- 1 Bayer Leverkusen vs Nurnberg: Klose’s side lose their 7-goal striker before a trip to the BayArena
- 2 Bayer Leverkusen: one goal conceded at home in the league, and Schick on six
- 3 Nurnberg: 27 shots and no goal without Zoma, four games without a win
- 4 Free Football Prediction: Bayer Leverkusen vs Nurnberg
- 5 About our free predictions
- 6 No commitment from us
- 7 Information changes
- 8 Your responsibility
- 9 Responsible gambling
- 10 Legal age
- 11 About visuals
Bayer Leverkusen vs Nurnberg: Klose’s side lose their 7-goal striker before a trip to the BayArena
Mohamed Ali Zoma has scored seven goals in the 2. Bundesliga this season, joint-most in the division, and he won’t play again until the winter break. The Nurnberg striker hurt his shoulder in the 1-1 draw at Energie Cottbus and needs surgery, and on Saturday his team found out what that means.
Nurnberg had 27 shots against Kaiserslautern at home and didn’t score once. Erencan Yardimci’s goal on 58 minutes gave the visitors a 1-0 win, Nurnberg’s first league defeat of the season, and it leaves Miroslav Klose’s side four league games without a win.
Next for them is Bayer Leverkusen in the second round of the DFB-Pokal, on Wednesday 28 October at the BayArena, kick-off 7:45pm UK time. It’s a single match, so a draw after 90 minutes goes to extra time and then penalties.
Nurnberg are still second in the second tier, with 18 points from nine games and 21 goals scored, but Hertha BSC are seven points clear and Kaiserslautern have drawn level. Leverkusen were fourth in the Bundesliga with 13 points from six games going into the weekend, and they’d scored in every league match.
The gap between the divisions is the obvious part of this tie. The less obvious part is where Nurnberg’s goals came from, and how much of that output walks out of the side with Zoma, and I think it’s most of it.
Bayer Leverkusen: one goal conceded at home in the league, and Schick on six 
Carles Martinez took over in June, after three seasons in charge of Toulouse, replacing Kasper Hjulmand. His first competitive game was this competition’s opening round on 22 August, and Leverkusen won 4-0 at Wehen Wiesbaden.
The league numbers since then are split sharply by venue. Leverkusen had conceded nine goals in their first six Bundesliga games, and eight of those came in three away matches. That leaves one goal conceded in three league games at the BayArena.
Patrik Schick leads the attack with six league goals from 23 shots, and Leverkusen had scored 16 times in six matches before the weekend. Miguel Gutierrez has three assists from left-back, while Ibrahim Maza and Aleix Garcia have created 16 chances each, so the supply doesn’t rely on one player.
Their form going into the weekend was four wins and a draw from five league games, the latest win a 2-1 against Freiburg. In the Europa League they won 2-0 at OFI Crete, with Jonas Hofmann scoring both goals, and Hofmann is the kind of player Martinez can bring in when he rotates for a cup tie.
Wednesday comes three days after Sunday’s trip to Hoffenheim, so changes are likely. Christian Kofane, who has two league goals, is one of the players who could get a start, and a side of that quality at home to a team without its top scorer should still be strong enough to control the game.
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Nurnberg: 27 shots and no goal without Zoma, four games without a win 
Klose’s team had gone unbeaten in the league until Saturday, and their games have rarely been quiet. The 4-4 with Wolfsburg on 10 October showed both sides of them: 2-0 down at half-time, they led 3-2 after Piet Scobel scored on 52 and 59 minutes and Zoma added a third on 63.
That game also showed how they defend late. Alessio Besio scored twice for Wolfsburg in stoppage time, either side of Ioannis Masouras’s goal in the 96th minute, and a win that would have taken Nurnberg top turned into a draw.
The draws kept coming after that, including the 1-1 at Cottbus where Zoma was injured. Then came Saturday’s defeat to Kaiserslautern, with 27 shots and no goal. Klose said afterwards that he couldn’t blame his players, who’d “left their hearts on the pitch”, and that they simply hadn’t scored.
Scobel, with five league goals, now becomes the main threat, and Nurnberg have still scored 21 times in nine games. They’ve also conceded 12, which works out at more than one a game against second-tier opponents.
Leverkusen play a division above them, and Nurnberg will face them without the striker who scored a third of their league goals. On the evidence of Saturday they don’t yet have a replacement who finishes the chances the team creates.
Probable lineup Bayer Leverkusen: Not announced at time of publication
Probable lineup Nurnberg: Not announced at time of publication
Free Football Prediction: Bayer Leverkusen vs Nurnberg
Our prediction: Bayer Leverkusen to win by two or more goals (Asian handicap -1.5)
A Bundesliga side at home to a team from the division below rarely offers value on the straight win, so the handicap is where I’d look. Leverkusen have conceded once at home in the league, they won their opening cup tie 4-0 away from home, and they’ve scored in every Bundesliga game this season.
Nurnberg’s attacking record is the argument against: 21 goals in nine league games is a lot, and they’ll probably create chances on the break. But Zoma scored seven of those goals and he’s out until the winter, and Saturday’s 27 shots without a goal show the problem that leaves.
Nurnberg have also conceded in stoppage time to lose points before, and a cup tie against a deeper squad tends to open up late. I’d back Leverkusen to win by at least two goals inside 90 minutes.
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