- 1 Fleetwood Town vs Arsenal: League Two’s 18th-placed side against the champions
- 2 Fleetwood Town: three cup clean sheets, 17 league goals conceded
- 3 Arsenal: Saka out for weeks and a fourth game in ten days
- 4 Free Football Prediction: Fleetwood Town vs Arsenal
- 5 About our free predictions
- 6 No commitment from us
- 7 Information changes
- 8 Your responsibility
- 9 Responsible gambling
- 10 Legal age
- 11 About visuals
Fleetwood Town vs Arsenal: League Two’s 18th-placed side against the champions 
Highbury Stadium holds 5,327 people, and on Tuesday night it hosts the Premier League champions for the first competitive meeting between these two clubs. Fleetwood Town are the lowest-ranked side left in the Carabao Cup, and this is the first time they’ve reached the fourth round.
Kick-off is 8pm UK time on Tuesday 27 October, live on Sky Sports. The winners go into the quarter-final draw.
Fleetwood got here with three home wins and three clean sheets: 1-0 against Chesterfield in August, 4-0 against Shrewsbury and 1-0 against Sheffield United on 16 September, settled by an own goal from Norrington-Davies. Before that Sheffield United tie, Matt Lawlor’s side were unbeaten in league and cup.
The league has been harder since. Fleetwood sit 18th in League Two with 14 points from 13 games, and they’ve lost three of their last five, including defeats at Cheltenham on 20 October and at Exeter on Saturday, where they went down 2-1.
Arsenal come in second in the Premier League on 21 points, level with Manchester City. They beat Everton 2-0 on Saturday, their third game in seven days after a 1-0 win at Nottingham Forest and a 2-2 draw at Bayern Munich, and they travel to Liverpool on 1 November.
The winner market offers nothing at around 1.07 to 1.10 on Arsenal. We’ve looked at the goals line instead, where the case is stronger than the size gap alone suggests.
Fleetwood Town: three cup clean sheets, 17 league goals conceded 
The cup run has leaned on defending. Fleetwood haven’t conceded in three ties, and Evans has scored in two of them, with the winner against Chesterfield after 14 minutes and two more against Shrewsbury.
League Two tells another story. Lawlor’s side have scored 15 and conceded 17 in 13 games, with three wins, five draws and five defeats. Their only wins in the last six games came against Barnsley (4-1 in the EFL Trophy on 6 October) and Rotherham (2-0 in the league on 17 October). At Exeter on Saturday they fell behind on 58 minutes, Coughlan equalised three minutes later and Exeter scored the winner on 64.
Coughlan has five league goals, the most in the squad. Loupalo-Bi, on loan from Fulham since 14 August, has two, and Davies scored in added time against Shrewsbury in the second round.
Lawlor has said he may need to rotate more with the fixtures piling up, but he called this “a showpiece game” and spoke about having “the best team in the country” coming to Highbury. Josh Thomas, signed from Swansea in the summer, is close to a return, and Cannon should be available soon.
Two more loanees sit in the squad: Robertson from Brighton until January, and Murphy from Bristol City. No new absentees were reported after the Exeter game.
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Arsenal: Saka out for weeks and a fourth game in ten days 
Bukayo Saka picked up a quad injury in Munich, and Mikel Arteta has said he’ll be out for weeks, with reports suggesting up to eight. Saliba (back) and Tzolis (hamstring) are also out, Hincapié is unavailable and Zubimendi is doubtful with an ankle problem.
Calafiori has what Arteta called a slight issue, which could keep him out on Tuesday. With Saka and Tzolis missing, Madueke and Eze are the only senior wingers available, and Arteta described the schedule after the Everton win as “terrible”.
Rotation was already likely. Arsenal have kept around 64% of their starting XI across the last six matches, and the side that started against Everton (Raya, White, Konsa, Gabriel, Lewis-Skelly, Rice, Ødegaard, Merino, Eze, Madueke, Gyökeres) will want a break before Anfield.
The third round showed what a mixed Arsenal side can do in this competition. At Ipswich on 15 September they went 4-0 up through two goals from Max Dowman, plus Madueke and Merino, before Ipswich pulled two back to finish 4-2.
League form has been steady rather than spectacular since the 3-0 defeat at Brighton on 19 September, their only loss of the season. In Munich, Eze opened the scoring and Rice equalised on 82 minutes after Kane’s penalty had put Bayern 2-1 up. Guimarães scored the winner against Leeds, Madueke struck after 80 minutes at Forest, and Konsa and Gabriel scored against Everton.
Probable lineup Fleetwood Town: Not announced at time of publication
Probable lineup Arsenal: Not announced at time of publication (heavy rotation expected, Dowman in contention)
Free Football Prediction: Fleetwood Town vs Arsenal
Our prediction: Over 3.5 goals (around 1.85)
We expect an Arsenal win, and the question is the margin rather than the result. A rotated Arsenal side scored four times at Premier League club Ipswich in the last round, and Fleetwood have conceded 17 goals in 13 League Two games, two of them at Exeter on Saturday.
Fleetwood’s cup clean sheets came against Chesterfield, Shrewsbury and Sheffield United, all at home and none of them close to this level. A side that has to commit players forward once it falls behind leaves space for Dowman, Madueke and whoever leads the line, and the Ipswich tie also showed that Arsenal’s fringe players can concede.
The risk is a low block holding out for an hour and Arsenal settling for two or three. We still think four goals is a fair line between these sides, and over 3.5 goals around 1.85 is our pick.
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