- 1 Millwall vs Derby County: seven meetings without a Derby win, and ten league goals all season
- 2 Millwall: four home games without a win, but Dykes leads the line
- 3 Derby County: no Agyemang, and four defenders missing
- 4 Free Football Prediction: Millwall vs Derby County
- 5 About our free predictions
- 6 No commitment from us
- 7 Information changes
- 8 Your responsibility
- 9 Responsible gambling
- 10 Legal age
- 11 About visuals
Millwall vs Derby County: seven meetings without a Derby win, and ten league goals all season 
Derby County haven’t beaten Millwall since 5 December 2020, when they won 1-0 at The Den. In the seven meetings since, Millwall have won four and drawn three, and the most recent was a 1-0 Millwall win in south London on 10 March.
That record matters more than usual because of the way these games tend to go. Six of those seven meetings finished 1-0 or 1-1, and the only exception was a 2-1 Millwall win at Pride Park in February 2022. Low scores, narrow margins, and almost always in Millwall’s favour.
The two sides meet again on Saturday 31 October, kick-off 15:00 UK time at The Den. Alex Neil’s Millwall are 13th, five points off the top eight, and John Eustace’s Derby are 23rd, two points above the bottom of the Championship.
Neither team arrives in good form. Millwall are winless in three and have won one of their last seven league games, while Derby haven’t won in eight, with three draws and five defeats in that run.
The difference between them is at the attacking end. Derby have scored ten goals in 12 league games, the joint-lowest total in the division with Preston and Watford, and they’ll be without their main striker, Patrick Agyemang.
Millwall are 1.70 favourites, with the draw at 3.60 and Derby at 4.60. I’d take the home side, and the reasons come down to who’s available on the day.
Millwall: four home games without a win, but Dykes leads the line 
Millwall haven’t won any of their last four competitive home games, and that’s the honest objection to backing them. Their league wins at The Den this season came early, 3-0 against Norwich in August and 4-0 against Bolton in September.
Since then the home results have been draws and a narrow defeat. They drew 2-2 with West Ham and 2-2 with Lincoln, scoring twice in both, and lost 1-0 to Swansea.
The away form has been steadier. Millwall drew 2-2 at Middlesbrough, the league leaders, and won 1-0 at Preston before last weekend’s 2-1 defeat at Portsmouth, where the winner came late.
Lyndon Dykes is the main threat with four Championship goals, and he’s expected to lead the line again. The squad lost Femi Azeez to Brighton in the summer, which has put more of the scoring burden on Dykes and the wide players, Neghli and Lisbie.
Neil has a long injury list of his own. Tairyk Arconte has an ankle injury, Josh Coburn a muscular problem, and Casper De Norre has missed the last eight Championship games. Luongo is out with a knee injury and Ivanovic is a doubt with a hamstring problem.
The back four is the part of the side that’s held together. Cooper has started all four of the recently recorded meetings with Derby, and Crama the last three, so Millwall’s defence knows this opponent well.
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Derby County: no Agyemang, and four defenders missing 
Derby have kept one clean sheet in 13 competitive games this season, and the reason they’re likely to struggle at The Den is that the defence is missing most of its first choices. Charlie Taylor, Matt Clarke, Eiran Cashin and Sondre Langas are all listed as absent.
Clarke’s absence stands out. He started the last three meetings with Millwall, including the 1-0 defeat in March, and his calf injury means Eustace will field a reworked back line built around Ward, Nyambe, Robinson and Hedges.
The squad problems go further. Sanderson is suspended after a red card, and Forsyth, Murkin and Travis are also listed out. One team-news report has goalkeeper Zetterstrom out with a knee problem too, which would leave Derby without their first-choice keeper as well.
Then there’s the attack. Agyemang is out with an Achilles injury, and without him Derby’s options are Brewster, Szmodics, Salvensen and Morris, in a squad that has scored ten league goals all season.
The recent results reflect it: a 2-1 home defeat by Birmingham, 1-1 at Burnley, 1-1 at home to Wrexham, a 4-1 defeat at QPR, a 1-0 home defeat by Stoke and 1-1 at Sheffield United last time out. Two of their last three away league games were draws.
That away record, one win and two draws from six trips, is the best argument Derby have. They’re harder to beat on the road than at Pride Park, where they still haven’t won a league game this season.
Probable lineup Millwall: Crocombe; Crama, Taylor, Cooper, Sturge; Metcalfe, Mazou-Sacko; Neghli, Cundle, Lisbie; Dykes
Probable lineup Derby County: Zetterstrom (doubtful); Ward, Nyambe, Robinson, Hedges; Clark, Ozoh; Brewster, Szmodics; Salvensen, Morris
Free Football Prediction: Millwall vs Derby County
Our prediction: Millwall to win at 1.70
Derby’s ten league goals in 12 games and the loss of Agyemang mean they need a lot to go right to score at The Den, against a defence that has kept clean sheets in three of the last seven meetings.
Millwall’s home form is the obvious concern, four games without a win, and Derby’s away draws give them a route to a point. I’d still weigh the head-to-head and the injury lists more heavily: Derby are missing four defenders and their striker, and Millwall have Dykes.
A narrow home win, 1-0 or 2-0, fits everything about this fixture’s recent history. Millwall to win at 1.70 is the pick.
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