- 1 Ireland vs Argentina: no Puma win in Dublin, and no Puma defeat by more than nine this year
- 2 Ireland: Prendergast back, but Doris and Conan missing from the back row
- 3 Argentina: Albornoz returns from a ban to a side that keeps games close
- 4 Free Rugby Prediction: Ireland vs Argentina
- 5 About our free predictions
- 6 No commitment from us
- 7 Information changes
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Ireland vs Argentina: no Puma win in Dublin, and no Puma defeat by more than nine this year
Argentina have never beaten Ireland in Dublin. They’ve played each other 25 times since 1952, Ireland have won 16 to Argentina’s eight with one draw, and the last four meetings have all gone to Ireland, most recently 22-19 in November 2024.
The two meet again at the Aviva Stadium on Friday 6 November, with kick-off at 20:10 UK time and Luke Pearce refereeing, in the fourth round of the Nations Championship. Ireland have 10 points and Argentina seven, and the two sides sit third and eighth in the world rankings, on 88.08 and 82.24.
The bookmakers make Ireland 10-point favourites and price them at 1.22 outright. That moneyline is too short to interest anyone, so the real argument in this match sits on the handicap, and that’s where the Pumas’ year needs a closer look.
Argentina have won once in six Tests in 2026, which reads badly until the margins come into it. They lost 47-38 to Scotland, 31-24 to England, 17-10 to South Africa and 27-21 to Australia, then drew 28-28 with the Wallabies in Mendoza. None of those defeats came by more than nine points.
Ireland’s own results run in the opposite direction, with wide gaps at both ends. They beat England 42-21 and Scotland 43-21 in the Six Nations, then lost 36-14 to France and 40-21 to New Zealand, and four of their last eight Tests have been decided by 19 points or more.
Ireland: Prendergast back, but Doris and Conan missing from the back row 
Ireland’s last five Tests produced 160 points scored and 129 conceded, an average of 32 for and nearly 26 against. That second figure matters here, because a side letting in 26 a game has to score heavily to cover a double-digit handicap.
The win over Australia in Sydney in July finished 33-31, and it shows what happens when Ireland’s defence is stretched by a side that keeps the ball alive. Japan were then beaten 36-20 in Newcastle before the 40-21 defeat at Eden Park closed the tour.
Doris, Conan and Crowley are all out, and Ringrose and O’Brien are also missing, Ringrose with a hamstring problem. Doris and Conan’s absence reshapes the back row, with Jansen at number eight and Baird and Timoney alongside him.
There are returns to offset that. Prendergast comes back from a wrist injury at fly-half with Casey partnering him at nine, and Porter and Baird also return. Sheehan captains the side from hooker.
The bench is where Ireland should pull ahead late. Kelleher, van der Flier, Gibson-Park and Aki all start among the replacements, and Ireland will need them if a narrow lead is to become something bigger.
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Argentina: Albornoz returns from a ban to a side that keeps games close 
Albornoz is back at fly-half after a four-match ban. Montoya leads the side from hooker, with Matera and Kremer in the back row, and Gallo is among their absentees.
Their numbers across the last five Tests are close to level, at 118 points scored and 124 conceded. Averages of 23.6 for and 24.8 against describe a team that rarely runs away from anybody and rarely gets run away from, which is exactly the profile a handicap backer wants.
Their only win this year came 35-21 against Wales in San Juan in July. All four defeats and the draw came at home in Argentina, so a trip to Dublin isn’t the obvious place to expect a change of fortune, and I don’t expect them to win.
Petti and Rubiolo start in the second row, Chocobares and Piccardo are the centres, and Mallia is at full-back. Cinti, Prisciantelli and Benitez Cruz are the backs named on the bench.
Argentina have won in this city recently, beating the British and Irish Lions 28-24 in Dublin in 2025. Their World Cup record against Ireland stands at three wins from four, including 43-20 in Cardiff in 2015, and the 22-19 defeat in November 2024 was a three-point game.
Probable lineup Ireland: Keenan; Baloucoune, Henshaw, McCloskey, Hansen; Prendergast, Casey; Porter, Sheehan (c), Furlong, McCarthy, Beirne, Baird, Timoney, Jansen
Probable lineup Argentina: Mallia; Delguy, Piccardo, Chocobares, Carreras; Albornoz, Garcia; Wenger, Montoya (c), Moreno, Petti, Rubiolo, J.M. Gonzalez, Kremer, Matera
Free Rugby Prediction: Ireland vs Argentina
Our prediction: Argentina +10 points at odds of 1.91
Ireland should win this and extend a record that has stood since 1952, but the price asks them to win by 11 or more. Argentina haven’t lost by more than nine in six Tests this year, and they’ve done that against Scotland, England, South Africa and Australia.
The case against is the 53-7 from 2021 and Ireland’s habit of pulling clear at home, as they did against Scotland in March. The back-row absences and a defence conceding nearly 26 a game make me doubt they’ll do it here, and two of the last four meetings finished inside 11 points.
Argentina +10 at 1.91 covers everything short of an Irish runaway, and I’d expect something close to a one-score game settled in the final quarter.
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