- 1 Manchester City vs Brighton & Hove Albion: the holders meet the league’s best attack twice in four days
- 2 Manchester City: Haaland on nine league goals, seven conceded in the last three home games
- 3 Brighton & Hove Albion: the only side to beat Arsenal this season, still without Mitoma
- 4 Free Football Prediction: Manchester City vs Brighton & Hove Albion
- 5 About our free predictions
- 6 No commitment from us
- 7 Information changes
- 8 Your responsibility
- 9 Responsible gambling
- 10 Legal age
- 11 About visuals
Manchester City vs Brighton & Hove Albion: the holders meet the league’s best attack twice in four days 
Brighton scored 23 goals in their first seven Premier League games, more than anyone in the division, and conceded five. Fabian Hürzeler’s side take that record to the Etihad on Wednesday 28 October for a Carabao Cup fourth-round tie, kick-off 7:30pm UK time on Sky Sports.
Manchester City are the holders and still top of the table on 21 points, but they lost for the first time in the league on Saturday, 2-1 at Aston Villa. Haaland scored their goal after 52 minutes, his ninth in the league this season.
The fixture list has an odd shape. The same two clubs meet again at the Etihad in the Premier League on Saturday 31 October, so both managers have to decide which of the two games matters more before they pick a side on Wednesday.
City’s recent home results point in two directions. They beat AEK Athens 5-1 and Ipswich 3-2, but conceded four to PSG in a 4-2 Champions League defeat on 14 October, when they trailed 3-0 at half-time. That was Enzo Maresca’s first loss since replacing Pep Guardiola.
Brighton went to Anfield on Sunday after a 0-0 draw at Jablonec in the Conference League, a game in which they had 26 shots. Before that they beat Crystal Palace 5-0 and Kauno Žalgiris 4-0.
City are around 1.67 to win, with the draw and Brighton both at 4.50. We’ve gone to the goals markets, where both sides’ recent output carries more weight than the price on the result.
Manchester City: Haaland on nine league goals, seven conceded in the last three home games 
City reached this round with a 5-0 win over Norwich in September. Samba scored twice on his debut, Allan also scored on his first appearance, and Cherki and McAidoo added the others, which tells us how far down the squad Maresca was willing to go in the third round.
The league record is W7 L1 after eight games, and the standout result was a 3-0 win at Liverpool on 11 October, with City’s goal difference at +11 even after the Villa defeat. Haaland leads the scoring chart with nine, Cherki has four, and Foden has found form in Europe with a hat-trick against AEK on 20 October, after scoring against Ipswich three days earlier.
The injury list has grown. Semenyo is out long-term, and Kovačić (knock), O’Reilly (back) and Nunes (muscle) were all forced off against Ipswich. Haaland sat out the AEK game after a knock, and Maresca said afterwards that five or six players “had a rest, which I’m happy with”.
That rotation is likely to continue. City travel to RB Leipzig in the Champions League on 4 November, so Wednesday falls in a run of four games in 12 days, and the league meeting with Brighton on Saturday is the bigger prize in the table.
The head-to-head record favours City, with 12 wins from the last 18 meetings against three for Brighton. The most recent, at the Etihad in January, finished 1-1.
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Brighton & Hove Albion: the only side to beat Arsenal this season, still without Mitoma 
Brighton’s run to this stage included a 3-2 win at Manchester United on 16 September, completed by substitute De Cuyper. Three days later they beat Arsenal 3-0, still the champions’ only defeat of the season.
The goals have come from all over the side. Gross, Kostoulas and Hinshelwood have three league goals each, and Yalcouyé, De Cuyper and Ayari have two apiece. Against Palace on 18 October five different players scored, one of them through a Canvot own goal.
The summer business reshaped the squad. Vušković arrived from Tottenham for £46m and Struijk from Leeds, while Baleba left for Manchester United for £65m and Welbeck joined Chelsea.
Hürzeler has absences to manage. Ferguson and Tzimas are long-term injuries, which leaves Kostoulas as the main option through the middle, and Mitoma, Azeez and Yohanna weren’t ready for Liverpool. Struijk, Wieffer and Minteh are close to returning, which would give him more options for a midweek side.
Brighton also play Conference League football on Thursdays, so this is their fourth game in 11 days. The 0-0 at Jablonec was the only one of their four games before Anfield in which they didn’t score.
Probable lineup Manchester City: Not announced at time of publication (rotation expected before Saturday’s league meeting)
Probable lineup Brighton & Hove Albion: Not announced at time of publication
Free Football Prediction: Manchester City vs Brighton & Hove Albion
Our prediction: Both teams to score (1.53)
We’re backing goals at both ends. City have conceded seven in their last three home games, against PSG, Ipswich and AEK, and they let in two more at Villa on Saturday. With Kovačić, O’Reilly and Nunes all coming off injured against Ipswich, a rotated City side is likely to be thinner in midfield and defence than usual.
Brighton scored 11 goals in their three games before Jablonec, against Sunderland, Kauno Žalgiris and Palace, and they have the most productive attack in the league. Their chances come from several players rather than one striker, so changes to their starting XI shouldn’t dry up the supply.
The risk is that both managers save their strongest sides for Saturday and the tie becomes a slow, low-scoring evening. We think the depth of both squads works against that, and both teams to score at 1.53 is our pick.
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