- 1 Los Angeles Chargers vs Houston Texans: 27 drives without an offensive touchdown
- 2 Los Angeles Chargers: 14.1 points a game, 32nd in the NFL
- 3 Houston Texans: Stroud’s 11 touchdowns against one interception, and a run game ranked 29th
- 4 Free NFL Prediction: Los Angeles Chargers vs Houston Texans
- 5 About our free predictions
- 6 No commitment from us
- 7 Information changes
- 8 Your responsibility
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Los Angeles Chargers vs Houston Texans: 27 drives without an offensive touchdown 
The Chargers have gone nine quarters and 27 straight drives without an offensive touchdown. That run includes all of last Sunday’s 24-9 loss to the Rams, and it leaves Los Angeles as the league’s only 0-7 team going into Sunday 8 November, 4:05pm ET at SoFi Stadium on CBS.
Houston is 2-5 and arrives off the bye. Its last game was a 27-21 overtime loss to the Giants on 25 October as a 10-point favorite, a defeat that ended two straight wins, and DeMeco Ryans has had two weeks to reset his team.
The Texans aren’t a good team either, and their rushing attack ranks 29th. The gap between them and Los Angeles is about ball security: Houston is +3 in turnover margin and the Chargers are -6.
The line has moved Houston’s way all week. The Texans opened at -3 and now sit at -4.5, with -5 at a couple of books, while the moneyline has gone from about 1.58 to 1.43 on Houston, with Los Angeles at 2.90.
The total opened at 42.5 and has dropped to 40.5. The Over is around 1.87 and the Under around 1.95, with -4.5 on Houston priced at 1.85.
Los Angeles Chargers: 14.1 points a game, 32nd in the NFL 
Justin Herbert has 1,398 yards, five touchdowns and 10 interceptions, and he’s been sacked 23 times. Those aren’t the numbers of a quarterback having a bad month: the same picture has held for seven games, and the offense has nine touchdowns in that time.
The Rams game showed all of it. Herbert went 24-of-32 for 257 yards and two interceptions, Los Angeles scored nine points on field goals, and it was shut out after halftime. It also turned four possessions that started at its own 40 or better into three points.
The offensive line is short. Rashawn Slater is on injured reserve after ankle surgery, though Joe Alt allowed no pressures against the Rams. Omarion Hampton has 308 rushing yards and three touchdowns, and the team ran for 64 yards on 25 carries last Sunday.
The receiving group has Ladd McConkey at 17 catches for 286 yards and Tre Harris at 18 catches for 256. David Njoku is likely to open his practice window, and Jim Harbaugh said Brenen Thompson isn’t likely to practice early in the week, with Deane Leonard in the concussion protocol.
The defense isn’t the issue. Los Angeles allows 25.0 points a game, 20th, and 198.4 passing yards, seventh, even without Derwin James on injured reserve. Tuli Tuipulotu and Khalil Mack have three sacks each, and that unit has kept most of these losses within reach.
The Chargers have thrown 10 interceptions and lost seven fumbles, 17 giveaways against 11 takeaways, and they’ve committed 57 penalties for 461 yards. Their 288.3 total yards a game ranks 28th, and only 111.1 of those come on the ground.
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Houston Texans: Stroud’s 11 touchdowns against one interception, and a run game ranked 29th 
C.J. Stroud has completed 64.8% of his passes for 1,867 yards with 11 touchdowns, one interception and a 100.7 passer rating. Set against Herbert’s five touchdowns and 10 picks, that’s the biggest single difference on the field.
His last game was a modest one: 17-of-28 for 153 yards and two touchdowns against the Giants. Houston gave up 188 rushing yards on 34 carries that day, 5.5 a rush, and lost in overtime. The offense has turned it over only three times all season.
The ground game is the weak spot. The Texans average 84.7 rushing yards, 29th, and Woody Marks has 271 yards on 77 carries, 3.5 a carry. They added running back Joshua Pitsenberger to the practice squad and released Deuce Vaughn on Monday, which doesn’t change much for this week.
Jaylin Noel leads the receivers with 331 yards, with Nico Collins at 329 and Dalton Schultz at 322. Tank Dell was questionable before the bye, and David Montgomery, Reed Blankenship, Jalen Pitre and Blake Fisher were all out for the Giants game.
Houston allows 24.3 points a game, 18th, and 244.0 passing yards, also 18th. Those two weeks off matter for the four players missing from that last game, and the injury report on Wednesday and Thursday will show how many of them are back.
Houston’s season totals are 2,367 offensive yards, 11 passing touchdowns and six rushing scores. Its 58 penalties for 508 yards are a higher count than the Chargers’, and the five-day forecast around SoFi Stadium, a covered venue, is mostly sunny in the mid-80s.
Probable lineup Los Angeles Chargers: Not announced at time of publication
Probable lineup Houston Texans: Not announced at time of publication
Free NFL Prediction: Los Angeles Chargers vs Houston Texans
Our prediction: Houston Texans -4.5 (1.85)
I’d take Houston at -4.5. The Chargers have gone 27 drives without an offensive touchdown, Herbert has twice as many interceptions as touchdowns, and the Texans have the bye and a +3 turnover margin against a -6.
The Los Angeles defense is 7th against the pass and Houston can’t run, so this won’t be pretty, and a winless team at home can always find one good afternoon. That’s why I’d stay away from the Over and wouldn’t touch the 1.43 moneyline.
A 14.1-point offense would need a turnover or two to stay inside this number. Stroud has thrown one interception in seven games, and a 24-16 type of score covers.
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