- 1 Penrith Panthers vs Sydney Roosters: top meets fourth, with a semi-final spot on the line
- 2 Penrith Panthers: minor premiers and a captain back at the heart of it
- 3 Sydney Roosters: nine rested regulars are back at once
- 4 NRL Prediction Penrith Panthers vs Sydney Roosters
- 5 First, a word on our free picks
- 6 No commitment from us
- 7 Information changes fast
- 8 Your role
- 9 Responsible gambling first
- 10 Legal age
- 11 About the images…
Penrith Panthers vs Sydney Roosters: top meets fourth, with a semi-final spot on the line 
Penrith clinched the minor premiership on the final day of round 27. The Roosters were still in the hunt until a shock loss to the Wests Tigers.
This qualifying final takes place on Sunday 13 September at CommBank Stadium in Sydney, with kick-off at 16:05 local Australian time.
The format leaves no room for soft landings. Win here and you go straight into the semi-finals with a week off. Lose, and you’re straight into sudden death in week two.
The numbers tell their own story. Penrith have won 12 of their last 14 meetings with the Roosters.
In finals, the gap gets even wider: Sydney have not beaten the Panthers in this setting since 2010.
A much-hyped halfback duel won’t happen, with Sam Walker’s injury ruling out a showdown with Nathan Cleary.
Penrith Panthers: minor premiers and a captain back at the heart of it 
Penrith head into this qualifying final as the top side from the regular season, a status sealed in the closing round.
That gives them home advantage and, if they get the job done, a precious week to recover in the middle of a brutal finals month.
Isaah Yeo is back in the starting XIII for only his second game since a pectoral injury, and that reshapes the pack.
The captain returns to lock, Lindsay Smith moves to prop and Liam Henry drops back to the bench.
Scott Sorensen also comes back onto the bench after being rested, at the end of a season in which he had played every game.
Luron Patea is the man to make way as Penrith trim down from a six-man interchange last week.
Out wide, the numbers do the talking: Thomas Jenkins has scored 12 tries in his last 11 games at CommBank Stadium.
Brian To’o, meanwhile, has 17 tries in 18 finals appearances. That is elite production at this level.
Nathan Cleary still holds the keys with the boot and in field position, the weapon that has underpinned most of Penrith’s wins in this rivalry.
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Sydney Roosters: nine rested regulars are back at once 
The Roosters finish fourth after letting the minor premiership slip in the run-in.
The loss to the Wests Tigers cost them a place that had looked well within reach only a few rounds earlier.
Still, the squad is close to full strength. James Tedesco, Billy Smith, Rob Toia, Mark Nawaqanitawase, Naufahu Whyte, Reece Robson, Lindsay Collins and Siua Wong all return to the starting side after being rested in the final round.
Angus Crichton is back on the bench after missing 11 games with a foot injury, while Victor Radley returns from concussion.
The halves have been completely reshuffled: Daly Cherry-Evans takes the No. 7 and links up with Hugo Savala at five-eighth.
That move comes straight from Sam Walker’s season-ending injury.
Cherry-Evans brings the one thing this new setup really needs: finals experience.
The worry sits elsewhere. The Roosters have won only one of their last five finals.
Spencer Leniu, Nat Butcher and Connor Watson complete a bench built to match Penrith’s tempo in the middle.
Probable Penrith Panthers team: Edwards; Jenkins, Garner, McLean, To’o; Cole, Cleary; Leota, Kenny, Smith, Papali’i, Martin, Yeo. Interchange: Lussick, Sorensen, Henry, Phillips.
Probable Sydney Roosters team: Tedesco; Tupou, Smith, Toia, Nawaqanitawase; Savala, Cherry-Evans; Whyte, Robson, Collins, Foketi, Wong, Radley. Interchange: Watson, Leniu, Butcher, Crichton.
NRL Prediction Penrith Panthers vs Sydney Roosters
Our pick: Penrith Panthers -10.5 points
Penrith are priced at 1.28, which is too short to touch for a straight result bet.
The handicap opens things up and leans on a strong body of evidence: 12 wins in the last 14 meetings, and no finals loss to the Roosters since 2010.
Cleary’s control of territory over 80 minutes, up against a defence that is only just getting back into gear after a week off, usually ends the same way: Penrith pulling clear.
The -10.5 line on Penrith is the play here.
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