has joined Alessandro Buongiorno, Antonio Vergara and Costantino Favasuli on the sidelines after straining a muscle against Villarreal, while the status of Frank Anguissa, Mathias Olivera and Alisson Santos remains unclear going into the weekend. Scott McTominay made his first start in several weeks on Tuesday, which is good news for the midfield. Plenty of depth remains. Enough, certainly, for this.
Probable lineup Venezia: Stankovic; Moreno, Jesus, Schingtienne; Hainaut, Sohm, Basic, Perez, Sagrado; Yeboah, Adams
Probable lineup Napoli: Meret; Rrahmani, Marin, Badiashile; Di Lorenzo, Lobotka, McTominay, Spinazzola; De Bruyne, Lang; Hojlund
Free Serie A Prediction: Venezia vs Napoli
Our prediction: Napoli to win (odds 1.68)
Venezia have conceded at least twice in all six league games, and they’re doing it with a defence missing several first-choice names. Napoli don’t need to be brilliant to exploit that. They need De Bruyne and Hojlund to turn up, and both have been finding the net.
Napoli’s away form is a genuine concern, and we’re not ignoring it. But this isn’t a European trip to a well-drilled side: it’s a promoted team with no points, a coach who’s barely unpacked and a history of one win against this opponent in more than 80 years.
Nicola may well get Venezia organised in time. Not by Saturday, though. We’re backing Napoli to take the three points at 1.68.
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