- 1 Seattle Seahawks vs Arizona Cardinals: Smith-Njigba’s seven 100-yard games and a double-digit divisional line
- 2 Seattle Seahawks: fifth in EPA allowed, and 1-for-11 on third down
- 3 Arizona Cardinals: three road wins, a new starter and a pass defense ranked 31st
- 4 Free NFL Prediction: Seattle Seahawks vs Arizona Cardinals
- 5 About our free predictions
- 6 No commitment from us
- 7 Information changes
- 8 Your responsibility
- 9 Responsible gambling
- 10 Legal age
- 11 About visuals
Seattle Seahawks vs Arizona Cardinals: Smith-Njigba’s seven 100-yard games and a double-digit divisional line 
Jaxon Smith-Njigba has gone over 100 receiving yards in seven of Seattle’s eight games. He has 64 catches for 985 yards and nine touchdowns, and three of those scores came in Arizona in Week 2, when he caught nine passes for 155 yards in a 31-7 win.
The rematch is on Sunday 8 November, 4:25pm ET at Lumen Field on FOX, and it comes with a different Cardinals quarterback. Mike LaFleur has named Gardner Minshew the starter after he replaced Jacoby Brissett in Dallas and went 17-of-23 for 188 yards and three touchdowns.
Arizona is 3-5 and won that game 33-30 in overtime after trailing 24-10 early in the fourth quarter. Michael Wilson caught the tying score with six seconds left, and Chad Ryland kicked the winner. All three Cardinals wins have come on the road.
Seattle is 4-4 and lost 34-17 at home to Chicago on Monday night, a game in which it gained 252 net yards and went 1-for-11 on third down. The week before, the Seahawks had beaten Kansas City 20-3.
Books don’t agree on this spread. Seattle is -10.5 at 1.95 on Arizona’s side at one end and -12.5 at the other, and the total has fallen from 45.5 to between 41.5 and 44.5. The moneyline is about 1.15 on Seattle and 5.80 on Arizona.
Seattle Seahawks: fifth in EPA allowed, and 1-for-11 on third down 
The defense is still the reason for this price. Seattle ranks fifth in EPA allowed per play and second in success rate, and it gives up 169.1 passing yards a game. Kansas City scored three points at Lumen Field two weeks ago.
The offense runs through one player far too often. Sam Darnold threw for 188 yards, two touchdowns and an interception against Chicago, and took three sacks. Smith-Njigba had six catches for 118 yards and a score in that game, and Cooper Kupp scored on his only catch.
Darnold has been below average in EPA per dropback this season, and when Seattle falls into long down-and-distance it leans heavily on Smith-Njigba. Chicago held the ball for more than 35 minutes on Monday, and a Seattle run game that’s been inefficient didn’t help.
The injury list is long. Rashid Shaheed, Charles Cross, Leonard Williams, Uchenna Nwosu, Brandon Pili, Velus Jones Jr. and Drew Lock are all questionable, and Cross at left tackle is the name that matters most for Darnold’s protection.
Seattle is 3-5 against the spread and has only six days between games. It has covered in nine of the last 10 meetings with Arizona, which is the strongest thing going for the Seahawks at this number.
Seattle’s quarterback picture has also changed since the first meeting. Drew Lock started that 31-7 win in Arizona, and Darnold starts this one, with Lock on the injury report as questionable.
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Arizona Cardinals: three road wins, a new starter and a pass defense ranked 31st 
Minshew led four straight touchdown drives in Dallas with no interceptions. Carson Beck is now the backup and Brissett the emergency third quarterback, after LaFleur’s decision to change starters.
Trey McBride has 66 catches for 544 yards and five touchdowns, and he had seven for 72 and a score against Dallas. He’s the steady target in an offense that ranks 13th in success rate and 19th in EPA per play.
Tyler Allgeier ran for 147 yards on 11 carries in Dallas, with runs of 63 and 52, and caught a touchdown. He may get more work, because Jeremiyah Love and Bam Knight both left that game and Love’s status remains unclear, with James Conner already on injured reserve.
Pass defense is the danger here. Arizona ranks 31st in EPA per dropback, and Smith-Njigba took it apart in September. The run defense is top-10 in EPA and the team has 19 sacks, with Josh Sweat coming up with one in overtime in Dallas.
Kendrick Bourne is out, and Michael Wilson, Walter Nolen III, Jon Gaines II and Jayden Williams are questionable. The Cardinals are 4-4 against the spread after playing the second-toughest schedule in the league so far, and they’ve won two of their last three as underdogs.
Arizona’s last three results were an 18-16 win over the Rams, a 30-16 loss to Denver and the overtime win in Dallas. That run shows a team capable of winning games it’s expected to lose, and of losing by two scores the week after.
Probable lineup Seattle Seahawks: Not announced at time of publication (Sam Darnold at quarterback)
Probable lineup Arizona Cardinals: Not announced at time of publication (Gardner Minshew confirmed as starting quarterback)
Free NFL Prediction: Seattle Seahawks vs Arizona Cardinals
Our prediction: Arizona Cardinals +10.5 (1.95)
I’d take Arizona at +10.5, and +11.5 or +12.5 if it’s available. Seattle just went 1-for-11 on third down, its quarterback is below average by EPA, and a double-digit number is a lot to lay with an offense that leans on one receiver in a game with rain in the forecast.
Seattle’s 31-7 win in Week 2 and its 9-1 record against the spread in the last 10 meetings are the honest case against. That September game was in Arizona, though, and Minshew has just led four straight touchdown drives.
The Seahawks can win this by a touchdown and still lose the bet. I can’t see a 4-4 team that scored 17 at home on Monday pulling 11 points clear of a rival that’s won three times on the road.
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