- 1 New Orleans Pelicans vs Sacramento Kings: ten points from 3-0, against a defense allowing 124
- 2 New Orleans Pelicans: the offense works, the fourth quarters don’t
- 3 Sacramento Kings: LaVine at 29 a game, and 33% shooting from the rookie guard
- 4 Free NBA Prediction: New Orleans Pelicans vs Sacramento Kings
- 5 About our free predictions
- 6 No commitment from us
- 7 Information changes
- 8 Your responsibility
- 9 Responsible gambling
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New Orleans Pelicans vs Sacramento Kings: ten points from 3-0, against a defense allowing 124 
New Orleans has lost its first three games by a combined ten points. Indiana won 123-120 in New Orleans on opening night, Utah won 120-119 in Salt Lake City and Denver needed overtime to win 141-135 after trailing by 23. Thursday 29 October brings the first realistic chance of a win for Jamahl Mosley’s team, at home against Sacramento at 8:00pm ET.
The Kings are also 0-3, and their losses haven’t been close in the same way. Sacramento lost 121-96 to the Clippers, 128-120 at home to Portland and 123-112 at home to Memphis on Sunday. Across those games the Kings have scored 109.3 points per game and given up 124.0, and they play in San Antonio on Tuesday before coming to Louisiana.
That gap between the two teams’ results is the starting point for this preview. New Orleans has shot 51% from the field in each of its last two games and averages 124.7 points. The problem has been closing: the Pelicans led Denver by 19 going into the fourth quarter and still lost, and they lost in Utah by a single point.
The scheduling cuts the other way. New Orleans hosts Denver again on Wednesday, so Thursday is the second night of a back-to-back, while the Kings have Wednesday off after their game in San Antonio. Sacramento has the fresher legs, and I’ll weigh that properly below.
The absences list is longer on the Sacramento side. Keegan Murray (ankle) will be re-evaluated in 10 to 14 days, Ben Simmons has had surgery on a torn right Achilles, and Dylan Cardwell (calf) and Maxime Raynaud (knee) are also out. New Orleans is without center Yves Missi, who has a bone bruise in his left knee and is expected to miss an extended period.
New Orleans Pelicans: the offense works, the fourth quarters don’t 
Zion Williamson has scored 22, 23 and 17 points, making 22 of his 39 shots for 56.4%. He’s been efficient without being dominant in volume, and his 8-of-12 night in Utah came in a one-point loss. Dejounte Murray has added 23, 16 and 22 points, with six assists in each of his last two games.
Trey Murphy III led the team with 26 points in Denver on 10-of-17 shooting. The Pelicans shot 65.9% in the first half of that game and were still beaten, because Jamal Murray scored 42 and Nikola Jokic finished with 35 points, 15 rebounds and 10 assists. Sacramento’s top two scorers, Zach LaVine and Darius Acuff Jr., have combined for 51 points per game, with Acuff shooting under 33%.
The bench has given Mosley useful scoring. Saddiq Bey scored 20 on 8-of-12 shooting in Utah, and Derik Queen has posted 12 and 17 points in his last two games, with eight rebounds against Denver. With Missi out, Queen’s minutes in the frontcourt rise.
Missi’s absence does cost something on the glass. He had 13 points and 14 rebounds in the opener against Indiana, and New Orleans was outrebounded 42-37 in Utah, the game he left with the knee injury. DeAndre Jordan started in Denver, where the Pelicans were edged 51-50 on the boards.
Turnovers have crept up from 14 to 15 to 18 across the three games. That number and the closing minutes are what separate this team from a 2-1 record, and both are easier to fix against a team allowing 124 points a game.
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Sacramento Kings: LaVine at 29 a game, and 33% shooting from the rookie guard 
Zach LaVine is carrying the scoring. He’s posted 28, 22 and 37 points, an average of 29.0, and his 37 against Memphis on Sunday came on 13-of-25 shooting. Even so, he finished that night with the team’s worst plus-minus, at minus-21.
Rookie Darius Acuff Jr. has taken a huge share of the shots in his first three games. He’s scored 12, 33 and 22 points, but on 24-of-73 shooting, which is 32.9%, and 4 of 27 from three. He started his NBA career by going 5 of 24 against the Clippers.
Domantas Sabonis remains the most reliable player on the roster. He had 27 points, 19 rebounds and 10 assists in the loss to Portland, then 15 points and 15 rebounds against Memphis. His passing from the high post is the one part of Sacramento’s offense that doesn’t depend on a jump shot going in.
The perimeter shooting has been poor in every game: 29%, 26% and 30% from three. Without Keegan Murray, the Kings don’t have an obvious wing to space the floor for Sabonis, and De’Andre Hunter and Precious Achiuwa have started alongside him.
The defensive numbers explain the record. Opponents have scored 121, 128 and 123 points, and Memphis outrebounded the Kings 54-44 on Sunday and made 24 of its 27 free throws. Last season Sacramento lost 34 of its 41 road games, and this team hasn’t yet shown it can stop anybody away from home either.
Probable lineup New Orleans Pelicans: Jeremiah Fears, Dejounte Murray, Trey Murphy III, Zion Williamson, DeAndre Jordan
Probable lineup Sacramento Kings: Darius Acuff Jr., Zach LaVine, De’Andre Hunter, Precious Achiuwa, Domantas Sabonis
Free NBA Prediction: New Orleans Pelicans vs Sacramento Kings
Our prediction: New Orleans Pelicans to win
The Pelicans have been competitive in all three of their games and have scored 119 or more each time. Sacramento has given up 121 or more each time. When one offense is shooting 51% and the other team’s defense is conceding 124 a game, I’d side with the offense, especially at home.
The back-to-back is the honest worry, and the Kings will have had a day off. Sacramento’s own form doesn’t suggest it can punish tired legs, though: its two-man scoring load of LaVine and Acuff has come on low efficiency from the rookie, and the injury list removes Murray, the wing who would normally ease that burden.
New Orleans to win is the pick. Williamson’s efficiency around the rim and Murray’s playmaking should be enough against a Kings team that has trailed for long stretches of its games, and the Pelicans’ closing problems are less likely to be exposed by a defense this porous.
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