- 1 Buffalo Bills vs Baltimore Ravens: a 135-point swing after halftime, and Lamar Jackson still a question
- 2 Buffalo Bills: 32.8 points a game, and a pass defense ranked 31st
- 3 Baltimore Ravens: 114 second-half points allowed and a sixth offensive line in seven games
- 4 Free NFL Prediction: Buffalo Bills vs Baltimore Ravens
- 5 About our free predictions
- 6 No commitment from us
- 7 Information changes
- 8 Your responsibility
- 9 Responsible gambling
- 10 Legal age
- 11 About visuals
Buffalo Bills vs Baltimore Ravens: a 135-point swing after halftime, and Lamar Jackson still a question 
Baltimore have outscored opponents by 65 points in first halves this season and been outscored by 70 after the break. According to ESPN Research, that 135-point swing is the second worst through seven games in NFL history, behind only the 1980 Rams.
Sunday’s 35-13 loss in Cincinnati was the latest example. The Ravens led 13-0 at halftime. The Bengals then scored touchdowns on their first five possessions of the second half.
Next up is a trip to Highmark Stadium, kickoff 1pm ET on Sunday 1 November, on CBS. Buffalo are 5-1, coming off a bye, and score 32.8 points per game, the most in the league. Baltimore are 4-3, and 1-2 in the three straight games Lamar Jackson has missed with a high ankle sprain.
Jackson was limited all of last week, carried a questionable tag and was scratched before kickoff against Cincinnati. Head coach Jesse Minter said on Monday he was hopeful, with a clearer picture due on Wednesday. Tyler Huntley started in his place and threw for 298 yards, one touchdown and one interception.
Buffalo opened at -2.5 and the number has moved to a field goal, with several books at -3.5. The total sits between 53.5 and 54.5.
I’m taking Buffalo: their defense has real problems, but a team that collapses the way Baltimore have after halftime is the wrong side to back against the league’s highest-scoring offense.
Buffalo Bills: 32.8 points a game, and a pass defense ranked 31st 
Josh Allen has 1,504 passing yards and nine touchdown passes through six games. In the 33-30 win over Las Vegas on 18 October, his last outing before the bye, he went 23 of 33 for 255 yards and two touchdowns without an interception.
The ground game carries just as much weight. James Cook has 627 rushing yards and six touchdowns, and he ran 22 times for 95 yards against the Raiders. Buffalo rank first in expected points added per play on offense and first in the same measure on the ground alone.
Defense is where Buffalo give it back: they allow 28.5 points per game, 30th in the NFL, and 285.8 passing yards per game, 31st. Opponents have thrown 15 touchdown passes against them. That’s the opening Baltimore will look at, healthy Jackson or not.
The Bills have also been loose with the ball, with nine giveaways in six games, four interceptions and five lost fumbles, against six takeaways. Each of their last three games was decided by exactly three points.
Safety C.J. Gardner-Johnson serves a one-game suspension, which thins out a secondary that already struggles. DJ Moore (shoulder) and Ed Oliver (knee) are both questionable.
The betting record is solid: 4-2 against the spread, 2-1 at home and 5-1 to the over. Buffalo have also scored more second-half points than any team since 2019, which is the exact window where Baltimore keep falling apart.
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Baltimore Ravens: 114 second-half points allowed and a sixth offensive line in seven games 
No team in the NFL has allowed more second-half points than Baltimore’s 114. Marlon Humphrey has given up 176 yards in fourth quarters alone, the worst figure in the league according to Next Gen Stats.
Baltimore’s offense has slipped too: they were a top-three rushing team through six weeks and still average 141.7 rushing yards per game, fourth in the league. They ran for 83 yards in Cincinnati, their second straight game under 100. Derrick Henry carried 17 times for 45 yards and is down to 3.9 yards per carry for the season.
Part of that is up front, where Baltimore’s top three centers are on injured reserve, rookie guard Olaivavega Ioane is doubtful with an MCL sprain, and Sunday will be the sixth different starting line the team has used this season.
Zay Flowers caught eight passes for 137 yards against the Bengals, and Huntley’s 23 of 34 for 298 yards was a respectable line for a backup. Baltimore have turned the ball over only five times all season, two interceptions and three lost fumbles.
The season scoring numbers aren’t bad: 24.1 points per game for, 23.9 against, 18th in the league. The timing of the points is what hurts. A team that leads at halftime and then leaks touchdowns on five straight drives can’t be trusted to protect a cover.
Against the spread, the Ravens are 2-4-1 for the season and 1-4 over their last five. They are 2-1 in true road games and 5-2 to the over.
Probable lineup Buffalo Bills: QB Josh Allen, RB James Cook, WR Keon Coleman, WR DJ Moore (questionable), DT Ed Oliver (questionable). S C.J. Gardner-Johnson suspended. Full depth chart not announced at time of publication.
Probable lineup Baltimore Ravens: QB Lamar Jackson (questionable, ankle) or Tyler Huntley, RB Derrick Henry, WR Zay Flowers, CB Marlon Humphrey. G Olaivavega Ioane doubtful. Full depth chart not announced at time of publication.
Free NFL Prediction: Buffalo Bills vs Baltimore Ravens
Our prediction: Buffalo Bills -3 at 1.83
Buffalo score 32.8 points per game, rank first in offensive EPA per play and have scored more second-half points than anyone since 2019. Baltimore have allowed a league-high 114 points after halftime and are 1-4 against the spread over their last five games.
The case against is Buffalo’s pass defense, 31st in yards allowed and now without Gardner-Johnson. If Jackson plays at full health, he can hurt that secondary. Even then, he’d be playing behind a sixth different offensive line, with no top-three center available and a run game that’s dropped under 100 yards in back-to-back weeks.
I’d rather lay -3 at 1.83 than -3.5, because a three-point finish is common in Buffalo’s games this season. A 30-23 type result, with the Bills pulling away late, fits everything both teams have done so far.
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