- 1 Bradford City vs Peterborough United: four league games under Duff, no goals conceded
- 2 Bradford City: the meanest defence in League One, and a forward line still looking for goals
- 3 Peterborough United: Savage’s open game has leaked late goals
- 4 Free Football Prediction: Bradford City vs Peterborough United
- 5 About our free predictions
- 6 No commitment from us
- 7 Information changes
- 8 Your responsibility
- 9 Responsible gambling
- 10 Legal age
- 11 About visuals
Bradford City vs Peterborough United: four league games under Duff, no goals conceded 
Michael Duff has taken charge of four League One games at Bradford City, and nobody has scored against his side in any of them. A goalless draw with Leyton Orient was followed by a 2-0 win over Stevenage, and then two more 0-0 draws away at Burton Albion and Oxford United inside five days.
Peterborough United arrive at Valley Parade on Tuesday 27 October, kick-off 7:45pm UK time, for a place in the last eight of the Carabao Cup. They’re 21st in League One with 10 points from 12 games, and they’ve conceded 21 goals, more than four times Bradford’s total of five.
That gap between the two defences is the starting point for any read of this tie. Bradford sit third, a point behind Stockport and three behind leaders Huddersfield, and they’ve done it with only 10 league goals. They win games by not losing them, and that’s been true for most of the season, before and after the change of manager.
Both clubs have already had a cup run worth talking about. Bradford knocked out Rochdale 2-0, then Championship side Burnley on penalties after a goalless draw, and won 3-1 at Leyton Orient in the third round. Peterborough won 1-0 at Bristol Rovers, 5-1 at Watford, and got past Barnsley on penalties after a 3-3 draw.
The sides met in the league on 15 August at this ground, and Bradford won 2-0. That stretched their unbeaten run against Peterborough to seven games in all competitions, three wins and four draws. I don’t think a cup night changes the pattern much, for reasons that have more to do with how Peterborough defend than with anything Bradford do going forward.
Bradford City: the meanest defence in League One, and a forward line still looking for goals 
Five goals conceded in 12 league games is the lowest total in the division. The next best, Oxford United, have let in 10. Jon McCracken, signed on a free from Dundee in July, has been central to that, and at Oxford on Saturday he parried Gatlin O’Donkor’s shot after two minutes when the forward was clean through.
Bradford have scored only 10 league goals, and they had chances at the Kassam Stadium: Kayden Jackson was smothered by Jamie Cumming in the six-yard box before half-time, and George Lapslie shot straight at the same goalkeeper after Jackson set him up. Three 0-0 draws in Duff’s first four league matches show where the work still needs doing.
Duff’s only league win so far came against Stevenage on 17 October, and it turned on his bench. Substitute Nick Powell won the penalty that Antoni Sarcevic converted, and the second goal came after more good work from substitutes, Stephen Humphrys among them. Duff said afterwards that the club was overachieving on expected goals and on its budget, and that the squad had been “built on its mentality”.
That mentality has carried them through the cup too. The Burnley tie in August finished goalless before Bradford went through on penalties, and the third-round win at Brisbane Road brought goals from Will Swan, Humphrys and Powell. They also won 4-0 at Rotherham in the EFL Trophy on 6 October, so the goals do come when the opposition gives them space.
The fixture list gives Duff something to think about. Callum Connolly picked up his fifth yellow card of the season at Oxford and will miss Saturday’s league game against Huddersfield, which is the bigger match of the week in the table. Loanee Kieran Morgan, who arrived from QPR on 31 August, played only nine minutes on Saturday and could get a start here if Duff rotates.
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Peterborough United: Savage’s open game has leaked late goals 
Robbie Savage’s side play on the front foot, and that approach has produced both their best and worst results since he took over. They beat Ipswich Town’s under-21s 4-1 in the EFL Trophy and won 3-1 at Leicester City on 10 October, then drew 2-2 at home to Burton Albion.
The cost showed at Huddersfield on 20 October. Peterborough were 1-0 down from the third minute, Harry Leonard equalised on 68, and then Huddersfield scored three times in the last 25 minutes to win 4-1. Joe Taylor scored twice and Bali Mumba once, and former Posh players Taylor, Mumba and Archie Collins were involved in all four goals as Peterborough pushed men forward and left space behind.
Saturday’s 1-1 draw at Bromley needed a stoppage-time goal. Michael Cheek put the hosts ahead after 10 minutes and Peterborough didn’t find a way through until Vernon Masara scored in the 93rd minute, set up by Owura Edwards. Goalkeeper Alex Bass made several saves before that, including one from Nicke Kabamba’s header.
Before Savage’s arrival the scoring had dried up altogether. Peterborough lost 2-0 at home to Doncaster Rovers and 1-0 at Stockport County, and they’ve won two of their 12 league games. Only Bromley, Barnsley and Wigan sit below them in the table.
Peterborough’s cup form has been better than their league form. The 5-1 win at Watford in the second round remains their biggest result of the season, and the penalty shoot-out win over Barnsley came after a 3-3 draw. Both of those games had plenty of goals, and Peterborough have scored in each of their last three league outings, so they’ll probably create something at Valley Parade. A side that’s conceded 21 league goals will find it harder to keep Bradford out for 90 minutes.
Probable lineup Bradford City: Not announced at time of publication
Probable lineup Peterborough United: Not announced at time of publication
Free Football Prediction: Bradford City vs Peterborough United
Our prediction: Bradford City to win in 90 minutes
Bradford have conceded five league goals all season and none under Duff, while Peterborough have let in four at Huddersfield alone this month. The last meeting between them, on 15 August at Valley Parade, ended 2-0 to Bradford, and Peterborough haven’t beaten them in any of the last seven meetings.
The case against is easy to state: Bradford have drawn 0-0 three times in four league games, and a stalemate here goes straight to penalties. I’d still back them inside 90 minutes, because Peterborough’s open style gives up the kind of space Bradford’s substitutes used against Stevenage on 17 October.
Savage’s side have shown they can score, but they’ve conceded at least once in each of the five matches listed above. Against the league’s tightest defence, at home, I expect Bradford to find one or two goals and keep the visitors to no more than one.
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