- 1 Indianapolis Colts vs Dallas Cowboys: Jones keeps the job after a 42-7 benching
- 2 Indianapolis Colts: four straight losses and 27.8 points allowed a game
- 3 Dallas Cowboys: 27.4 points a game and a defense that won’t let a lead stand
- 4 Free NFL Prediction: Indianapolis Colts vs Dallas Cowboys
- 5 About our free predictions
- 6 No commitment from us
- 7 Information changes
- 8 Your responsibility
- 9 Responsible gambling
- 10 Legal age
- 11 About visuals
Indianapolis Colts vs Dallas Cowboys: Jones keeps the job after a 42-7 benching 
Daniel Jones was pulled in the fourth quarter of a 42-7 loss in Jacksonville, and on Monday Shane Steichen said he’s still the starter. Jones went 19-of-28 for 144 yards with a touchdown and two interceptions before Anthony Richardson replaced him, and he’ll start against Dallas on Sunday 8 November, 1:00pm ET at Lucas Oil Stadium on FOX.
Indianapolis is 2-6 and has lost four straight. The Colts have scored 17 points across their last two games, the 42-7 defeat and a 16-10 loss to Minnesota the week before.
The roster got thinner in the same stretch. Indianapolis traded All-Pro guard Quenton Nelson to Seattle and defensive tackle DeForest Buckner to San Francisco in the days before the Jacksonville game, and the on-field result followed.
Dallas is 3-5 and has scored 68 points in two games. Those two results were a 38-21 win over Philadelphia and a 33-30 overtime loss to Arizona, a game the Cowboys led by 10 with 3:54 left in regulation.
The Cowboys are favored by 5.5 to 6 points on the road, with -6 priced at 1.93. The moneyline is about 1.38 on Dallas and 3.15 on Indianapolis, and the total is 51.5.
Indianapolis Colts: four straight losses and 27.8 points allowed a game 
Steichen said Jones gives the team its best chance to win and pointed to preparation and command of the offense. That’s a lukewarm endorsement after he’d declined to commit on the day of the loss, and Richardson is one more bad half away from getting another look.
Jones tore his Achilles midway through the 2025 season and signed a two-year, $88 million extension on 11 March. His career record as a starter is 34-54-1, and the contract explains part of why the Colts aren’t moving on yet.
The offense scores 20.1 points a game and has Alec Pierce on injured reserve. Anthony Gould, Justin Walley and Bryce Boettcher are listed as questionable.
Defense is where this team has really gone wrong. Indianapolis allows 27.8 points a game, in the league’s bottom six, and it’s lost Cam Taylor-Britt and Arden Key to injured reserve on top of the Buckner trade.
The Colts are 4-4 against the spread, and five of their eight games have gone Over. A team that’s lost by 35 and scored seven the same afternoon needs more than a change of opponent, and Dallas has reached 30 in back-to-back weeks.
Jones was the sixth pick of the 2019 draft and was released by the Giants 10 games into the 2024 season. Indianapolis scored one touchdown in Jacksonville, and it allowed 42 points the same afternoon.
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Dallas Cowboys: 27.4 points a game and a defense that won’t let a lead stand 
Dak Prescott has 2,046 passing yards, fifth in the NFL, with 14 touchdowns and five interceptions. He hasn’t thrown a pick in two weeks, and he had a passing touchdown and a rushing touchdown against Arizona.
Dallas scores 27.4 points a game, seven more than Indianapolis. The Over is 6-2 in Cowboys games, and that’s the clearest summary of a team whose offense and defense have been working on different levels all season.
The defense allows 26.6 points a game, and its collapse against Arizona was the worst of it. Dallas led 24-10 early in the fourth quarter and gave up the tying score with six seconds left before losing on a field goal in overtime. The Cowboys have lost three of their last four.
The injury report needs a close look. Tight ends Jake Ferguson and Luke Schoonmaker, returner KaVontae Turpin, linebacker Dee Winters and safety Caleb Downs are all listed as questionable, and losing Ferguson would remove a big piece of Prescott’s short passing game.
Dallas is 4-4 against the spread, the same as Indianapolis, so the market hasn’t been fooled by either team. Laying six on the road isn’t something a 3-5 team usually earns, and the Colts’ last month is the reason it’s happening here.
The total of 51.5 fits these two teams. Both rank in the league’s bottom six in points allowed, the Over has landed in 11 of their 16 combined games, and Dallas’s two most recent games produced 59 and 63 points. The Colts’ 17 points in two weeks puts a lot on one offense to get there, so the Over is the alternative here and not the main play.
Probable lineup Indianapolis Colts: Not announced at time of publication (Daniel Jones confirmed as starting quarterback)
Probable lineup Dallas Cowboys: Not announced at time of publication (Dak Prescott at quarterback)
Free NFL Prediction: Indianapolis Colts vs Dallas Cowboys
Our prediction: Dallas Cowboys -6 (1.93)
I’d lay the six at 1.93. Dallas has a seven-point scoring edge on the season and a quarterback with no interceptions in two weeks, against a Colts team that’s scored 17 in two games and just traded away two of its best linemen.
The Cowboys’ 26.6 points allowed is a good reason for caution, and they couldn’t protect a 10-point lead with under four minutes left a week ago. Indianapolis is also 4-4 against the spread, so it hasn’t always lost by much.
Jones threw two picks on 28 attempts last week, and a quarterback who was benched six days earlier isn’t what I want to back against an offense scoring 34 a game over its last two. Dallas at -5.5 is the better number if it’s still available.
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