- 1 New York Jets vs Las Vegas Raiders: 143 points allowed in four Raiders losses, and Geno Smith against his old team
- 2 New York Jets: Smith’s 70.1% completion rate, and one interception on defense all season
- 3 Las Vegas Raiders: 16 touchdown passes from Cousins, and a defense allowing touchdowns on 78.6% of red-zone trips
- 4 Free NFL Prediction: New York Jets vs Las Vegas Raiders
- 5 About our free predictions
- 6 No commitment from us
- 7 Information changes
- 8 Your responsibility
- 9 Responsible gambling
- 10 Legal age
- 11 About visuals
New York Jets vs Las Vegas Raiders: 143 points allowed in four Raiders losses, and Geno Smith against his old team 
Las Vegas has allowed 30, 45, 33 and 35 points in its last four games, all of them defeats. That’s 143 points in a month from a team that started the season 3-0 and now sits third in the AFC West at 3-4.
The Raiders go to MetLife Stadium on Sunday 1 November, kickoff 1:00pm ET on FOX, to face a Jets team that is 2-5 and has lost five of its last six. New York is a 1.5-point favorite, the moneyline is close to even (1.89 for the Jets, 1.93 for Las Vegas), and the total is 44.5.
The Jets’ latest defeat was the worst of the lot. They lost 28-25 at home to Miami as 4.5-point favorites, handing the Dolphins their first win of the season, and Miami put together touchdown drives of 14 and 15 plays.
Geno Smith played for the Raiders last season and now has a 105.2 passer rating for New York, with 10 touchdowns and two interceptions. Kirk Cousins, 38, leads the league with 16 touchdown passes while No. 1 overall pick Fernando Mendoza waits behind him.
Two offenses that can move the ball, two defenses that have been giving up points in bunches: I don’t have a strong view on which side wins, but I have a clear one on how many points get scored.
New York Jets: Smith’s 70.1% completion rate, and one interception on defense all season 
Smith went 23 of 30 for 287 yards, three touchdowns and one interception against Miami. By EPA it was the Jets’ best offensive day of the season, and they still lost, because the defense couldn’t get off the field.
Braelon Allen carried the ground game with 104 yards on 17 carries, plus six catches for 30 yards, and he has 357 rushing yards since becoming the starter in Week 4. Omar Cooper Jr. had 115 receiving yards and a touchdown, and tight end Mason Taylor scored twice. Garrett Wilson, with 444 yards on the season, caught only two balls.
Breece Hall missed that game with a quad injury and is questionable again. His return would give New York more of a running game, though the Jets rank 27th in rushing EPA and average 3.8 yards a carry.
The defensive numbers are the reason the total looks low to me. The Jets have one interception all season, the fewest in the NFL, and they allow touchdowns on 56.0% of red-zone trips. Aaron Glenn, 5-19 as Jets head coach, calls the defense himself.
New York does get after the quarterback, with 19 sacks and an 8.2% sack rate. Against Cousins, whose line allows a 3.6% sack rate, that pass rush is the one area where the Jets have a clear edge. Dylan Parham, Max Mitchell, Joseph Ossai and Kene Nwangwu are all questionable.
no renewal
Free for 2 weeks.
Las Vegas Raiders: 16 touchdown passes from Cousins, and a defense allowing touchdowns on 78.6% of red-zone trips 
Cousins has 1,877 passing yards, 16 touchdowns and five interceptions through seven games, and the Raiders’ passing game ranks ninth in EPA per dropback. Las Vegas averages 269.0 passing yards a game, against a Jets defense that allows 187.7.
The loss to the Rams showed both sides of this team. Cousins threw for 295 yards and two touchdowns, but the Raiders fell behind early, ran for 49 yards and went 1 for 5 in the red zone. Ashton Jeanty caught eight passes for 61 yards and a score, while averaging 3.1 yards a carry on the ground.
