- 1 Atlanta Hawks vs Cleveland Cavaliers: two nights in a row for both, but only one team on a plane
- 2 Atlanta Hawks: Jalen Johnson is doing everything, and the threes have stopped falling
- 3 Cleveland Cavaliers: Mitchell at 26.7 a game, and a turnover habit that went away against Minnesota
- 4 Free NBA Prediction: Atlanta Hawks vs Cleveland Cavaliers
- 5 About our free predictions
- 6 No commitment from us
- 7 Information changes
- 8 Your responsibility
- 9 Responsible gambling
- 10 Legal age
- 11 About visuals
Atlanta Hawks vs Cleveland Cavaliers: two nights in a row for both, but only one team on a plane 
Houston beat Atlanta twice in three days, 121-114 at State Farm Arena on Saturday and 120-110 in Houston on Monday. In both games the Hawks made fewer than 30% of their threes, 27% on Saturday and 28% on Monday, and that cold spell is the backdrop for Thursday 29 October, when Atlanta hosts Cleveland at 8:00pm ET.
The schedule matters here more than usual. Both teams play on Wednesday night, Atlanta at home against Miami and Cleveland at home against Washington, so this is the second half of a back-to-back for everybody involved. The difference is that the Hawks sleep in their own beds, while the Cavaliers have to fly from Cleveland after their game and arrive in Georgia for a second tip-off in roughly 24 hours.
Atlanta is 2-2. The season opened with two road wins, 132-125 in Orlando and a 128-81 rout in Charlotte in which the Hornets shot 34% from the field, before the double defeat to the Rockets. Cleveland is 2-1, having lost 114-106 in Philadelphia on opening night and then won two home games by a combined six points: 125-121 against Brooklyn and 127-125 in overtime against Minnesota.
The Cavaliers haven’t won on the road yet, and their only away game so far was a sloppy one. They committed 21 turnovers in Philadelphia and made 24% of their threes. That’s the strongest argument for Atlanta, and with the travel on top of it, I understand why some will lean toward the home team.
I still think the matchup itself points the other way. Houston outrebounded Atlanta 52-35 on Monday, and the Rockets’ Alperen Sengun had 29 points, nine rebounds and nine assists against the Hawks’ frontcourt. Cleveland brings Jarrett Allen and Evan Mobley, and Mobley alone has grabbed eight, ten and ten rebounds in his three games.
Atlanta Hawks: Jalen Johnson is doing everything, and the threes have stopped falling 
Jalen Johnson has started the season at 21.5 points, 9.8 rebounds and 8.3 assists per game. His line in Saturday’s home loss to Houston was 26 points, nine rebounds and 16 assists, and he took 19 shots that night as well. On Monday he led the team again with 21 points, but needed 14 shots to get there and made only one of five threes.
Nickeil Alexander-Walker opened the season with 31 points in Orlando, hitting five of eight from deep. He’s gone 6 for 19 from three across the two Houston games since. CJ McCollum has been the steadier scorer, with 19, 13, 17 and 20 points in his four games, and his 20 on Monday came on 8-of-16 shooting.
The defense has two very different results to show. Holding Charlotte to 81 points and 22% from three was the best performance of the young season, but Houston scored 121 and 120 in the two games that followed. On Monday the Rockets put together a 14-0 run early in the fourth quarter that turned a 95-93 game into a 16-point lead.
The frontcourt is thinner than it was in the summer. Mouhamed Gueye is out after surgery on a fractured left foot, and Henri Veesaar has a torn right ACL and is expected to miss the whole season. Onyeka Okongwu started on Monday next to Johnson, and those two absences leave fewer big bodies behind him.
Wednesday’s visit from Miami adds another layer. Atlanta will play its fifth game in seven days on Thursday, and Monday’s loss was decided by Houston’s work on the glass and in the paint as much as by Atlanta’s shooting.
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Cleveland Cavaliers: Mitchell at 26.7 a game, and a turnover habit that went away against Minnesota 
Donovan Mitchell has scored 32, 22 and 26 points in his three games, an average of 26.7. Against Minnesota on Monday he hit the go-ahead 19-foot fadeaway with 48 seconds left in overtime and scored five of his points in the extra period. Anthony Edwards had 47 for the Timberwolves that night, and Cleveland still won.
James Harden added 19 points and nine assists in that game, including the two free throws with 13 seconds left that put the Cavaliers up 125-122. He also forced overtime by tying the score at 113 with 10.4 seconds left in regulation. The Mitchell-Harden backcourt has shared the ball well, and Cleveland had 12 turnovers against Minnesota after 21 in Philadelphia and 23 against Brooklyn.
Evan Mobley is averaging 18.7 points and has grabbed eight, ten and ten rebounds. Jarrett Allen made 7 of 8 shots for 21 points against Brooklyn. Those two are the reason I like this matchup for Cleveland, because Atlanta’s last game was lost in the paint and on the boards.
The rotation also has a new name. Meleek Thomas, taken 34th overall in June’s draft, scored 16 points on his NBA debut against Minnesota, going 4 of 5 from three. Peyton Watson started on the wing that night, adding length to a lineup built around Mitchell and Harden.
The road form is the open question. The opening-night loss in Philadelphia came with 21 turnovers, 24% from three and 32 points from Mitchell that weren’t enough. Cleveland shot 42% and 40% from deep in its two home wins, and the Cavaliers will need something close to that in Atlanta.
Probable lineup Atlanta Hawks: Dyson Daniels, Nickeil Alexander-Walker, CJ McCollum, Jalen Johnson, Onyeka Okongwu
Probable lineup Cleveland Cavaliers: James Harden, Donovan Mitchell, Peyton Watson, Evan Mobley, Jarrett Allen
Free NBA Prediction: Atlanta Hawks vs Cleveland Cavaliers
Our prediction: Cleveland Cavaliers to win
Atlanta was outrebounded by 17 and gave up 29 points to an opposing big man in its last game, and Cleveland arrives with two starting bigs who have both been productive. Size was the problem the Hawks couldn’t solve on Monday, and Johnson can’t carry the rebounding and the playmaking on his own for 48 minutes on the second night of a back-to-back.
The travel is a real disadvantage for Cleveland, and the 21-turnover performance in Philadelphia shows how the Cavaliers can lose a road game. Their ball security has improved since, though, and with Mitchell scoring at 26.7 a night and Harden coming off nine assists against Minnesota, they have more ways to score late than an Atlanta team shooting 27% and 28% from three in its last two games.
I’d take the Cavaliers on the moneyline. If the Hawks’ shooting comes back in front of their own crowd this can be close, but Cleveland’s size and its closing pair in the backcourt make it the better side on Thursday.
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