- 1 Napoli vs Lazio: eight names missing at the Maradona as the unbeaten leaders arrive
- 2 Napoli: a back four gone and a 3-5-1-1 to cover for it
- 3 Lazio: 24 goals, no defeats and two big away wins
- 4 Free Serie A Prediction: Napoli vs Lazio
- 5 About our free predictions
- 6 No commitment from us
- 7 Information changes
- 8 Your responsibility
- 9 Responsible gambling
- 10 Legal age
- 11 About visuals
Napoli vs Lazio: eight names missing at the Maradona as the unbeaten leaders arrive 
Lazio have taken 28 points from a possible 30. Nine wins and a draw from ten Serie A games have put them four points clear of Roma at the top, and their goal difference of plus 16 is built on 24 scored and only eight conceded.
Napoli are 14 points behind them, in eighth, and the gap is wider than the table alone suggests. They’ve lost four of their ten league games, including a 2-0 defeat at Juventus last time out and a 1-0 loss at Venezia, and they’ve conceded 13 goals to Lazio’s eight.
Kick-off at the Diego Armando Maradona is 11:30 UK time on Sunday 8 November. The market still leans towards the home side, with Napoli at 2.20, the draw at 3.60 and Lazio at 3.10.
That’s the part of this fixture that needs explaining, because the prices don’t reflect the injury lists. Napoli are without Buongiorno, Di Lorenzo, Spinazzola, Lobotka, Neres, Favasuli and Badiashile, and Marianucci is suspended, which adds up to eight first-team absentees before anyone looks at the doubts.
Lazio have two men out and two to assess. Zaccagni and Gudmundsson are missing, while Marusic and Rovella will be checked before the weekend, so Sunday’s visitors arrive much closer to full strength than the side they’re playing.
Napoli: a back four gone and a 3-5-1-1 to cover for it 
The absences hit hardest in defence. With Buongiorno, Di Lorenzo, Spinazzola, Favasuli and Badiashile all out, plus Marianucci banned, Napoli are expected to line up with Rrahmani, Rafa Marin and Beukema in a back three.
Lobotka is the midfield absentee. Anguissa, Gilmour and McTominay are expected to start in his place, and De Bruyne plays behind Hojlund in the projected 3-5-1-1, with Politano and Lang as the wing-backs.
Napoli’s last five league results are hard to read. They drew 3-3 with Roma, won 4-1 at Monza and beat Frosinone 3-0, but they also lost to Venezia and Juventus without scoring in either game.
Their recent home numbers are better than that. They’ve averaged 14 shots and 6.2 on target at the Maradona, and that attack remains the best argument for the 2.20 price with De Bruyne and McTominay both available.
The other end worries me more. Napoli have conceded 1.3 goals a game this season, and their back line won’t be the usual one here. Milinkovic-Savic is also a doubt, with Meret the probable goalkeeper, so even the last line of the side isn’t fixed.
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Lazio: 24 goals, no defeats and two big away wins 
Lazio’s last five league games read like the record of a side that has found a formula. They’ve won all five: 2-1 against Cagliari, 6-2 at Sassuolo, 2-1 against Parma, 3-0 at Juventus and 3-1 against Monza.
The trips to Juventus and Sassuolo are the ones that matter for Sunday. Lazio scored nine goals across those two away games and conceded two, and the win at Juventus came at a ground where Napoli have just lost 2-0.
They average 2.4 goals a game and concede 0.8, the best numbers of either team by a distance. Away from home they’ve recently averaged 13.2 shots and 4.4 on target, so they haven’t needed huge volume to score, and that matters against a patched-up back three.
Without Zaccagni and Gudmundsson, Isaksen and Noslin are expected to start either side of Pinamonti in a 4-3-3. Frattesi, Belahyane and Taylor make up the midfield, and Mandas is the probable goalkeeper behind Floriani Mussolini, Sutalo, Provstgaard and Nuno Tavares.
Discipline is the one area where Napoli have an edge. Lazio commit 11.1 fouls a game and pick up 1.6 yellow cards, against 8.6 fouls and 0.8 yellows for Sunday’s hosts, though neither figure has cost Lazio a league game yet.
Probable lineup Napoli: Meret; Rrahmani, Rafa Marin, Beukema; Politano, Anguissa, Gilmour, McTominay, Lang; De Bruyne; Hojlund
Probable lineup Lazio: Mandas; Floriani Mussolini, Sutalo, Provstgaard, Nuno Tavares; Frattesi, Belahyane, Taylor; Isaksen, Pinamonti, Noslin
Free Serie A Prediction: Napoli vs Lazio
Our prediction: Lazio to win at odds of 3.10
Lazio have won five in a row, they’ve won at Juventus and Sassuolo by a combined 9-2, and they haven’t lost in ten league games. At 3.10 the price treats them as underdogs against a team 14 points behind them and missing eight players.
The case for Napoli is the Maradona and the 3-3 with Roma, and De Bruyne and McTominay are both capable of deciding a game on their own. I don’t think that’s enough given what’s missing behind them, with Lobotka out of midfield and a full back line unavailable.
I’d take the league leaders at 3.10 and expect something like 2-1 to Lazio.
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