- 1 Casa Pia vs Sporting CP: Suarez on a ten-game scoring run against the league’s worst home side
- 2 Casa Pia: one goal and 13 conceded in four home games at Rio Maior
- 3 Sporting CP: a first league defeat, eleven changes in midweek and no Debast
- 4 Free Football Prediction: Casa Pia vs Sporting CP
- 5 About our free predictions
- 6 No commitment from us
- 7 Information changes
- 8 Your responsibility
- 9 Responsible gambling
- 10 Legal age
- 11 About visuals
Casa Pia vs Sporting CP: Suarez on a ten-game scoring run against the league’s worst home side 
Luis Suarez has scored in each of his last ten appearances for Sporting, and he has eight Primeira Liga goals this season. His equaliser against Academico de Viseu on Saturday didn’t save Sporting from a 2-1 home defeat, their first league loss of the campaign.
Next for Rui Borges’ side is a Friday night trip to Casa Pia, kick-off 8:15pm UK time on 30 October. The game is at the Estadio Municipal de Rio Maior, Casa Pia’s temporary home this season.
Casa Pia have lost all four of their league games there, scoring once and conceding 13, which makes them the worst home side in the division.
Sporting are third with five wins, three draws and one defeat, 21 goals scored and 11 conceded, nine points behind leaders Porto and four behind Benfica. Casa Pia are 16th, in the relegation play-off spot, with seven points and a goal difference of minus 12.
Sporting have won all nine competitive meetings in the recent record, including an 8-0 at Alvalade in January 2024 and a 3-0 there in January this year, and they’ve scored at least twice in each of their last six visits to Casa Pia.
A Sporting win is priced at 1.28, too short to back alone. I’d take Sporting to win with under 3.5 goals at 2.11.
Casa Pia: one goal and 13 conceded in four home games at Rio Maior 
Filipe Coelho’s side have been a different team on the road. Their two league wins both came away, 2-1 at Estoril in September and 2-0 at Estrela Amadora last Saturday, when Joao Rego and Lawrence Ofori scored.
At home it’s been four defeats: 7-0 to Benfica in August, 1-0 to Moreirense, 4-1 to Porto and 1-0 to Santa Clara on 10 October. Over their last ten matches they’ve failed to score in six, including three of the four at home.
The overall league record is two wins, one draw and six defeats, with five goals scored in nine matches and 17 conceded. Away from home they’ve won two, drawn one and lost two, the draw a 0-0 at Vitoria de Guimaraes in September.
Goalkeeper Andre Gomes is out with an adductor injury, so Mandic is expected to start. Seba Perez picked up a knock against Estrela but should be fit.
Jeremy Livolant returned as a second-half substitute last weekend and may get more minutes, while Henrique Araujo could come back in to lead the attack after Cassiano started at Estrela.
Casa Pia also beat FC Alpendorada 1-0 away on 18 October to reach the fourth round of the Taca de Portugal. That makes three wins from their last four away games in all competitions, against none in four at Rio Maior.
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Sporting CP: a first league defeat, eleven changes in midweek and no Debast 
Sporting have lost two of their last three home games. LASK beat them 3-2 at Alvalade in the Champions League, and Viseu won 2-1 there in the league on Saturday, with Joao Guilherme scoring twice.
Away from Lisbon the league record is different. They’re unbeaten in four away games, alternating wins and draws, and the most recent was a 3-1 win at Braga on 9 October. They also won 2-0 at Lens in the Champions League four days later.
Borges made 11 changes for the Taca da Liga quarter-final against Maritimo in midweek, and Sporting still won 2-1 through a Pedro Lima brace. Most of the first-choice side should return on Friday.
Zeno Debast (leg muscle), Rodrigo Zalazar (thigh) and Nuno Santos (long-term knee injury) are all out, which leaves Quaresma and Inacio as the centre-back pairing.
Suarez is expected to lead the line between Geny Catamo and Nestory Irankunda, with Doumbia, Altimira and Simoes in midfield. Kaique Pereira is in line to start in goal.
The defence is the weaker half of the side. Sporting have conceded 1.5 goals a game at home over their last ten matches but only 0.5 away, and they’ve kept a clean sheet in half of those away games.
Scoring hasn’t been a problem for Sporting at any point. They’ve found the net in every one of their last ten matches in all competitions, averaging 2.2 goals a game, and they have 21 in nine league fixtures.
Probable lineup Casa Pia: Mandic; Geraldes, Kaly, Sousa, Rosas; Ofori, Clua; Salah, Rego, Pauwels; Araujo
Probable lineup Sporting CP: Kaique Pereira; Fresneda, Quaresma, Inacio, Araujo; Doumbia, Altimira, Simoes; Catamo, Suarez, Irankunda
Free Football Prediction: Casa Pia vs Sporting CP
Our prediction: Sporting CP to win and under 3.5 goals (odds 2.11)
I’d back Sporting to win with fewer than four goals in the game at 2.11. Casa Pia have scored once in four home league games, and Sporting have conceded 0.5 goals per game on their travels over the last ten matches.
A heavy scoreline is what beats this bet. Sporting put eight past Casa Pia in January 2024, and four of the nine meetings in the recent record went over 3.5 goals. Casa Pia’s away results show they can defend, though, and a 2-0 or 3-0 is the range I expect.
Sporting have scored at least twice on each of their last six visits to Casa Pia. With Suarez scoring in ten straight appearances and the hosts barely scoring at Rio Maior, the away win inside three goals is the pick.
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