- 1 Cincinnati Bengals vs Tennessee Titans: Burrow’s four-touchdown day in Baltimore, and a 1-6 team scoring 15.4
- 2 Cincinnati Bengals: first in third-down conversions, fourth in scoring, sixth in EPA per play
- 3 Tennessee Titans: Tony Pollard’s three touchdowns, and a quarterback with more interceptions than touchdown passes
- 4 Free NFL Prediction: Cincinnati Bengals vs Tennessee Titans
- 5 About our free predictions
- 6 No commitment from us
- 7 Information changes
- 8 Your responsibility
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- 10 Legal age
- 11 About visuals
Cincinnati Bengals vs Tennessee Titans: Burrow’s four-touchdown day in Baltimore, and a 1-6 team scoring 15.4 
Joe Burrow completed 22 of 30 passes for 292 yards and four touchdowns in Baltimore last Sunday, and Cincinnati won 35-13 in its first game back from the bye. Tee Higgins caught six of those passes for 148 yards.
The Bengals are 4-2 and host Tennessee at Paycor Stadium on Sunday 1 November, kickoff 1:00pm ET on CBS. They’re 10-point favorites, priced at 1.16 on the moneyline against 5.55 for the Titans, and the total sits at 46.5.
Tennessee is 1-6 and scores 15.4 points a game, 31st in the NFL. Its last outing was a 27-24 defeat to Cleveland in which the defense gave up 491 yards, 183 of them on the ground.
Double-digit spreads make me nervous as a rule, but this series has a clear trend: Cincinnati is 8-2 against the spread in the last 10 meetings, and the Under is 7-3 over the same stretch.
Burrow has 15 touchdown passes and three interceptions, and he’s completing 71.7% of his throws. Cam Ward, on the other side, has four touchdowns and five interceptions. That gap at quarterback is the main reason I’m comfortable with the big number here.
Cincinnati Bengals: first in third-down conversions, fourth in scoring, sixth in EPA per play 
Cincinnati converts about 51% of its third downs, the best rate in the league, and scores 27.2 points a game, fourth-most. By EPA per play the Bengals rank sixth, and by success rate they’re fifth. Burrow is fourth in the MVP market at 5.50, behind Josh Allen and Brock Purdy, and Cincinnati is rated as having the easiest remaining schedule in the league.
The win in Baltimore came on only 50 plays. The Bengals gained 357 yards at 7.1 yards per play, and Burrow’s 9.7 yards per attempt carried an offense that ran 20 times for 73 yards. Chase Brown had 39 of those on 11 carries.
The ground game is the weak part of this attack, at 81.2 rushing yards a game. Against Tennessee that may not matter much, because the Titans allow 233.0 passing yards a game and 364.1 total yards, 26th in the league.
The defense is better than its pass numbers suggest. Cincinnati allows 20.3 points a game, eighth-fewest, and has nine takeaways. It held Baltimore to 83 rushing yards on 27 carries, 3.1 a carry, which is the kind of front that can contain Tennessee’s run-first plan. The Over is 4-2 in Bengals games this season, and most of that comes from their own offense rather than from their defense.
Safety Kyle Dugger is out, and tight end Tanner Hudson, linebacker Swayze Bozeman and cornerback Jalen Davis are on injured reserve. None of those absences touch the Burrow-to-Higgins connection that drove last week’s result.
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Tennessee Titans: Tony Pollard’s three touchdowns, and a quarterback with more interceptions than touchdown passes 
Tony Pollard ran for 129 yards and three touchdowns against Cleveland last week, on 25 carries. Tennessee still lost by three, and it still finished with only 322 yards on 61 plays.
Ward went 20 of 31 for 181 yards with an interception against the Browns, a 66.7 passer rating. Carnell Tate led the receivers with five catches for 69 yards. For the season the Titans have four passing touchdowns and ten turnovers, five interceptions and five fumbles.
The run game that carried them last week averages 91.1 yards a game, 26th in the NFL. Without Pollard breaking off big days, Tennessee converts 35.4% of its third downs and has very little margin for error.
The defense was run over by Cleveland: 183 rushing yards on 29 carries and 308 passing yards allowed. Tennessee has given up nine rushing touchdowns this season and 131.1 rushing yards a game. It allows 22.3 points a game, which is 15th, but that number flatters a unit that ranks 26th in yards.
Calvin Ridley and Tyjae Spears are questionable, and so is punter Tommy Townsend. Linebacker Dorian Mausi and guard Jackson Slater are on injured reserve. Tennessee is 3-4 against the spread this season, so it has covered a few, but it hasn’t faced an offense this efficient on third down.
Probable lineup Cincinnati Bengals: QB Joe Burrow, RB Chase Brown, WR Tee Higgins (official inactives not announced at time of publication)
Probable lineup Tennessee Titans: QB Cam Ward, RB Tony Pollard, WR Carnell Tate (official inactives not announced at time of publication)
Free NFL Prediction: Cincinnati Bengals vs Tennessee Titans
Our prediction: Cincinnati Bengals -10 (1.89)
I’m laying the 10 points. Cincinnati scores 11.8 more points a game than Tennessee, converts third downs at a rate the Titans have no answer for, and has covered eight of the last 10 meetings in this series.
The Titans’ best hope is a ground game that shortens the clock and keeps the score in the 20s, which is how the Under went 7-3 in recent meetings. That’s a real risk to a big spread, although Cincinnati’s red-zone defense ranks among the league’s best at keeping drives from ending in touchdowns. I just don’t see Ward, with five interceptions in seven games, keeping pace once Cincinnati gets two scores ahead.
Burrow is coming off a 143.3-rated game against a better defense than this one. Tennessee allows 364.1 yards a game, and I expect Cincinnati to be comfortably clear by the fourth quarter.
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