- 1 Middlesbrough vs Charlton Athletic: the league leaders against a side without a win since August
- 2 Middlesbrough: Lankshear’s 11 goals and 2.25 a game at the Riverside
- 3 Charlton Athletic: 0.40 points per game away from The Valley
- 4 Free Football Prediction: Middlesbrough vs Charlton Athletic
- 5 About our free predictions
- 6 No commitment from us
- 7 Information changes
- 8 Your responsibility
- 9 Responsible gambling
- 10 Legal age
- 11 About visuals
Middlesbrough vs Charlton Athletic: the league leaders against a side without a win since August 
Will Lankshear has scored 11 goals in 12 Championship appearances since Middlesbrough signed him from Tottenham in July. Nobody has done more to put Kim Hellberg’s side at the top of the table, and on Saturday 31 October, kick-off 15:00 UK time at the Riverside, he faces a Charlton defence that has been leaking goals on the road.
Middlesbrough lead the division by two points from Swansea City. Their last league defeat came in August, and the 5-1 win at Bolton last Friday stretched the unbeaten league run to 11 matches.
That run hasn’t been a procession. It includes draws with Millwall, Birmingham and Cardiff, all 2-2, and Boro have conceded 1.60 goals per game across their last ten matches. They score a lot, and they give a bit back.
Charlton are 19th, six points above the bottom three, and they haven’t won a league game in nine attempts: five draws and four defeats. Nathan Jones’s side lost 3-1 at home to Norwich last Saturday, a week after a 2-0 defeat at Watford.
The meeting at the Riverside in March is the one detail that gives Charlton something to hold onto. They won 1-0 there on 11 March, three months after Middlesbrough had won 2-1 at The Valley. Across the last 12 meetings, though, Boro have won eight, Charlton two, and two have been drawn.
Middlesbrough are short favourites at 1.25 to win, so the interest is in the margin. I think the gap between the two sides’ away and home numbers makes a two-goal win the likeliest outcome.
Middlesbrough: Lankshear’s 11 goals and 2.25 a game at the Riverside 
Middlesbrough have averaged 2.25 goals per home match over their last ten games, and their expected goals figure at the Riverside in that span is 2.41 per game. The chances are coming in volume, and Lankshear is the one finishing them.
The league results show how often that’s been enough. Boro beat Wolves 1-0 and won 3-2 at Stoke before the draw with Cardiff, then went to Bolton and scored five. At home this season they’ve won four and drawn two in the league.
The weakness is at the other end. Their home games over the last ten have seen 1.75 goals conceded per match, and Boro have kept a clean sheet in only 20% of those ten games. Hellberg’s side tend to win by outscoring teams, not by shutting them out.
That’s where the absence of Alfie Jones comes in. The centre-back has a calf problem, and Rokas Pukstas, still waiting for a first competitive appearance for the club because of a muscular injury, is also out, as is David Strelec, who hasn’t been in a matchday squad since September.
The rest of the side is settled. Morris and Berhalter are expected to form the midfield pair, with McGree, Conway and Cozier-Duberry in the line behind Lankshear, and Brittain and Borges at full-back.
Against a Charlton side that has failed to score in 40% of its last ten matches, Boro probably don’t need to be perfect at the back. They need Lankshear to keep finishing at the rate that’s brought him 11 goals in 12 appearances.
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Charlton Athletic: 0.40 points per game away from The Valley 
Over their last ten matches, Charlton have taken 0.40 points per game away from home. They’ve conceded 2.40 goals per away match in that run and haven’t won any of their last five away fixtures.
The attack hasn’t covered for it. Leaving aside the win at West Ham in late August, Charlton have scored four times in five league away games, and their expected goals figure on the road over the last ten is 1.01 per match.
The league sequence makes the same point. Since the start of the winless run they’ve drawn 0-0 with Portsmouth, lost 3-1 at Cardiff, drawn 1-1 with Bristol City and 2-2 at Burnley, lost 2-0 at Watford and then 3-1 at home to Norwich.
Tyreece Campbell is the player Jones relies on for something different. He has five goal contributions in 12 Championship matches and is expected to start wide, with Kelman ahead of him.
The injury news is mixed. Collins Sichenje is out for the season with a serious knee injury, Rob Apter is also sidelined with a knee problem, and both Matt Godden and Nathaniel Chalobah are doubts with muscle issues.
If Chalobah misses out, Charlton lose experience in central midfield. Coventry and Rankin-Costello are the probable pair in front of a back four of Ramsay, Jones, Koumetio and Mesik.
Probable lineup Middlesbrough: Vitek; Brittain, Phillips, Malanda, Borges; Morris, Berhalter; Cozier-Duberry, McGree, Conway; Lankshear
Probable lineup Charlton Athletic: Okonkwo; Ramsay, Jones, Koumetio, Mesik; Coventry, Rankin-Costello; Campbell, Carey, Leaburn; Kelman
Free Football Prediction: Middlesbrough vs Charlton Athletic
Our prediction: Middlesbrough -1 European handicap (win by two or more) at 1.67
Boro’s home attack averages 2.25 goals and Charlton’s away defence concedes 2.40, while Charlton’s own away output has been four goals in five league games excluding West Ham. Those three figures point to a home win with room to spare.
The risk is Middlesbrough’s tendency to concede, and the 1-0 Charlton win at the Riverside in March is a reminder that this fixture can go wrong for them. Boro are now 11 league games unbeaten, though, and Charlton arrive nine games without a league win.
A 1.25 price on the home win doesn’t offer much. Taking Middlesbrough to win by two or more at 1.67 backs the same reading with a better return, and Lankshear’s form makes a 2-0 or 3-1 the kind of score I expect.
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