- 1 Cronulla Sharks vs North Queensland Cowboys: two slipping sides meet in a knockout tie
- 2 Cronulla Sharks: fifth place that hides a bad finish to the season
- 3 North Queensland Cowboys: a stop-start season and some key men back in the mix
- 4 NRL prediction Cronulla Sharks vs North Queensland Cowboys
- 5 First, a word on our free picks
- 6 No commitment from us
- 7 Information that changes
- 8 Your role
- 9 Responsible gambling first
- 10 Legal age
- 11 About the visuals…
Cronulla Sharks vs North Queensland Cowboys: two slipping sides meet in a knockout tie 
The Sharks have lost four of their last five games. The Cowboys come in off a 50-30 beating in Canberra.
Those two rough patches collide on Saturday 12 September at Allianz Stadium in Sydney, with kick-off set for 19:50 local time in Australia.
There is no room for error here: it is straight knockout football, and the loser goes home that night.
Cronulla Sharks finished the regular season in fifth, with North Queensland in eighth, the last spot in the finals field.
The head-to-head record is heavily one-sided: the Sharks have won 14 of the last 17 meetings with the Cowboys.
But Cronulla’s finals record tells a very different story, and that is why this one is about more than the league table.
Cronulla Sharks: fifth place that hides a bad finish to the season 
Four defeats in the last five rounds: Cronulla Sharks head into the finals with the weakest recent run in the top eight.
That collapse cost the Sharks the top-four safety net and dumps them straight into a sudden-death game.
Their only win in that spell, against the Titans in round 25, needed a comeback from 16-8 down at half-time.
The last round summed up the month just gone: Melbourne snatched victory in the dying seconds with a stunning try.
The historical backdrop makes it worse. Since their 2016 title, the Sharks have won just four of their last 15 finals matches.
The return of Braydon Trindall, back after missing two games with a shoulder injury, gives the halves their usual look alongside Nicho Hynes.
Blayke Brailey, KL Iro and Teig Wilton also go straight back into the starting side after being rested in the final round.
Tom Hazelton is back on the bench after serving a one-match ban for dangerous contact, with Billy Burns, Toby Rudolf and Hohepa Puru also included.
Winger Sione Katoa arrives on 99 NRL tries: one more and he reaches 100.
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North Queensland Cowboys: a stop-start season and some key men back in the mix 
North Queensland finish the regular season with the most erratic record of the eight finalists.
This is the same side that beat Penrith on Jason Taumalolo’s milestone night and also took an 82-12 hiding against the Roosters.
The final round only confirmed the fragility: Canberra, with nothing on the line, won 50-30 in Townsville.
Three returns do change the look of the pack, though. Griffin Neame (toe), Jeremiah Nanai (knee) and Zac Laybutt (concussion) are all in for this do-or-die clash.
Those inclusions allow Coen Hess and John Bateman to drop to the bench, giving the Cowboys a far heavier rotation than they had at the end of the season.
One uncertainty remains in the leadership department: Reuben Cotter is listed subject to his disciplinary hearing, where he has pleaded not guilty to a high tackle.
Kai O’Donnell and Sam McIntyre move into the reserves, while Robert Derby drops out of the group.
Winger Braidon Burns will play his 100th NRL match in this sudden-death setting.
And on finals form, North Queensland have a real card to play: two wins from their last three finals matches in Sydney against Cronulla.
Probable Cronulla Sharks line-up: Kennedy ; Katoa, Jones, Iro, Mulitalo ; Trindall, Hynes ; Fonua-Blake, Brailey, Colquhoun, Nikora, Wilton, McInnes. Subs : Talakai, Burns, Kaufusi, Hazelton.
Probable North Queensland Cowboys line-up: Drinkwater ; Burns, Purdue, Chester, Laybutt ; Clifford, Dearden ; Neame, Mahoney, Taumalolo, Luki, Nanai, Cotter. Subs : Luke, Bateman, Mikaele, Hess.
NRL prediction Cronulla Sharks vs North Queensland Cowboys
Our prediction: North Queensland Cowboys +12.5 points handicap
Cronulla are favourites with Australian bookmakers at 1.44, a price that does not exactly scream value given four defeats in five.
The Sharks’ finals record, with only four wins in their last 15, matters more in this format than their edge in the head-to-head.
North Queensland get Neame, Nanai and Laybutt back at the same time, and they have already shown this season that they can beat Cronulla.
The +12.5 points handicap on the Cowboys is the play here.
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