- 1 Genoa vs AC Milan: three straight wins at Marassi against a side with one league defeat
- 2 Genoa: three home wins in a row, but one goal a game across the season
- 3 AC Milan: 2.1 goals a game despite six players missing
- 4 Free Serie A Prediction: Genoa vs AC Milan
- 5 About our free predictions
- 6 No commitment from us
- 7 Information changes
- 8 Your responsibility
- 9 Responsible gambling
- 10 Legal age
- 11 About visuals
Genoa vs AC Milan: three straight wins at Marassi against a side with one league defeat 
Milan beat Inter 3-1 last weekend, and that derby win lifted them to fifth on 21 points with one defeat from ten league games. It came a week after that lone loss, a 4-2 home defeat to Bologna, which shows how quickly this side has recovered from its worst afternoon of the season.
Their next trip is to Genoa, who are 11th on 13 points and have just won three league games in a row. Kick-off at Marassi is 14:00 UK time on Sunday 8 November, with Genoa at 4.60, the draw at 3.55 and Milan at 1.82.
The context around the fixture makes it harder than the table implies. Milan’s absentee list has six names on it, and they also play Ferencvaros at home in the Europa League on Thursday, so they’ll arrive with a three-day turnaround.
Genoa’s week has been simpler. Daniele De Rossi’s side won 2-1 at Lecce last Sunday, a first away league win after three straight defeats on the road.
The difference between the sides shows up in the goal columns. Milan have scored 21 and conceded 12 in ten games, a goal difference of plus nine. Genoa have scored ten and conceded 14, and they’ve needed tight margins to collect their points.
Genoa: three home wins in a row, but one goal a game across the season 
Marassi has turned around in a month. Genoa beat Fiorentina 2-1, Venezia 1-0 and Juventus 2-0 there in October, conceding one goal across the three games, and those results are most of the reason they’re 11th.
The win over Juventus came from De Rossi’s 3-5-2, with Ehizibue scoring the opener from wing-back after 12 minutes. That’s been the pattern of Genoa’s better displays, with the wide players supplying more of the threat than the strikers do.
The side expected on Sunday shifts slightly to a 3-4-2-1. Marcandalli, Ostigard and Vasquez stay in front of Bijlow, Ehizibue and Ellertsson work the flanks either side of Frendrup and Traore, and Messias and El Shaarawy sit behind Osmajic.
Venturino and Havel are both out, which is a far shorter list than Milan’s. Both were already injury concerns before the Juventus win, so De Rossi can pick something close to the side that has won three in a row.
Genoa’s numbers still argue for caution. They’ve scored one goal a game this season and conceded 1.4, with five defeats from ten, including heavy results against Como and Napoli early on. Their recent home figures of 13.86 shots and 3.57 on target don’t describe a side that overwhelms good teams.
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AC Milan: 2.1 goals a game despite six players missing 
Milan’s last five league games have produced three wins, a draw and that Bologna defeat. They beat Inter 3-1, won 2-0 at Udinese, beat Atalanta 3-2 and drew 1-1 at Sassuolo, and they’ve scored in all of them.
The list of absentees is long: Terracciano, Gabbia, Tomori, Saelemaekers, Loftus-Cheek and Chukwueze. With Gabbia and Tomori missing, De Winter and Pavlovic are expected to start in the middle of a back four, with Gila and Diawara outside them.
That back four is the part of Milan’s team most likely to give Genoa a chance. They concede 1.2 a game, and the 4-2 home loss to Bologna and the 3-2 over Atalanta both came in the last month, so they’ve given up six goals in those two matches alone.
Further forward the side looks stronger. Modric, Musah and Rabiot are all expected to start, with Pulisic and Moreira on the flanks, Goncalo Ramos up front and Maignan in goal.
Away from home they’ve recently averaged 11.17 shots and 5.17 on target. The on-target figure is the one that stands out, because it’s well above Genoa’s 3.57 at home even though Genoa take more shots.
Probable lineup Genoa: Bijlow; Marcandalli, Ostigard, Vasquez; Ehizibue, Frendrup, Traore, Ellertsson; Messias, El Shaarawy; Osmajic
Probable lineup AC Milan: Maignan; Gila, De Winter, Pavlovic, Diawara; Moreira, Musah, Modric, Pulisic; Rabiot; Goncalo Ramos
Free Serie A Prediction: Genoa vs AC Milan
Our prediction: AC Milan to win at odds of 1.82
Milan have won six of ten, they score 2.1 a game against Genoa’s 1.0, and they beat their city rivals 3-1 last time out in the league. Those numbers are a better guide to this match than a three-game Genoa run built on one-goal and two-goal wins.
The honest argument against is the three-day turnaround and those six absentees, and Genoa’s home form deserves respect after the Juventus win. Even so, Milan have lost once in ten league games, and Genoa have already lost five times.
I’d take Milan at 1.82, and I’d expect a 2-1 away win with both sides finding the net.
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