- 1 Marseille vs Toulouse: three wins in a row for OM, no away defeat for Toulouse
- 2 Marseille: 18 goals scored, three conceded in 13 minutes against the bottom side
- 3 Toulouse: unbeaten on the road, goalless in three of four at home
- 4 Free Ligue 1 Prediction: Marseille vs Toulouse
- 5 About our free predictions
- 6 No commitment from us
- 7 Information changes
- 8 Your responsibility
- 9 Responsible gambling
- 10 Legal age
- 11 About visuals
Marseille vs Toulouse: three wins in a row for OM, no away defeat for Toulouse 
Marseille led Le Havre 4-0 at the Vélodrome last Sunday with 55 minutes gone and finished the game hanging on at 4-3. Josh Maja scored twice and Mouhamed Lamine Ndiaye once in the last 13 minutes, for a side that’s bottom of Ligue 1 on two points.
It still counted as a third straight league win for Bruno Genesio’s side, after 2-0 at Troyes on 11 October and 5-2 at Angers a week later. Either side of the Angers game, though, they lost both of their Europa League matches this month, to Olympiakos at home and at Sturm Graz.
Marseille are eighth on 12 points, with four wins, four defeats and no draws. Their 18 league goals are level with Rennes for the most in the division, and they’ve conceded 13.
Toulouse are 11th on ten points. Jens Berthel Askou’s side haven’t lost away from home in the league, one win and three draws, and they’ve scored nine times in those four games.
Marseille’s defensive numbers don’t match their attacking ones. Ten sides in Ligue 1 have conceded fewer than their 13 in eight games, and five of those goals came in the last two wins.
The last two meetings were close. It finished 2-2 at the Vélodrome in November 2025, and Marseille won 1-0 in Toulouse in March 2026.
Kick-off is 19:45 UK time on Sunday 1 November. Marseille’s winning run has come against three of the bottom five, and I’m not convinced it says much about how they’ll handle a side that hasn’t lost on the road.
Marseille: 18 goals scored, three conceded in 13 minutes against the bottom side 
The goals against Le Havre came from all over the side. CJ Egan-Riley scored after five minutes, Timothy Weah on 33, Igor Paixão five minutes into the second half and Himad Abdelli on 55.
Then the game drifted. Maja scored on 77 and 89 minutes with Ndiaye’s goal in between, and Marseille went into stoppage time with a one-goal lead they’d built to four. Neal Maupay was booked deep into added time as they held on.
Before Troyes, Genesio’s side had lost three league games in a row. Their four league defeats include a 2-0 at Monaco on 30 August. The season had opened with a 4-0 win over Strasbourg, Amine Gouiri scoring twice.
Europe hasn’t helped. Olympiakos won at the Vélodrome on 15 October and Marseille lost again in Graz on 22 October, failing to score in either game.
The home numbers across all competitions read two wins and three defeats in the last five, with 11 scored and nine conceded. Le Havre’s three late goals account for a third of those conceded.
In their last five matches in all competitions Marseille have scored 11 and conceded seven, and the attack is doing far more of the work than the back four.
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Toulouse: unbeaten on the road, goalless in three of four at home 
Toulouse have scored 12 league goals, and nine of them have come away from home. Only three have come at the Stadium, all in one game.
Toulouse’s away results read 2-2 at Brest, 2-2 at Lorient, 2-2 at Monaco and 3-0 at Le Mans. That’s nine goals scored, six conceded and no defeats.
At home it’s been the opposite. They lost 2-0 to Lyon and 1-0 to Lille, beat Le Havre 3-2 and drew 0-0 with Troyes last Sunday, so they’ve failed to score in three of their four league games at the Stadium.
The Troyes draw ended Casper Tengstedt’s run. He went into that game with five league goals, two of them penalties, and had scored in four in a row, starting with the 2-2 at Lorient.
The goals behind him are spread around. Jacen Russell-Rowe and Thomas Jørgensen had two each before the Troyes game, and Russell-Rowe, Aron Dønnum and Tengstedt all scored in the 3-0 at Le Mans on 16 October.
That win at Le Mans was also Guillaume Restes’ first clean sheet of the season. Abu Francis has been struggling with a hamstring strain, while Askou has otherwise kept a settled side, with Restes behind Messali, McKenzie, Nicolaisen and Tapé.
Both of Toulouse’s league defeats came at home, against Lyon and Lille, who are currently fifth and third. The 2-2 at Monaco, fourth in the table, is the result I’d weigh most heavily.
Probable lineup Marseille: Not announced at time of publication
Probable lineup Toulouse: Not announced at time of publication
Free Ligue 1 Prediction: Marseille vs Toulouse
Our prediction: Toulouse double chance (draw or Toulouse win)
I’d take Toulouse on the double chance. They’re unbeaten in four away league games and have scored at least twice in every one of them, and Marseille conceded three in 13 minutes to the bottom side last weekend.
Marseille’s three straight league wins are the case against, along with the 1-0 win in Toulouse in March. Their 18 goals mean they’ll probably score.
That run came against Troyes, Angers and Le Havre, who sit 17th, 14th and 18th. Toulouse drew at Monaco and haven’t been beaten away, and a home side with two wins from its last five at the Vélodrome isn’t one I’d trust to keep them out.
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