- 1 St. Louis Blues vs Boston Bruins: five Blues on the injury list, and a Boston team scoring four a night
- 2 St. Louis Blues: a 24.1% power play, and a big gap between their two goalies
- 3 Boston Bruins: Pastrnak’s 17 points and two goalies at .920 or better
- 4 Free NHL Prediction: St. Louis Blues vs Boston Bruins
- 5 About our free predictions
- 6 No commitment from us
- 7 Information changes
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St. Louis Blues vs Boston Bruins: five Blues on the injury list, and a Boston team scoring four a night 
St. Louis will go into Thursday’s game without Torey Krug, Dillon Dube, Alexey Toropchenko, Tyler Tucker and Ross Johnston, all listed as out. That’s five players missing for a team that’s 5-5-1 and sixth in the Central Division, and the visitors on Thursday 29 October are a Boston team that’s 9-2-1. Puck drop at Enterprise Center is 8:00pm ET.
The Bruins have scored 48 goals in 12 games, an average of four per game, on only 26.3 shots a night. They’ve allowed 26, or 2.17 per game. That combination of efficient finishing and a stingy defense has produced four wins in their last five games, including 6-0 against Nashville and 6-4 against San Jose last week. Boston has scored six goals in each of its last two games.
St. Louis has been harder to read. The Blues have scored 35 goals and allowed 35, and their season has swung between a 7-2 win in Ottawa and a 6-2 home win over Vegas on one side, and a 6-1 loss in Colorado and Saturday’s 4-0 home defeat to Carolina on the other.
Both teams play on Tuesday, Boston in Raleigh against Carolina and St. Louis at home against Montreal, so neither has a rest advantage. The Bruins will be on the second stop of a road trip, and they’ve been comfortable away from home, at 4-1-1 on the road.
My view is that Boston’s consistency is worth more than St. Louis’s home record here, and I’ll explain why the Blues’ strongest asset, their power play, may not be enough to change that.
St. Louis Blues: a 24.1% power play, and a big gap between their two goalies 
The power play is the best part of the Blues’ game. They’ve scored seven goals with the man advantage, a 24.1% conversion rate, and that unit has carried a five-on-five attack that has been inconsistent from night to night.
Mason McTavish is the scorer who decides games. He has six goals on 31 shots, 10 points and three game-winning goals. Dylan Holloway also has 10 points, with seven assists, and Jimmy Snuggerud has six goals in 11 games. Connor McMichael has seven points and Robert Thomas six.
Joel Hofer has been the reliable goalie, with four wins, a 2.40 goals-against average and a .917 save percentage. He made 35 saves on 39 shots against Carolina on Saturday and still lost 4-0. Jordan Binnington has struggled badly, at 1-2-0 with a 4.68 GAA and an .831 save percentage, so the starter on Thursday matters a lot.
Home ice has helped. St. Louis is 3-1-1 at Enterprise Center, with wins over Columbus, Winnipeg and Vegas, and its only regulation home loss came against Carolina. The Blues allowed one goal to Winnipeg and two to Vegas in the two home wins before that.
The absences take depth out of the lineup. With five players out, St. Louis has leaned on the same group of scorers every night, while Boston has found goals from Fraser Minten and James Hagens behind its top names.
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Boston Bruins: Pastrnak’s 17 points and two goalies at .920 or better 
David Pastrnak leads Boston with 17 points, seven goals and 10 assists. Elias Lindholm and Fraser Minten have 10 points each, Minten with five goals, and Morgan Geekie has nine points, eight of them assists. James Hagens has added four goals and five assists.
The goaltending has been the foundation. Jeremy Swayman has a 2.20 GAA and a .920 save percentage through nine appearances, although he allowed four goals on 27 shots in Saturday’s 6-4 win over San Jose. Michael DiPietro made 28 saves in a 6-0 shutout of Nashville last week and has a save percentage above .940 in his three appearances.
The road trip through California earlier this month showed what this team does away from home. Boston won 6-3 in San Jose, 4-2 in Anaheim and 4-1 in Los Angeles, then lost 3-2 in overtime in Dallas. Their only regulation road loss came in Minnesota in the first week of the season.
Shot volume is the one number that doesn’t fit. Boston takes 26.3 shots and allows 27.9 per game, so it’s being outshot on average and winning on finishing and goaltending. That’s a profile that can regress, and it’s the main reason for caution on this pick.
The Bruins’ two regulation losses came early, 4-1 in Minnesota and 4-1 at home to Ottawa in the first week. Since then they’re 7-0-1, and they have allowed seven goals across their last four wins.
Probable lineup St. Louis Blues: Not announced at time of publication
Probable lineup Boston Bruins: Not announced at time of publication
Free NHL Prediction: St. Louis Blues vs Boston Bruins
Our prediction: Boston Bruins to win
Boston has gone 7-0-1 since the first week of the season, scores four goals a game and has two goalies with save percentages of .920 or better. St. Louis is a .500 team with five players out and a goaltending split that becomes a real problem whenever Binnington starts.
The Blues’ power play is a genuine threat, and the Bruins’ shot numbers suggest they’ve had some luck in their finishing. If Hofer starts and St. Louis gets three or four power plays, this can be close.
I’d still back the Bruins on the moneyline. Their form on the road, their scoring spread through the lineup and the depth St. Louis is missing make Boston the stronger team on Thursday.
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