- 1 Norwich City vs Watford: 20th against 21st, and a visiting side with one away point
- 2 Norwich City: 20 goals scored, three home defeats in a row and no Toure
- 3 Watford: one point and two goals from six away league games
- 4 Free Football Prediction: Norwich City vs Watford
- 5 About our free predictions
- 6 No commitment from us
- 7 Information changes
- 8 Your responsibility
- 9 Responsible gambling
- 10 Legal age
- 11 About visuals
Norwich City vs Watford: 20th against 21st, and a visiting side with one away point 
Norwich won 3-1 at Charlton on Saturday and ended a run of five straight Championship defeats. Every one of those five had been lost by a single goal, two of them 4-3, so Philippe Clement’s side were rarely far away even while the points dried up.
The reward is a home game against the only side directly below them. Norwich are 20th with 12 points from 12 games, Watford 21st with 11, and the match at Carrow Road kicks off at 12:30pm UK time on Saturday 31 October.
Clement has been under pressure through the losing run, and Alessio Dionisi is reported to be fighting for his job at Watford after a 1-0 defeat at Wolves last weekend.
The two clubs have reached the bottom five by different routes. Norwich have scored 20 league goals, the joint-fourth best total in the division, and conceded 22. Watford have scored ten, the joint-lowest in the Championship, and conceded 20.
Norwich also haven’t drawn a league game all season. Four wins, eight defeats, no draws, which fits a side that scores and concedes in most of its matches.
Bookmakers make Norwich 1.53 to win, with Watford at 5.25 and the draw at 4.00. The goal markets lean the same way, with over 2.5 goals at 1.57 and both teams to score at 1.62, and I’m with the home side on the result.
Norwich City: 20 goals scored, three home defeats in a row and no Toure 
The losing run read 4-3 at Middlesbrough, 4-3 at home to Bolton, 2-1 at Swansea, then 1-0 at home to Southampton and 1-0 at home to Portsmouth. Those last three home defeats are the part of the season Clement has to fix.
Even during the bad run, Carrow Road has produced goals. Norwich have won two and lost four of their six home league games, scoring ten and conceding ten, and they’ve scored first in six of their 12 league matches overall.
Mathias Kvistgaarden leads the league scoring with three, with Jacob Wright and Brooks on two each. Mohamed Toure, their top scorer, is still sidelined, as is Vladan Kovacevic.
Paris Maghoma picked up an injury at Charlton, so Jovon Makama is in line to come into the attacking midfield line behind Kvistgaarden. Clement isn’t expected to make other changes to the side that won at The Valley.
That leaves a familiar shape: Kvistgaarden alone up front, Brooks, Schwartau and Makama behind him, and Wright and Mattsson sitting in front of a back four of Stacey, Darling, McConville and Chrisene. Stacey has a league goal from right-back this season, and both full-backs are expected to push on against a side that will sit deep.
The back line is where Norwich are exposed. They haven’t kept a clean sheet in the league all season, and their expected goals against of 1.6 a game is higher than the 1.4 they create.
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Watford: one point and two goals from six away league games 
Watford’s away record is the worst thing about their season. Six league trips have brought one point and two goals, and they’ve conceded 11 on the road, five of them in a 5-1 defeat at Cardiff on 13 October.
Their last six league games: 2-1 at home to Stoke, 1-0 at Bristol City, 4-0 at home to Burnley, the Cardiff defeat, a 2-0 home win over Charlton and the 1-0 loss at Molineux, which adds up to one win in six.
Dionisi’s side create little going forward, with expected goals over the last ten matches averaging 1.1 a game against 1.9 conceded, and they’ve failed to score in five of their 12 league matches.
Lasse Kjerrumgaard is the top league scorer with two. Rocco Vata, Othmane Maamma and Mamadou Doumbia are all options to return to the attack, while Jeremy Ngakia is unlikely to be fit and Edoardo Bove and Kwadwo Baah remain out.
Dionisi is expected to stay with a back five of Diatta, Mlacic, Pollock, Keben and Bola in front of Ravaglia, with Kayembe and Bravo in front of them. The shape kept Wolves to one goal last weekend, but it hasn’t produced goals at the other end.
Recent history at Carrow Road is closer than the current form of the two sides would suggest. Since 1998, Norwich have won eight of the 18 league meetings there, Watford nine, with one draw.
Probable lineup Norwich City: Grimshaw; Stacey, Darling, McConville, Chrisene; Wright, Mattsson; Brooks, Schwartau, Makama; Kvistgaarden
Probable lineup Watford: Ravaglia; Diatta, Mlacic, Pollock, Keben, Bola; Kayembe, Bravo; Vata, Maamma; Doumbia
Free Football Prediction: Norwich City vs Watford
Our prediction: Norwich City to win (odds 1.53)
I’d back Norwich at 1.53. They have twice as many league goals as Watford, and Watford have taken one point from six away games while scoring twice.
The three straight home defeats are the case against, and Watford’s five-man defence will make this hard work for a while. Norwich lost those home games by one goal each, though, and Watford have scored ten league goals all season, half the Norwich total.
Norwich haven’t drawn all season and Watford can barely score away from Vicarage Road. A 2-0 or 2-1 home win is the result I expect, with Kvistgaarden the likeliest scorer and Watford’s two away goals all season the number that keeps me away from the draw.
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