Tre Tucker is the receiver in form, with 200 yards and three touchdowns over the last two games and 474 on the season. Jack Bech has been designated to return from injured reserve after a broken forearm but hasn’t been activated, and Klint Kubiak has ruled out any quarterback change: “There is no controversy there.”
The Las Vegas defense has allowed 0.256 expected points per play over the last three weeks, opponents have scored touchdowns on 78.6% of red-zone trips, and the pass defense ranks 25th. The Raiders allow 5.9 yards per play and 5.0 yards per carry.
The Raiders are 5-2 against the spread and the Over is 5-2 in their games. They score 26.1 points a game, and they’re making a 2,228-mile trip across three time zones for a 1:00pm ET kickoff.
Probable lineup New York Jets: QB Geno Smith, RB Braelon Allen, WR Garrett Wilson, WR Omar Cooper Jr., TE Mason Taylor (Breece Hall questionable)
Probable lineup Las Vegas Raiders: QB Kirk Cousins, RB Ashton Jeanty, WR Tre Tucker (official inactives not announced at time of publication)
Free NFL Prediction: New York Jets vs Las Vegas Raiders
Our prediction: Over 44.5 points (1.87)
I’d play the Over. The Raiders have conceded at least 30 in four straight games, the Jets just gave up 28 to a team that hadn’t won all season, and both quarterbacks are throwing touchdowns at a high rate: 16 for Cousins, 10 for Smith with only two picks.
The red-zone numbers point the same way: Las Vegas lets opponents score touchdowns on 78.6% of trips, the Jets on 56.0%, and the Raiders’ passing attack faces a defense with one interception in seven games. Field goals are what kill an Over, and neither defense has been good at forcing them.
A healthy Breece Hall could slow the game down, and Las Vegas has stalled in the red zone before, as the 1-for-5 day against the Rams showed. The forecast at MetLife is mid-60s and dry, and I still expect both teams to clear 20, which is enough to get over 44.5.
in your pocket.
Real-time notifications & alerts
_________
About our free predictions
- What we publish on MathOdds are analyses, nothing more. We share a view, a reading of the moment, but never a guarantee. Sport remains what it is: unpredictable. A red card, an injury, a last-minute goal, and the script changes completely.
- Let’s be clear: there is no such thing as a risk-free bet. Even when it looks “obvious”, nothing ever is. And yes, that means you can lose. It’s even inevitable at some point.
- The smartest approach is to stay reasonable. Bet small, set a budget and stick to it. Never use money you need to live on. And above all: don’t chase your losses: that rarely ends well.
- A bet should remain a game, not a job or a source of income. If it starts taking up too much space in your daily life, causes stress or frustration, take a break. And if needed, talk to a support organisation: that’s what they’re there for.
- Ultimately, responsibility lies with you. Reading our content means accepting that risk exists and will never disappear, no matter how good the analysis.
- Essential reminder: gambling is prohibited for minors and must comply with the laws of your country. Need help? Visit begambleaware.org.
No commitment from us
Our predictions carry no contractual value. They have no legal standing. In short: you cannot rely on them to claim anything if a bet doesn’t come through.
Information changes
A prediction is always based on what we know at the time of writing. But between publication and kick-off, a lineup can change, a player picks up an injury, the weather turns, and the analysis can quickly be outdated. We cannot be held responsible for that.
Your responsibility
Before placing a bet, simply check that gambling is legal in your country. If it isn’t, that’s your responsibility, not ours.
Responsible gambling
We can’t say it enough: gamble responsibly. If you’re struggling to stay in control, don’t wait to seek help.
Legal age
MathOdds content is intended for adults only. By browsing here, you confirm you meet the legal age requirement for gambling in your jurisdiction.
About visuals
The images and logos of New York Jets and Las Vegas Raiders on MathOdds are used solely to illustrate our articles. They do not imply any official affiliation with a federation or sports organisation, and we claim no rights over them. Those rights belong to their original owners. If any visual raises a concern, contact us and it will be removed without delay.
Leave a Reply