- 1 Villarreal vs Elche: a European lift meets a leaky back line
- 2 Villarreal: the Napoli comeback has to become a turning point at home
- 3 Elche: 17 conceded in eight games and a new-look attack built around Fer Nino
- 4 Free La Liga Prediction: Villarreal vs Elche
- 5 About our free predictions
- 6 No commitment from us
- 7 Information changes
- 8 Your responsibility
- 9 Responsible gambling
- 10 Legal age
- 11 About visuals
Villarreal vs Elche: a European lift meets a leaky back line 
Villarreal needed a night like Tuesday. Down a goal at home to Napoli, they came back to win 3-1, their first Champions League victory after failing to win a single game in last season’s competition. The timing couldn’t have been better.
Now they’ve got to carry it into La Liga, where things have been messier. Inigo Perez’s side are 11th on eight points after two wins, two draws and four defeats, and they were beaten 1-0 at Real Madrid last weekend. A season that started shakily still needs settling.
Elche are the visitors at the Estadio de la Ceramica on Saturday, kick-off 16:15 Paris time. They’re 18th with six points, inside the relegation zone, and they’ve conceded 17 goals in eight league games.
That last number is the one that jumps off the page. More than two a game. It’s hard to stay up conceding at that rate, and it’s even harder to get anything out of trips to sides with Villarreal’s attacking quality.
The recent history points the same way. Villarreal won both league meetings last season, including a 2-1 win in this fixture in March, and Elche haven’t won away at Villarreal since May 2013. With Liverpool waiting at Anfield next week, Perez has every reason to want this one wrapped up early.
Villarreal: the Napoli comeback has to become a turning point at home 
Eight points from eight games isn’t where this squad should be. Early defeats to Alaves (1-0), Deportivo La Coruna (3-2) and Real Betis (2-1) put them on the back foot, and two of those came at home. That takes some explaining for a side with Champions League football.
The response has been better, though. Before the international break they beat Malaga 3-1 away and Levante 3-1 at home, and they also drew 2-2 with Atletico Madrid earlier in the season despite being down to ten men. The defeat at the Bernabeu was by a single goal. There’s a decent side in there.
The goals are spread around. Pape Gueye is the top league scorer with three, which tells you plenty about how much this team gets from midfield. Alberto Moleiro has two goals and three assists, and Georges Mikautadze has two goals and an assist in La Liga. Against Napoli, the scorers were Mourino, Mikautadze and Oluwaseyi.
Fragments of form, sure. But the attacking spread is real.
Team news is mostly positive. Tajon Buchanan is out after picking up an injury with Canada, and Nicolas Pepe’s availability is uncertain. Peter Gulacsi, who missed Tuesday’s game for personal reasons, is expected back in goal. Some rotation is likely after the midweek effort, with Juan Foyth and Alex Freeman in line to come into the defence and Ayoze Perez possibly partnering Mikautadze up front.
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Elche: 17 conceded in eight games and a new-look attack built around Fer Nino 
Look at Elche’s results and a pattern emerges fast. Racing Santander 3-2, Real Sociedad 3-2, Real Madrid 3-2, Barcelona 5-0. They’ve lost four league games and conceded at least three in every one of them.
That’s the problem in a nutshell. They can score, but they can’t stop opponents doing the same.
Martin Anselmi’s side survived by a single point last season, finishing 15th, and this campaign already looks like another fight at the bottom. Their only league win came at Espanyol, a 3-1 victory before the break. Since then it’s been a 1-1 draw at Athletic Bilbao and a goalless draw with Celta Vigo last weekend, so they’ve lost just one of their last four league games. Credit where it’s due: that’s a small step forward.
The attack has been rebuilt from scratch. Andre Silva, Rafa Mir and Alvaro Rodriguez all left in the summer, and Fer Nino, signed from Burgos, has stepped into the gap with five goals in eight appearances. That’s an impressive return for a player new to this level. Thomas Lemar, meanwhile, has now started two games in a row and adds craft behind him.
Federico Redondo is back from suspension, which helps the midfield. Buba Sangare is carrying a knock, though, and Elche can ill afford to lose more defenders given how often they’ve been opened up. Can they keep it tight for 90 minutes away from home? Nothing in their season so far suggests they can.
Probable lineup Villarreal: Gulacsi; Freeman, Foyth, Veiga, Cardona; Akhomach, Gueye, Saliba, Moleiro; Mikautadze, Perez
Probable lineup Elche: Dituro; Sangare, Chust, Morcillo, Revivo; Villar, Aguado; Cepeda, Lemar, Valera; Nino
Free La Liga Prediction: Villarreal vs Elche
Our prediction: Villarreal to win (odds 1.45)
Elche have conceded three or more in all four of their league defeats, and they haven’t won at Villarreal in more than 13 years. Villarreal have scored three in each of their last two league wins and three more against Napoli on Tuesday. The goals should come.
The main risk is fatigue and rotation after a big European night, with Liverpool to come next week. But Villarreal’s squad is deep enough to change a few faces without losing much quality, and they’ve been strong at turning chances into goals against weaker sides.
Elche will probably score, as Fer Nino keeps finding the net. That’s fine. We expect Villarreal to outscore them and take the three points at 1.45.
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